AVOID BITCOIN

“Institutional demand has been picking up. You saw trading company numbers, right, MSCR numbers. You probably saw those ETF inflows. They picked up to the highest level since January 2024, and, like, the cumulative number year to date is at the highest level. Cumulative net inflows into all Bitcoin AGPs at the highest level. So that's picking up.”

“A lot of people are focusing on oil, but the components that are making up fertilizer, a lot of that comes from the Middle East and passes through the Strait of Hormuz. I have heard stories, been talking to people, farmers who are already worried about the cost of fertilizer. It's not just a cost thing. At a certain point, it becomes less about how much you have to pay and if you'll be able to pay at all.”

“We have the New York attorney general suing Gemini and Coinbase for prediction markets, but, seriously, not anyone else who's offering prediction markets in New York, just the two crypto companies because, of course. Then, of course, we have Kalshi and Polymarket launching perps. Not just crypto perps, but, apparently, you'll be able to trade on prediction markets with 10 x leverage.”

“It starts to feel like there's spot accumulation. It's tentative. This is not the frothy risk asset narrative that we're accustomed to seeing in Bitcoin, and it could have to do with the hedge against crazy from those that actually take time to understand Bitcoin. For those that do so tend to buy the hedge against crazy narrative, I count myself in that particular bucket, which is why it tends to outperform when things are crazy.”

“The Bitcoin dominance index is this morning reached its highest point since I think November of last year. So what we're seeing is in part new money coming into the market, and Bitcoin is the obvious on ramp, it's tentative still. But I think we're also seeing some rotation out of other crypto assets into the safety of Bitcoin.”

“Bitcoin presents an opportunity for the first time in human history for us to truly own, control and protect our wealth. And also for the first time in human history, we have access to truly neutral financial infrastructure. Hello, I'm Crypto Casey, and now is the perfect time for us to all get curious about Bitcoin, gain knowledge about Bitcoin and spread awareness about Bitcoin.”

“The game being played involves shifting liabilities to offshore entities, often in Bermuda or the Cayman Islands, where capital requirements are significantly lower and transparency is non-existent. They move the risk off the US books into these black boxes to free up capital to then turn around and invest in their own illiquid private credit funds, creating a circular loop of risk that the average policyholder never sees until it is too late.”

“I've looked at charts for 25 plus years now, and when it hits a certain level and then just sells off considerably, that is a sign of momentum ending or waning. In the last six months, I said, the bear market is likely to go until 2027. It will find likely a bottom in 2027. Where that is, I do not know. We shall see. Very well could go below 50,000 this year.”

“I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be.”

“The GDX hit the lowest level today since early January. So even with this large pullback, it's actually still up on the year. And it's approaching levels where you saw the peak back in October. Mid-80s is where you wanna pick up GDX or the subsequent miners within it, if you feel you need to up your position in precious metals.”

“Institutional demand has been picking up. You saw trading company numbers, right, MSCR numbers. You probably saw those ETF inflows. They picked up to the highest level since January 2024, and, like, the cumulative number year to date is at the highest level. Cumulative net inflows into all Bitcoin AGPs at the highest level. So that's picking up.”

“Since bankers, bureaucrats and big businesses receive new money that enters the economy first before everyone else, they have massive financial advantages over us, like arbitrage opportunities to buy assets before prices rise. So by the time the money trickles down to us, assets are more expensive. And this unequal distribution of money is a key driver of injustices in our modern society. This phenomenon is known as the Canton Effect.”

“We have the New York attorney general suing Gemini and Coinbase for prediction markets, but, seriously, not anyone else who's offering prediction markets in New York, just the two crypto companies because, of course. Then, of course, we have Kalshi and Polymarket launching perps. Not just crypto perps, but, apparently, you'll be able to trade on prediction markets with 10 x leverage.”

“As you know, the figure I show here is 50% of sulfuric acid exports are used for phosphate fertilizers. And it's important because the first market and the downstream kind of agricultural markets that globally that it depends on, that depend on it, are already very disrupted from everything that's gone on thus far out of the Gulf.”

“Regulators are completely asleep at the wheel, or worse, they've been captured by the very industry they are supposed to oversee. They allow these accounting gimmicks to persist because admitting the truth would mean acknowledging that the foundation of the retirement system is crumbling under the weight of private equity greed. The revolving door between regulators and major insurance firms ensures that the status quo remains unchallenged until the next systemic failure occurs.”

“The Bitcoin dominance index is this morning reached its highest point since I think November of last year. So what we're seeing is in part new money coming into the market, and Bitcoin is the obvious on ramp, it's tentative still. But I think we're also seeing some rotation out of other crypto assets into the safety of Bitcoin.”

“Instead of having fiat currency like US dollars that represent value and paying financial services like Vinmo and JP Morgan Chase to move it around and store it, Bitcoin is both value and a means to transfer, store and manage that value. This is because Bitcoin is both digital value and it's a network that can store and transfer the bits of digital value.”

“I'm a libertarian. I deeply believe that people should be able to use their money for whatever they want, but that doesn't mean it's a good thing that they'll be able to gamble with 10 x leverage on literally anything. And it is a 100% gambling. And every time you see gambling reach a fever pitch like this historically, it is the top when people are the most desperate and the most economically frustrated.”

“Generally the bond market has the reputation of being the intelligent market. And so it's where the macro traders tend to focus. And that has been signaling squeeze coming up. I mean, yields for the 10-year are up at 4.23%, 4.3%. That's high when you consider that the Fed actually started the cutting cycle quite a while ago now. And it's also high considering yesterday we had the hearings on Capitol Hill.”

“I think that it's going to like a farm system type thing. We were talking about that earlier, actually, about how smaller schools, you have to adjust and find a niche. It's like, hey, our role is going to be, we're going to take the backups from Penn State that didn't get any playing time. They're going to come here and have a great year, we're going to pay them 10 grand, and then they're going to make half a million bucks somewhere else.”

“Most preferreds are going to be rate sensitive. When interest rates rise, prices can fall pretty sharply, even if the issuer is financially healthy. There's also the call risk, reinvestment risk. Many issues are callable, meaning companies can redeem them if rates fall, forcing investors to reinvest at lower yields. They work best as more of a supplemental income tool, not really a core holding.”

“Coincidentally enough, the next day, the parade for the 2008 World Series is when Satoshi launched the white paper. So I was running around Broad Street as a 17-year-old, not knowing that Satoshi was going to change my life. Does that make it more or less likely that Satoshi was a Philadelphian?”

“Every prompt I put in mid-journey is an oil painting in the style of Norman Rockwell, so that is the basis for all of our thumbnails. But for the Bent, no, that is artisanal writing there from the hands. I respect that; that's amazing.”

“I think this is kind of problematic for Bitcoiners in particular because you want Bitcoin to be at least somewhat relatable to norm core and sports ball is a big part of that. But when you look into the way tax dollars are deployed to support college and new stadiums and the nonprofit status of the NFL, it's pretty antithetical to Bitcoiners' ethos to be into sports.”

“It starts to feel like there's spot accumulation. It's tentative. This is not the frothy risk asset narrative that we're accustomed to seeing in Bitcoin, and it could have to do with the hedge against crazy from those that actually take time to understand Bitcoin. For those that do so tend to buy the hedge against crazy narrative, I count myself in that particular bucket, which is why it tends to outperform when things are crazy.”

“I'm a libertarian. I deeply believe that people should be able to use their money for whatever they want, but that doesn't mean it's a good thing that they'll be able to gamble with 10 x leverage on literally anything. And it is a 100% gambling. And every time you see gambling reach a fever pitch like this historically, it is the top when people are the most desperate and the most economically frustrated.”

“When they go negative, which is rare and this negative, you generally see a short squeeze because somebody can literally go in and say, I'm going to just squeeze these shorts. I can see them right there. They're there for the taking. I think it's more that and not Iran headlines. These shorts are piling in, which means that this squeeze, at least to this price, was very obvious.”

“Bitcoin is back above $78,000, as investors go risk on across the board, leading many to wonder if this is yet another bull trap, or if we're actually going to see a major breakout and a move into the 80s. Bitcoin jumps over $78,000, hits 11-week high amid Trump's Seek Fire extension. I mean, I don't even know how to talk about the war anymore because I get accused of having TDS and I feel like I'm losing my mind.”

“The derivatives market for Bitcoin is weak. It is just sending a lot of really miserable signals. You've got bases down. I haven't seen lows like this in ages. You've got skews suggesting a very heavy weighting towards puts. You've got the funding rate was negative yesterday. Today, I think it's tempted to be positive. In other words, the derivatives markets are saying that, hey, we're not frothy.”

“The market decided last week with the ceasefire announcement that everything was, was Gucci and we were heading back to all time highs. But as we mentioned last week too, let's not get immersed and succumb to the 24-hour news cycle and the changing of headlines and the ping-ponging of ceasefire, no ceasefire, deal, no deal.”

“Fiat currency, like the US dollar, is a medium of exchange issued, backed and enforced by a government. No commodities like gold, natural resources or similar back fiat currencies. Rather, a government just decrees or declares that the currency is legal tender people have to use to transact in their country. And throughout history, all fiat currencies that have ever existed eventually went to zero and became worthless.”

“But alas, we're not a golf podcast for Bitcoin slash. I think we're macro podcast now. I think I've gotten some feedback. Some of the brightest minds in macroeconomics globally have been listening week in, week out just to come and get your thoughts, John, because they're good thoughts, as you alluded to. Things are chaotic.”

