The Energy Shock Is Here

Key Takeaways

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  The Strait of Hormuz closure blocks global oil supply

  “And while we can make up some of that gap, because countries and companies have stockpiles, we can sort of like massage it a little bit here and there for the moment. The longer this situation goes on, the longer the tankers can't make it out of the Strait of Hormuz, the longer that 10% will continue compounding. And the longer that the supply disruption will end up rippling through the global economy.”

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  Energy shocks are driving US inflation above targets

  “So year-over-year inflation through the CPI index, which is a broad measurement of inflation, is up 3.3% from a year ago. And the Federal Reserve uses 2% as a target for where it wants inflation to be. Even before the war with Iran started, inflation was above that target level. And what we have now is an energy shock that is sending gasoline and diesel prices on one of their steepest climbs in decades, if not ever.”

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  Global markets dictate domestic US gasoline prices

  “We are a net exporter of energy. We are the largest oil producer the world has ever seen. So why the heck am I paying higher gasoline prices when all of this is happening 7,000 miles away? The reason why is oil is the most global market. So we are a huge exporter of crude oil, of gasoline, of jet fuel, mainly from the US Gulf Coast. So that tethers us to the global market in a really big way.”

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  Consumer sentiment hit a record 74-year low

  “There was a survey from the University of Michigan. It was the lowest ever in 74 years of the survey taking place. And so some of that might be an overreaction in vibes because the economy was pretty strong coming into this. But the direction of travel, how fast that plummeted in just one month as people were seeing those price increases in the gas station, that just goes to show that people hate this.”

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  Natural gas shortages threaten critical global manufacturing

  “Natural gas, which is a huge part of what the Middle East exports in terms of energy, that is key for global power generation. It's key for air conditioning. It's also a key input for manufacturers around the world. If we're thinking about companies that build everything from chips to companies that create steel and need high heat, to companies that produce fertilizer for farming, all of that requires an immense amount of natural gas.”

Episode Description

Get your tickets to our L.A. live show here! The standoff in the Strait of Hormuz means millions of barrels of oil are still trapped in the Persian Gulf. As countries around the world begin to feel the impact of that energy shock, new inflation numbers are signalling that the U.S. economy is being impacted too. WSJ’s David Uberti explains how the stock market and consumers are processing what could be the worst oil crisis ever. Jessica Mendoza hosts. Further Listening: - The Strait of Hormuz Showdown - In Iran, an Uneasy Calm Amid a Cease-Fire - Will the U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Hold? Sign up for WSJ’s free What’s News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices