HOLD CASH

MAR 18, 2026Money Tree Investing Podcast

Private Credit Could Be The Next Black Swan

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Private credit poses a systemic black swan risk - The sector has largely replaced traditional bank lending with minimal transparency or regulation, making potential redemption freezes a major red flag for investors.
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Geopolitical uncertainty is driving extreme market divergence - Traditional correlations are breaking as the U.S. dollar strengthens and oil prices spike, forcing investors to navigate a 'fog of war' fueled by misinformation and AI content.
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Prioritize capital preservation over growth - Given the shift away from a low-rate regime and rising consumer credit stress, investors should consider moving to cash and avoiding crowded trades in energy or defense.

MAR 11, 2026Money Tree Investing Podcast

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De-leveraging over rotation Broad market declines currently signal a systemic unwinding of leveraged positions and a removal of liquidity rather than a simple shift between asset classes.
“Preserving capital during periods of uncertainty is often more important than trying to time short-term market moves.”
— Kirk Chisholm
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Defensive asset migration Capital is rotating into energy, commodities, gold, and defense stocks as traditional market frameworks break down under the pressure of stagflation risks and rising oil prices.
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Capital preservation priority The 'buy the dip' strategy is increasingly dangerous in the current environment, making cash a strategic position and downside protection more vital than timing short-term swings.
“Preserving capital during periods of uncertainty is often more important than trying to time short-term market moves.”
— Kirk Chisholm