AVOID LEVERAGE

“I'm a libertarian. I deeply believe that people should be able to use their money for whatever they want, but that doesn't mean it's a good thing that they'll be able to gamble with 10 x leverage on literally anything. And it is a 100% gambling. And every time you see gambling reach a fever pitch like this historically, it is the top when people are the most desperate and the most economically frustrated.”

“And so now we are definitively escalating and not only is the straight not going to be open, but we are going to make it even more closed than it was before. So an interesting, you know, reverse card being played here as always, you know, it's a bold strategy cotton. We'll see how it plays out, but yeah, big, big implications this week.”

“We have the New York attorney general suing Gemini and Coinbase for prediction markets, but, seriously, not anyone else who's offering prediction markets in New York, just the two crypto companies because, of course. Then, of course, we have Kalshi and Polymarket launching perps. Not just crypto perps, but, apparently, you'll be able to trade on prediction markets with 10 x leverage.”

“But alas, we're not a golf podcast for Bitcoin slash. I think we're macro podcast now. I think I've gotten some feedback. Some of the brightest minds in macroeconomics globally have been listening week in, week out just to come and get your thoughts, John, because they're good thoughts, as you alluded to. Things are chaotic.”

“The headlines are because we have an indefinite ceasefire, in Iran, which blows my mind. But good, I guess. I don't want more war, obviously. I don't think that's the reason necessarily, but would love your guys' opinions. I think we had very clear evidence on chain that huge whale wallets were selling in massive clips all the way down from the all time high into the sixties, and then last week, there was a report that over the previous thirty days, we had the largest inflow to those wallets.”

“When they go negative, which is rare and this negative, you generally see a short squeeze because somebody can literally go in and say, I'm going to just squeeze these shorts. I can see them right there. They're there for the taking. I think it's more that and not Iran headlines. These shorts are piling in, which means that this squeeze, at least to this price, was very obvious.”

“There does appear to be a large redirection of VLCCs, which are very large crude carriers to the Gulf here in the U.S. and that's in response to one of the main oil arteries and LNG arteries in the world, as we've discussed for the last month, getting closed off. So yeah, I think it's an interesting kind of illustration of something that we've been talking about.”

“When they go negative, which is rare and this negative, you generally see a short squeeze because somebody can literally go in and say, I'm going to just squeeze these shorts. I can see them right there. They're there for the taking. I think it's more that and not Iran headlines. These shorts are piling in, which means that this squeeze, at least to this price, was very obvious.”

“Institutional demand has been picking up. You saw trading company numbers, right, MSCR numbers. You probably saw those ETF inflows. They picked up to the highest level since January 2024, and, like, the cumulative number year to date is at the highest level. