Why half of product managers are in trouble | Nikhyl Singhal (Meta, Google)

Key Takeaways

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  The next two years will be chaotic for PMs

  “It's going to be chaos. Our industry is very much in stress. Nothing's constant. Everyone's in a state of alert. If you talk to product leaders three years ago, their day was largely moving information. The information mover is essentially going to become a dinosaur. The skills that used to be really valued in product managers are changing substantially.”

• •

  Companies will shed staff and rehire AI-first builders

  “In the next 12 to 24 months, we're going to see massive shedding of staffs and then massive rehiring. You might see a company shed 30,000 and hire 8,000, but the 8,000 people are going to all be AI first. The builders are going to have the time of their lives, but if you don't love building stuff, you're in trouble.”

• •

  Information movers are becoming obsolete dinosaurs

  “When we first had chatted, it was the ZERP era, zero interest, free money from investors was just cresting. If you really talk to product leaders that were in that mode maybe three years ago, they weren't very happy. Their day was largely a day of moving information from one to another. Let me frame the way that my team is presenting the information to my boss so that that person can frame it to their boss' boss. That function had become extremely focused on responsibility without authority.”

• •

  Mid-career product managers face historic levels of stress

  “That generation is insanely stressed historically. Between your health, the family and friends that you hardly ever see, your parents, which are now worrying because you have to build a different relationship with them, they're becoming dependents, your actual dependents with your kids, and then, oh, by the way, your work, which will take whatever time you have, but it also changes all the time. Now we're like, hey, stay up, what's the latest in Cloud Code? They change it this morning. It's dizzying.”

• •

  Successful PMs prioritize building over coordination

  “What's changed is people are having fun again, particularly product folks, because they're able to build. They don't have to rely on as many people to have impact. There's much more of a direct connection to their ideas and their ability to test and connect their product instincts to their customers. In many ways, this is a complete renaissance for the product industry.”

