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The next two years will be chaotic for PMs
“It's going to be chaos. Our industry is very much in stress. Nothing's constant. Everyone's in a state of alert. If you talk to product leaders three years ago, their day was largely moving information. The information mover is essentially going to become a dinosaur. The skills that used to be really valued in product managers are changing substantially.”
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Companies will shed staff and rehire AI-first builders
“In the next 12 to 24 months, we're going to see massive shedding of staffs and then massive rehiring. You might see a company shed 30,000 and hire 8,000, but the 8,000 people are going to all be AI first. The builders are going to have the time of their lives, but if you don't love building stuff, you're in trouble.”
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Information movers are becoming obsolete dinosaurs
“When we first had chatted, it was the ZERP era, zero interest, free money from investors was just cresting. If you really talk to product leaders that were in that mode maybe three years ago, they weren't very happy. Their day was largely a day of moving information from one to another. Let me frame the way that my team is presenting the information to my boss so that that person can frame it to their boss' boss. That function had become extremely focused on responsibility without authority.”
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Mid-career product managers face historic levels of stress
“That generation is insanely stressed historically. Between your health, the family and friends that you hardly ever see, your parents, which are now worrying because you have to build a different relationship with them, they're becoming dependents, your actual dependents with your kids, and then, oh, by the way, your work, which will take whatever time you have, but it also changes all the time. Now we're like, hey, stay up, what's the latest in Cloud Code? They change it this morning. It's dizzying.”
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Successful PMs prioritize building over coordination
“What's changed is people are having fun again, particularly product folks, because they're able to build. They don't have to rely on as many people to have impact. There's much more of a direct connection to their ideas and their ability to test and connect their product instincts to their customers. In many ways, this is a complete renaissance for the product industry.”