MONITOR MOVE

“The narrative that you've been getting, from the media is that bonds have been selling off. No one likes bonds. Safe assets are dead, etcetera. I think it's a lot more subtle than that. If you've got a more uncertain world where you've got tightening liquidity and increasing systemic risks beginning to build, then investors will go to the safety of government bonds. And what the bond market is telling us right now is there's an increasing demand for safety.”

“I'm not a super fan of doing everything based on heart rate because one, lots of people measure just on their wrist. Some people have an arm band, which is better. Some people have a truss strap, which are probably the best. But additionally, like, there is not a physiological difference. It's a feeling. I do like RPE just a little bit better for that reason. I'd rather you measure something than nothing. If heart rate is all you have, then let's go off of it.”

“I think HYROX presents a good framework for getting people from the low end of the spectrum to the higher end, right? And it also presents a measurement tool, observable, repeatable, measurable, for people from the unhealthy, the healthy or the fit to measure themselves against, to show improvement, to show, hey, I am increasing my fitness because I'm getting better and better and better at this test.”

“That zone, if you were to measure your lactate every single time during your runs, that zone is from 2.3 to about 3.1 millimoles. You're like, wait, Anthony, my LT2 is supposed to be at 4 millimoles and it's highly variable per person. Your LT1 might be low at 2 to 2.5 millimoles per person. But you need to run 2.3 to 3.1 is about the right golden zone. You can even make it tighter, 2.5 to 3.0.”

“If you go back and you like the history of financial markets, you know, I used to work at Salomon Brothers. Salomon Brothers and Phillips Brothers, the commodity firm, merged in the late nineteen seventies. And the reason for that was the commodity cycle, which was then furious running furiously, and the bond cycle were completely countercyclical. So in other words, what ends the liquidity cycle is rising commodity prices. Late in the cycle, what destroys liquidity is basically commodity markets going up.”

“I think HYROX Fitness to me is simply like the term sustained power output is the first thing that comes into my head. Sustained, because that word is the most important about it because it has to be sustained over a long period of time. We all know most people that do a HYROX, well, right now, it's between 50 odd minutes and sometimes even two hours. So your ability to sustain power over a long period of time is the definition of HYROX Fitness.”

“Kanye has been all over social media because at Paris Fashion Week, he wore a t-shirt that said White Lives Matter and brought Candace Owens out. She also wore it, and a lot of his models wore it with big bold lettering. Now he is doubling down on that, saying that the movement as a concept is essentially over.”

“He posted that everyone knows Black Lives Matter was a scam. There is some basis for this as some executives of the actual organization have been under investigation for misappropriation of funds, like people buying houses with money brought in from donations. But a lot of people are saying what he's doing by wearing this shirt is dangerous.”

“What the policy of the administration has been to do is to kinda reduce the Fed's footprint in markets. So they've been trying to shift from what I've called Fed QE in general terms to treasury QE, and the treasury QE is the black area. The black area is basically changes in the tenor of issuance in the markets. So in other words, rather than issuing long dated bonds, to institutions like pension funds, and insurance firms, what you're getting instead is the Fed is issuing bills.”

“The term comes from Mein Kampf, which was what Hitler wrote in prison during one of his imprisonments before he took power. The idea is this: a small lie is hard to pass by somebody, but a large lie, because it's so outlandish, people think someone wouldn't make that up. He must have a kernel of truth. And this is actually a strategy employed by Hitler during his rise to power.”

“The big problem with this from a legal perspective is these are mostly opinions about Donald Trump. What they would do is take videos of things he said about the election and say, well, this sure seems like the big lie. I also think it'll be dismissed well before that because these are opinions, and opinions are protected in terms of news coverage.”

“Two-thirds of the records set there are always when the temperatures are low and humidity is low. There are so many factors that affect this race that cold temperatures, which we all know it was cold temperatures there, is between 11 to 13 degrees Celsius between all these races. One thing that I saw, I said that for every one degree Celsius above 10 degrees Celsius, you start to get diminishing, like slower returns.”