Episode Description

Nikhyl Singhal is the founder of The Skip, a community for senior product leaders; a former product exec at Meta, Google, and Credit Karma; and a many-time founder. He’s also one of the most honest, unfiltered voices on what’s actually happening in product management right now.In our in-depth conversation, we discuss:1. Why the next two years will be the most chaotic period in product management history2. Why half of current product managers are at risk, and what separates those who’ll do well3. Why you need to find your “moments of joy” with AI4. The “smiling exhaustion” he’s seeing across the product community5. The psychological barriers that prevent people from reinventing themselves6. Why your resume’s fancy logos matter less than ever, and what matters now7. His prediction that companies will shed 30,000 people and rehire 8,000—all AI-first—Brought to you by:WorkOS (https://workos.com/lenny)—Modern identity platform for B2B SaaS, free up to 1 million MAUsVanta (https://vanta.com/lenny)—Automate compliance, manage risk, and accelerate trust with AI—Episode transcript: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/why-half-of-product-managers-are-in-trouble (https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/why-half-of-product-managers-are-in-trouble)—Archive of all Lenny's Podcast transcripts: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/yxi4s2w998p1gvtpu4193/AMdNPR8AOw0lMklwtnC0TrQ?rlkey=j06x0nipoti519e0xgm23zsn9&st=ahz0fj11&dl=0 (https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/yxi4s2w998p1gvtpu4193/AMdNPR8AOw0lMklwtnC0TrQ?rlkey=j06x0nipoti519e0xgm23zsn9&st=ahz0fj11&dl=0)—Where to find Nikhyl Singhal:• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nikhyl (https://www.linkedin.com/in/nikhyl)• X: https://x.com/nikhyl (https://x.com/nikhyl)• Podcast & Newsletter: https://skip.show (https://skip.show)• Skip Community: https://skip.community (https://skip.community)• Skip Coach: https://skip.coach (https://skip.coach)• Skip.help (http://Skip.help): https://skip.help (https://skip.help)—Where to find Lenny:• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com (https://www.lennysnewsletter.com)• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan (https://twitter.com/lennysan)• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/ (https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/)—In this episode, we cover:(00:00) Introduction to Nikhyl Singhal(02:25) The big picture: what’s changing for product managers(10:00) Are product leaders doing better than 2-3 years ago?(11:44) What will change in the next couple of years(14:23) How companies are changing the way they build products(15:51) What “judgment” really means for PMs(17:46) Why there won’t be any more bad software(20:25) The skills you need to be effective today(23:31) Why there are more PM roles than ever(24:27) The builder versus information-mover divide(30:14) The non-builder problem(30:53) Should PMs code?(34:15) Why experienced leaders still matter(35:44) The diversity setback nobody’s talking about(37:21) Why your brand doesn’t matter as much anymore(39:54) How valued skills are flipping upside down(40:49) Why change is so hard for humans(43:53) The “equal disappointment” algorithm(46:39) You must cross the threshold(48:37) This chaos will settle(53:19) Finding your moment of joy(58:50) Nikhyl’s AI stack and what he’s building(1:00:53) The obsolescence mindset(1:05:24) Specific advice for PMs right now(1:08:58) The four jobs that will exist in the future(1:11:59) Why alignment is changing (but not disappearing)(1:15:40) How engineering is changing even more than PM(1:17:04) The surprising design plateau(1:18:49) Finding optimism in the chaos(1:21:12) Lightning round—Referenced:• Building a long and meaningful career | Nikhyl Singhal (Meta, Google): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/building-a-long-and-meaningful-career (https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/building-a-long-and-meaningful-career)• COBOL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COBOL (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COBOL)• United Airlines: https://www.united.com (https://www.united.com)• State of the product job market in early 2026: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/state-of-the-product-job-market-in-ee9 (https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/state-of-the-product-job-market-in-ee9)• Head of Growth (Anthropic): “Claude is growing itself at this point” | Amol Avasare: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/anthropics-1b-to-19b-growth-run (https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/anthropics-1b-to-19b-growth-run)• Demis Hassabis on X: https://x.com/demishassabis (https://x.com/demishassabis)• Sam Altman on X: https://x.com/sama (https://x.com/sama)• Dario Amodei on X: https://x.com/DarioAmodei (https://x.com/DarioAmodei)• Cross on Prime Video: https://www.amazon.com/Cross-Season-1/dp/B0D6X7ZZHC (https://www.amazon.com/Cross-Season-1/dp/B0D6X7ZZHC)• Jack Ryan on Prime Video: https://www.amazon.com/Tom-Clancys-Jack-Ryan/dp/B0CNDCMN8R (https://www.amazon.com/Tom-Clancys-Jack-Ryan/dp/B0CNDCMN8R)• 24 on Prime Video: https://www.amazon.com/24-Season-1/dp/B000HPF85A (https://www.amazon.com/24-Season-1/dp/B000HPF85A)• Claude Code: https://code.claude.com (https://code.claude.com)• Codex: https://chatgpt.com/codex (https://chatgpt.com/codex)• Lovable: https://lovable.dev (https://lovable.dev)• Sonos: https://www.sonos.com (https://www.sonos.com)• “There are only four jobs” on X: https://x.com/yrechtman/status/2039012253341495462 (https://x.com/yrechtman/status/2039012253341495462)• Paradise on Hulu: https://www.hulu.com/series/paradise-2b4b8988-50c9-4097-bf93-bc34a99a5b4f (https://www.hulu.com/series/paradise-2b4b8988-50c9-4097-bf93-bc34a99a5b4f)• Lioness on Paramount+: https://www.paramountplus.com/shows/lioness (https://www.paramountplus.com/shows/lioness)• Tesla: https://www.tesla.com (https://www.tesla.com)• Albert Einstein’s quote: https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/115696-genius-is-1-talent-and-99-percent-hard-work (https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/115696-genius-is-1-talent-and-99-percent-hard-work)—Recommended books:• James: https://www.amazon.com/James-Novel-Percival-Everett/dp/0385550367 (https://www.amazon.com/James-Novel-Percival-Everett/dp/0385550367)• The Adventures of Huckleberry Finn: https://www.amazon.com/Adventures-Huckleberry-Finn-Unabridged-Uncensored/dp/195483943X (https://www.amazon.com/Adventures-Huckleberry-Finn-Unabridged-Uncensored/dp/195483943X)—Production and marketing by https://penname.co/ (https://penname.co/). For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com (mailto:podcast@lennyrachitsky.com).—Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed. To hear more, visit www.lennysnewsletter.com (https://www.lennysnewsletter.com?utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=show-notes-no-free-preview-language)