MONITOR PREDICTION MARKETS

“I feel like this particular cycle has been very different than in the past cycles of every time we have a world political situation or the economy situation moving in. We have seen crypto going down. But right now, we are in a sort of a cease file... the first impact is on crypto market as soon as the oil prices went down or expected to go down.”

“Eth, picking Eth actually has outperformed in last forty eight hours with around 6.7 to 7%, then Bitcoin jump, which is great because as you know, I won't call myself eat maxi, but I'm a big eat believer. Said that, I feel like this particular cycle has been very different than in the past cycles.”

“I am like, this is not the first time I feel like PolyMarkets has been PolyMarkets has been highlighting that there are multiple times when it comes to Trump administration, from his VP pick to then going into this genius act, to, like, multiple things, like, exactly before, doing the first missile into Iran, etcetera etcetera. We have been seeing this so called insider trading.”

“But I don't know how much of this is institutional waiting that they're putting money aside and let's bring in so much on ETF, which we saw, like, a huge amount of money coming into ETFs. I just really don't know how much was it wait and watch versus, oh, this is this is an asset we have to go in sort of a thing.”

“And if the Clarity Act passes without allowing yield-bearing stablecoins, has the banking lobby won? Kavita Gupta, founder and general partner at Delta Blockchain Fund, sits down with Steven Ehrlich to work through a week of whipsawing markets, fragile geopolitics, and structural shifts that could define where crypto goes from here.”

“Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he's authorized negotiations with Lebanon aimed at disarming Iranian backed Hezbollah militants and establishing relations between the countries. The nations have technically been at war since Israel was established in 1948. Meanwhile, president Trump posted on social media that Iran is doing a very poor job of allowing oil through the Strait Of Hormuz.”

“At issue is whether a crime was committed to justify a judge signing off on the warrants. Riverside County sheriff Chad Bianco, a Republican, obtained them to investigate an alleged vote count discrepancy in a statewide election last year. In that election, Californians voted to redraw the state's congressional map to favor Democrats.”

“Eligible men between the ages of 18 and 25 will automatically be registered into the US military draft pool starting in December. That's a change from the current requirement to self register. The military has not held a draft since 1973 during the Vietnam War.”

“The AP reported at least 50 new Polymarket accounts placed substantial bets on a US Iran ceasefire hours before president Trump made the announcement. It isn't the first time such well timed bets have occurred. Donald Trump junior has a sizable stake in Polymarket.”

“Formed in the later years of The USSR, Memorial has often been at odds with the Kremlin, not only documenting the darker chapters of the Soviet past, but also abuses in Vladimir Putin's Russia. For that work, Memorial was among human rights groups awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2023. Now Russia's highest court has effectively criminalized any and all of Memorial's activities.”

“Stylistically and from a tone perspective, there is an intentional transition from regulation by enforcement to regulation by regulation. And what I've seen that mean is they're putting out guidance, they're putting out proposed rules, they're putting out advanced notices of proposed rules, meaning they're giving a signal to the market that we might do a rulemaking on prediction limits, or prediction markets, for example.”

“The headline item is most major digital assets are now clearly in the commodity side of the regulatory categorization ledger, which is a level of certainty for market participants that lets you start to build new products, allocate capital with certainty in the United States. And you might say, well, that's been happening for years... But what we haven't seen in this space is a lot of the traditional financial services firms really dive in in a tangible way.”

“The agency always is a funding issue. It's funded by Congress. It's not funded by fees. And their staffing is limited by that budget. They can't spend more than their budget. So every year, there's this debate. CFTC have enough money. Should it have more? Should it switch to a fee model so that it can hire more staffers?”

“The CFTC announced an innovation task force on March 24th. And its stated purpose is to look at digital assets, AI, not surprising, and then prediction markets. It's going to be led by the Chairman's staffer, Michael Pasalacua, who joined Chairman Selig from private practice and has taken on a lot of the innovative agenda at the CFTC.”

“Some of the biggest pain points over the years are dual registered entities. So think of like a registered investment advisor that's also a commodity trading advisor. This is pretty much every hedge fund and asset manager. And they're regulated for the same thing, but it's not the same examination program, examination cycle, set of reports you're filing. So a lot of pain points to solve there.”

“Stylistically and from a tone perspective, there is an intentional transition from regulation by enforcement to regulation by regulation. And what I've seen that mean is they're putting out guidance, they're putting out proposed rules, they're putting out advanced notices of proposed rules, meaning they're giving a signal to the market that we might do a rulemaking on prediction limits, or prediction markets, for example.”

“The headline item is most major digital assets are now clearly in the commodity side of the regulatory categorization ledger, which is a level of certainty for market participants that lets you start to build new products, allocate capital with certainty in the United States. And you might say, well, that's been happening for years... But what we haven't seen in this space is a lot of the traditional financial services firms really dive in in a tangible way.”

“The agency always is a funding issue. It's funded by Congress. It's not funded by fees. And their staffing is limited by that budget. They can't spend more than their budget. So every year, there's this debate. CFTC have enough money. Should it have more? Should it switch to a fee model so that it can hire more staffers?”

“The CFTC announced an innovation task force on March 24th. And its stated purpose is to look at digital assets, AI, not surprising, and then prediction markets. It's going to be led by the Chairman's staffer, Michael Pasalacua, who joined Chairman Selig from private practice and has taken on a lot of the innovative agenda at the CFTC.”

“Some of the biggest pain points over the years are dual registered entities. So think of like a registered investment advisor that's also a commodity trading advisor. This is pretty much every hedge fund and asset manager. And they're regulated for the same thing, but it's not the same examination program, examination cycle, set of reports you're filing. So a lot of pain points to solve there.”