“The incentive structure is totally broken because these private equity firms aren't acting as stewards of capital; they are acting as fee-harvesting machines. They maximize their management fees by stuffing the insurance balance sheets with their own proprietary debt products, regardless of whether those investments are appropriate for a long-term life insurance obligation. It’s a conflict of interest that would have been illegal decades ago but is now the industry standard.”

“This is basically the 2008 subprime crisis but inside the insurance wrappers that people rely on for their retirements and death benefits. They are swapping high-quality liquid bonds for low-quality, illiquid private credit deals that they price themselves, creating a massive mark-to-model fantasy that can't withstand a real liquidity event. It is a house of cards built on the assumption that these private assets will never face a true market clearing price.”

“When you actually strip away the regulatory accounting treatment that's been afforded to these companies over the last decade, and you look at what their assets are actually worth versus their liabilities, 29 of the top 30 life insurance companies in the United States are technically insolvent today. This isn't a small problem; it's a structural collapse hidden by paperwork and the complicity of rating agencies that refuse to look under the hood of these private equity-backed behemoths.”

“When they go negative, which is rare and this negative, you generally see a short squeeze because somebody can literally go in and say, I'm going to just squeeze these shorts. I can see them right there. They're there for the taking. I think it's more that and not Iran headlines. These shorts are piling in, which means that this squeeze, at least to this price, was very obvious.”

“The headlines are because we have an indefinite ceasefire, in Iran, which blows my mind. But good, I guess. I don't want more war, obviously. I don't think that's the reason necessarily, but would love your guys' opinions. I think we had very clear evidence on chain that huge whale wallets were selling in massive clips all the way down from the all time high into the sixties, and then last week, there was a report that over the previous thirty days, we had the largest inflow to those wallets.”

“Bitcoin is back above $78,000, as investors go risk on across the board, leading many to wonder if this is yet another bull trap, or if we're actually going to see a major breakout and a move into the 80s. Bitcoin jumps over $78,000, hits 11-week high amid Trump's Seek Fire extension. I mean, I don't even know how to talk about the war anymore because I get accused of having TDS and I feel like I'm losing my mind.”

“What we're witnessing is the final looting of the American middle class's generational wealth. By taking over these legacy insurance companies, private equity firms are effectively stealing the collateral that backs millions of families' futures, replacing it with high-fee, high-risk assets that benefit only the fund managers. This heist is happening in broad daylight, yet it’s so complex that most people don’t realize their safety net has been hollowed out from the inside.”

“The headlines are because we have an indefinite ceasefire, in Iran, which blows my mind. But good, I guess. I don't want more war, obviously. I don't think that's the reason necessarily, but would love your guys' opinions. I think we had very clear evidence on chain that huge whale wallets were selling in massive clips all the way down from the all time high into the sixties, and then last week, there was a report that over the previous thirty days, we had the largest inflow to those wallets.”

“And so now we are definitively escalating and not only is the straight not going to be open, but we are going to make it even more closed than it was before. So an interesting, you know, reverse card being played here as always, you know, it's a bold strategy cotton. We'll see how it plays out, but yeah, big, big implications this week.”

“The better course of action for the vast majority of people is to roll that old 403B or 401K into a traditional IRA. No tax consequences, opens you up to as many investment options pretty much as you want, and then at a future date, then you could roll it over into a Roth IRA. Typically, that is the time between retiring and taking Social Security.”

“Generally the bond market has the reputation of being the intelligent market. And so it's where the macro traders tend to focus. And that has been signaling squeeze coming up. I mean, yields for the 10-year are up at 4.23%, 4.3%. That's high when you consider that the Fed actually started the cutting cycle quite a while ago now. And it's also high considering yesterday we had the hearings on Capitol Hill.”

“The derivatives market for Bitcoin is weak. It is just sending a lot of really miserable signals. You've got bases down. I haven't seen lows like this in ages. You've got skews suggesting a very heavy weighting towards puts. You've got the funding rate was negative yesterday. Today, I think it's tempted to be positive. In other words, the derivatives markets are saying that, hey, we're not frothy.”

“The entire traditional financial system is legalized theft that deliberately prevents most people like us from generating, accumulating and maintaining wealth. And it's all courtesy of the central banks, big corporations and governments. Bitcoin is a new revolutionary financial technology that is not controlled or owned by a person, entity or central authority.”

“There does appear to be a large redirection of VLCCs, which are very large crude carriers to the Gulf here in the U.S. and that's in response to one of the main oil arteries and LNG arteries in the world, as we've discussed for the last month, getting closed off. So yeah, I think it's an interesting kind of illustration of something that we've been talking about.”