“Markets are all about refinancing debt. We've got a huge amount of debt to refinance. And that's why markets are often laboring because they need liquidity to do that, that transformation. The products in the heart of the financial system is that debt needs liquidity to be in order for it to be rolled over because the fact is that if you issue a five year debt, bond, it's gotta be renewed five years hence.”

“In the modern world, what do interest rates really mean? Who is the big debtor now? It's the government sector. So if you raise interest rates, doesn't it mean that transfer payments from the government sector to the private sector increase, which is an income increase? And that is being more and more monetized by bill issuance. So this should be paradoxically, a stimulus to economies, not now, a contractory force.”

“The size of the federal debt, outstanding has grown by about five and a half times. So there's a big, big increase in federal debt, and these markets are huge now. And the capacity the dealer capacity in the market from the private sector, the dealer banks is probably down by about half. You've got a much, much bigger bond market, with, you know, a market capacity, which is arguably lower. So there's risks here for the bond market. And so you need the Federal Reserve to be there, I think, to supporting liquidity.”

“The liquidity cycle which dominates, market movements is basically inflecting lower. We think of four regimes or, if you like, four seasons. And we're in the season that we currently call speculation, which is a late one. Take that as the autumn, the autumnal season. And, it's, you know, it precedes what we call turbulence. And turbulence is, probably, as the name suggests, a very difficult time for risk assets.”

“What's happening in the US Treasury market with buybacks? The simple regression of that data, it shows you that each 10 increase in the move index basically leads to, subsequently, a 28,000,000,000 increase in treasury buybacks. So there's a direct correlation. It seems as if the treasury is directly targeting the move index. It wants bond volatility low.”

“You've got money which is moving in financial markets, and you've got money that's moving in the real economy. And what we say at the top of that is that all money that is anywhere must be somewhere. So we can't really be in two places at once. If it's in the financial sector, it's not in the real economy. And if there is a surplus of money in financial markets, it will spill over into the real economy and drive an economic boom.”

“A yellow card issued on the first length of a lunge or the first length of a burpee would end up slowing an athlete down by almost 15 seconds anyway. Because it'll slow them down anywhere from three to five seconds per remaining length of burpees or lunges they have left to do. On your second burpee, you get a yellow card. You don't want a red card. So now all of a sudden, instead of focusing on just getting to the end, you're focusing on how tight your movement is. To prevent yourself from getting a red card, you're essentially giving yourself a red card.”

“This chart I put up is one that we often show, which is looking at how liquidity drives crypto. Crypto is a great barometer of liquidity in the system. It's the most liquidity sensitive of all assets, understandably in many cases. I do exactly the same thing for a basket of crypto, which is Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. So it's 60% Bitcoin, 30% Ethereum, 10% Solana in that waiting.”

“One of the things that we've been pointing to, which was very much a contrarian view, back January 1, was that yield curves would basically begin to flatten by the middle of the year. And that was a very different view than the consensus, which was basically wedded to the idea that yield curves would steepen and probably steepen significantly because of inflation problems at the long end.”

“We've got four ducks here, economy, bond markets, equity market sectors, and liquidity, and they all seem to be saying the same thing. You're getting stronger economies. Commodity markets are moving. You're getting bear flattenings in yield curves, and you're getting things like cyclical value stocks, resources, energy outperforming, and liquidity kinda going down. And that's what it central banks not tightening yet. Just wait till they do. Then there's a problem.”

“18 degrees Celsius is 64.4 degrees Fahrenheit. Makes sense. What do we say? It was 11 to 13, so 12 degrees Celsius. Even on the low end, it was six degrees Celsius cooler, which is 53 degrees Fahrenheit. That's almost perfect running temperature. The 18 is where they're usually at, and now they're at 12. You're six degrees lower. You're looking at a three and a half percent improvement.”

“So Donald Trump, who is under assault from a lot of angles, has filed this lawsuit in district court and federal court in Fort Lauderdale, which he loves that forum. He is suing CNN where he is saying they've defamed him by focusing all of their news coverage on his efforts to push what has been called the big lie, challenging the results of the 2020 election.”