MONITOR SPEND

“RAMP data suggested that Anthropic now captures 73% of all spending among companies buying AI tools. The marginal buyer in the last 6-8-10 weeks has massively shifted, which is obviously the most leading indicator. People in the market today for a new AI went 70% on Anthropic. I think the data was good and the conclusion is real.”

“When we started this pod, OpenAI seemed invincible no matter what Anthropic did. It seemed and everything you can just smell this era, this air of desperation. OpenAI, I'm getting whiplash from everything. And the Debbie Downer-ism, it's not going to last. I actually don't want to try their new products because of it.”

“SpaceX at $2 trillion after Tarifab, the debrief on Grok's $20 billion deal to Nvidia, and much, much more. SpaceX at $2 Trillion: Elon's Insane Plan to Build Data Centers in Space. We explore how they are leveraging their launch capabilities to dominate the infrastructure layer of the space economy.”

“Jeff Bezos seeks $100 billion for his latest project. Jeff Bezos' $100 Billion Fund: The End of 'Doing It the Hard Way'. We look at the scale required to compete today and why the traditional paths to building massive enterprises are being rewritten by the world's wealthiest individuals.”

“Who the hell is going to buy them if they don't IPO? I just worry there's some ratio of potential acquirers divided by unicorns, and I think we're at the lowest ratio of our careers. I just don't believe the hyperscalers are going to buy these companies. Basically, it's win or die. I would have a code red on this.”

“Now, on the trading side that you mentioned, yes, the war did help. I do think, though, that trading was already tracking—the markets businesses were already tracking to pretty good results even before the war. On average, I think you had 17% year-on-year growth overall. As you mentioned, equities was a particular standout. I think one of the big questions, though, as we go forward is how durable these results are, especially in markets.”

“Historically high volatility has not been good for investment banking, but it has been good for sales and trading. But right now, we're hitting on all cylinders where trading results are really strong and benefiting from volatility, but it's not undermining deal-making. I think a lot of corporates have now come to the conclusion that volatility may be a feature of the system as opposed to a bug and have to continue investing and raising capital and doing deals.”

“But the business has changed some, so it's not just intermediation, which you're talking about, but there's a financing piece of it. Things like prime brokerage and where investment banks are providing loans to hedge funds, that has grown a lot. If you look at the segment disclosures, for example, and you look at the markets businesses and the size of the balance sheets of these businesses, they are growing quite a bit. And that tends to be a little bit more durable than the intermediation side.”

“Unemployment is really important here. As long as people are employed and wages are going up, they're spending. We hear a lot about the two-speed economy and the K-shaped economy. I think a better way to frame it is an E-shaped economy, where the high end is growing more, spending more than the low end. But there's no delta, there's no inflection in terms of the trends right now. There's not a worsening at the low end. It's kind of stable.”

“In the earnings call, several of the CEOs struck a notably cautious tone as geopolitical uncertainty lingers. Jamie Dimon warned of wars, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon also pointed out heightened uncertainty in parts of private credit and the conflict in the Middle East. And Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser warned that one great first quarter does not a full year make.”

“And while we can make up some of that gap, because countries and companies have stockpiles, we can sort of like massage it a little bit here and there for the moment. The longer this situation goes on, the longer the tankers can't make it out of the Strait of Hormuz, the longer that 10% will continue compounding. And the longer that the supply disruption will end up rippling through the global economy.”

“So year-over-year inflation through the CPI index, which is a broad measurement of inflation, is up 3.3% from a year ago. And the Federal Reserve uses 2% as a target for where it wants inflation to be. Even before the war with Iran started, inflation was above that target level. And what we have now is an energy shock that is sending gasoline and diesel prices on one of their steepest climbs in decades, if not ever.”

“We are a net exporter of energy. We are the largest oil producer the world has ever seen. So why the heck am I paying higher gasoline prices when all of this is happening 7,000 miles away? The reason why is oil is the most global market. So we are a huge exporter of crude oil, of gasoline, of jet fuel, mainly from the US Gulf Coast. So that tethers us to the global market in a really big way.”

“There was a survey from the University of Michigan. It was the lowest ever in 74 years of the survey taking place. And so some of that might be an overreaction in vibes because the economy was pretty strong coming into this. But the direction of travel, how fast that plummeted in just one month as people were seeing those price increases in the gas station, that just goes to show that people hate this.”

“Natural gas, which is a huge part of what the Middle East exports in terms of energy, that is key for global power generation. It's key for air conditioning. It's also a key input for manufacturers around the world. If we're thinking about companies that build everything from chips to companies that create steel and need high heat, to companies that produce fertilizer for farming, all of that requires an immense amount of natural gas.”

