Foreign aid lost discipline after winning the Cold War
βI think in some ways, we were slightly victims of our own success. You know, you go to this period of time after we win the Cold War, and everyone's into Fukuyama's end of history. And if you build it, it'll just people will automatically convert to our system. We let China into the WTO. We lost all discipline.β
Huawei is years ahead, not behind, fueled by US export bans
βSome of the things I heard, they could never build AI chips. That just sounded insane. Two, that China can't manufacture. China can't manufacture? If there's one thing they could do is manufacture. And three, they're years behind us. Is it two years, three years? Come on. They're nanoseconds behind us. Nanoseconds.β
DFC insures Strait of Hormuz shipping after private insurers fled
βWhat he intuitively recognized faster than almost anyone I spoke to was hey, if other insurers people talk about Lloyd's a lot, but, you know, other insurers are canceling war risk insurance because the straits closed, then implicitly that means everybody's insurance programs across the world on stuff like this rests on the back of The US Military. And what he says is, why are they getting paid for it and not us? Especially when it's our guys at risk and everything we're doing there.β
A free competitor chip still loses on tokens-per-watt economics
βEverybody's power limited. And let's say, you were able to secure two more gigawatts of power. Well, that two gigawatts of power, you would like to have translate to revenues. So your performance or tokens per watt was twice as high as somebody else's token per watt because you did deep and extreme co design. Blackwell's 30 times. So you've gotta give up 30 x revenues in that one gigawatt. It's too much to give up. So even if they gave it to you for free, you only have two gigawatts to work with.β
General-purpose computing is dead; accelerated computing replaces it
βThat general general purpose computing is over, and the future is accelerated computing and AI computing. And so the way to think about that is there's how much how many trillions of dollars of computing infrastructures in the world that has to be refreshed. And when it gets refreshed, it's going to be accelerated computing.β
βSo sulfuric acid exports have been banned, from China. That's 25% of the market. That starts May 1. Sulfuric acid is used often for the processing of rare earths. It's incredibly important for fertilizer and a whole host of agricultural products.β
Treat allies as partners, not paternalistic charity cases
βMy head of investments has gone overseas to places and has gotten thank yous for being treated like a partner, to have expectations set rather than an incredibly paternalistic view that frankly does not create partners but dependency. When people actually have skin in the game, are invested in and are working hard for something, and it's why we have them we have our partner countries co invest with us.β
Industrialization, not NGO grants, lifts people out of poverty
βDo you know the single factor that has brought the most people out of poverty throughout civilization? Actually industrialization. And so when you think about the projects you're going to do, you need the big ones that move the needle for people. I mean, it's the story of America in a lot of ways. Look at the railroads going west and everything, Towns develop alongside railroads.β
AI inference will scale a billion times due to reasoning
βI underestimated. Let me just go on record. I underestimated. We we now have three scaling laws. We have pretraining scaling law. We have post training scaling law. Post training is basically like, AI practicing. Practicing a skill until it gets it right. And then the third is inference. The old way of doing inference was one shot. But the new way of doing inference, which we appreciate, is thinking.β
Wall Street consensus dramatically underestimates NVIDIA's growth runway
βOf the 25 sell side analysts on Wall Street who cover your stock, if I look at the consensus estimate, it basically has your growth flatlining starting in 2027. 8% growth 2027 through 2030. That is the 25 people in their only job. They get paid to forecast the growth rate for NVIDIA.β
Marshall Plan was 70% spent on U.S. goods and services
βWhat people don't realize about the Marshall Plan, part of it is this myth has been taken on about pure altruism and it was incredibly altruistic, but 70% of the funds that The US sent over to Europe in the Marshall Plan were used to purchase US goods and services. It was a stimulus for us and it hardwired markets for US workers, businesses, and capital, and we had a first call on strategic and critical materials.β
Latin America is shifting decisively pro-American and pro-market
βI'd be remiss if I didn't start with the Western Hemisphere. What's going on in Latin America and across The Americas is certainly something that's never existed in our lifetimes, and I think you have to go back over a hundred years to see this type of opportunity there. You have a lot of pro American governments. You have elections moving in a direction of folks who are pro business, pro growth, anti crime, real allies to The United States.β
βIf you have a train that's about to get faster and faster and go exponential, the only thing that you really need to do is get on it. And once you get on it, you'll figure everything else out along the way. And so to predict where that train's gonna be and try to shoot a bullet at it or predict where that train's gonna be and it's going exponentially faster every second and go figure out what intersection to wait for it, that's impossible. Just get on it while it's going kinda slowly and go exponential along the way.β
Jensen washed dishes and cleaned toilets as the American Dream
βYou're talking to somebody who represents the American dream. My parents didn't have any money, sent us over here. We started from nothing. You guys know I, you know, bust tables, wash dishes, clean toilets, and here I am. This is the American dream. President Trump knows that. We want legal immigrants.β
Chinese student pipeline to US has collapsed from 90% to 15%
βI heard from a Chinese researcher leading one of our leading labs in The US that three years ago, 90% of the top AI researchers graduating from universities in China wanted to come to The United States and did come to The United States to work in our leading labs. And he guessed that today, that's closer to 10 or 15%. So seen a precipitous drop.β
China's Belt and Road builds roads but breeds resentment
βSo I went on part of my honeymoon with my wife to Rwanda and remember driving, when we did a gorilla trek and, you know, an amazing country, especially what they went through, with their genocide and civil war and how the country has been rebuilt. But you know, the driver on the way to the Guerrilla Tracts Plaza, guys are Americans, we love Americans. This road, everything here was built by the Chinese. We hate the Chinese. And I go, but they built you the road, why would they? And I go, yeah, they built our road. They won't pay and they won't use Rwandan workers. They don't eat at the same restaurants or anything like that.β
OpenAI is on track to be the next multitrillion-dollar hyperscaler
βI think that OpenAI is likely going to be the next multitrillion dollar hyperscale company. K. I think you and I... If that's the case, the opportunity to invest before they get there, this is some of the smartest investments we can possibly imagine, and you gotta invest in things you know.β
Annual release cadence is NVIDIA's weapon against ASIC competitors
βThe annual release cycle. The token generation rate is going up exponentially. And the customer use is going up exponentially. So the first thing is because the token generation rate is going up so incredibly, two exponentials on top of each other, we have to unless we increase the performance at incredible rates, the cost of token generation will keep growing because Moore's Law is dead.β
The $100K H-1B fee is a flawed but acceptable starting point
βSo I'm gonna start with it's a great start. And the reason for that is this. That implies I don't I hope it's not the end, but I think it's a great start. America has one a singular brand reputation that no country in the world has, and no country in the world is in the position or in the horizon to be able to say, come to America and realize the American dream. What country has the word dream behind it?β