“You cannot have a Iran. Pope Leo would not be happy with the end result. You have hundreds of millions of people dead, and it's not gonna happen. So I can't, I think he's very weak on crime and other things. So I'm not I mean, he he went public. I'm just responding to Pope Leo.”

“Israel says that it will have full control of the Lebanese town of Bin Shabeel, quote, within days. The town has become the center of intense fighting. It's part of land that Israel says it's seizing from Lebanon to create what it calls a buffer zone so Hezbollah can't fire rockets into Israel.”

“US Southern Command posted grainy videos on social media showing explosions that destroyed two small boats alleged to be smuggling drugs. Many legal experts say these strikes amount to execution without trial or simply murder, and some allies in South America and Europe have stopped sharing some intelligence with the US military as a result.”

“Canadian prime minister Mark Carney has secured a parliamentary majority. His Liberal party won the majority Monday night following two special election victories. Carney has said that a win would help him deal more effectively with the trade war started by president Trump.”

“In a statement, James says an investigation found people arriving at New York Presbyterian's hospitals in New York City received inadequate care that, quote, put vulnerable patients at risk. Her report alleges people with mental illness weren't properly screened. And in some cases, patients who appear to pose serious risks to themselves or others were left unsupervised or received no care.”

“The latest jobs report suggests an economy that is still running hot.”

“The Iran war is a major wildcard for the global economic outlook.”

“OpenAI and Anthropic are burning through cash at a staggering rate.”

“The IPO race for AI is more of a marathon than a sprint.”

“The acquisition of TBPN reveals exactly where media is headed.”

“From Iran's perspective, they feel emboldened... It discovered the Strait Of Hormuz and what havoc it can wreak, not only on The Gulf, but on the entire globe. Brent crude oil, the international standard, is above $96 a barrel in Asia ahead of talks in Pakistan Saturday on a potential permanent ceasefire.”

“Zeldin celebrated the EPA's decision to stop regulating carbon dioxide as a pollutant. He says that policy was government overreach and focused too much on the worst case scenarios. Zeldin spoke at a conference of the Heartland Institute, a free market group that denies that humans are contributing to climate change.”

“Maryland attorney general Anthony Brown says the states reached a settlement with Grace Ocean Private and Synergy Marine Group, the owner and manager of the Dali. The insurance company paid out $350,000,000 to the state of Maryland after the incident. There are still more than 50 parties, including the city of Baltimore, suing Grace Ocean and Synergy over the crash.”

“Riverside County sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, obtained them to investigate an alleged vote count discrepancy in a statewide election last year. Most disturbingly, there doesn't seem to be any indication of criminal wrongdoing. The California Supreme Court has halted Bianco's investigation while it reviews the case.”

“According to a study by the Associated Press, Major League Baseball's average salary has climbed 3.4% to a record of more than $5,300,000. The AP says the New York Mets topped spending at the season start for the fourth straight year with Mets' outfielder, Juan Soto, the highest paid player for the second consecutive season.”

“Integrity and her crew, four astronauts flew 700,237 miles. We hit our flight path angle target within point 4%. We flew an entry range of 1,957 miles, and we landed within less than a mile of our target. What a tremendous day.”

“It has, revealed this new source of leverage that, the rest of the world didn't realize. It's, essential, for the Trump administration to make sure that however this ends, it doesn't end with Iran, in control of of the strait.”

“It's a really, challenging period, but as as I'm talking of, I will say that now we are not paid, but these are our neighbors, the people we share, the churches. She says she's now counseling neighbors through unintended pregnancies.”

“The spike in gasoline prices following The US attack on Iran caused a major jump in inflation in March. Inflation had been undergoing a slow decline before the war began, but consumer prices were up 3.3% over March 2025. That's the biggest jump in almost two years.”

“As the sale of US made electric vehicles continue to slump, China EV sales are having a banner year. China's Association of Automobile Manufacturers says experts have plug in hybrids and EVs in March rose more than 140 over the same time last year.”

“Radioactive material from the damaged plant could leak into the Gulf, contaminating waters vital to states like Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.”

“companies are spending a lot of money on AI technology so they don't have money left to hire more employees or give pay raises.”

“Finance and economy ministers from Austria, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and Spain want the European Commission, the EU's executive body, to introduce what they call a solidarity levy on energy companies”

“It's actually a $25 billion round of cash is sort of up front... the rest is in kind. So it seems from looking at this... it's a bit like a procurement round.”

“The rest of the space is actually negative on using the product in terms of the unit economics. So the more you use the product, the more you lose the money.”

“The US plans include targeting all of Iran's civilian electric power generation plants, probably simultaneously. That's exactly the red line that Iran has previously said would cause it to retaliate by targeting desalination plants.”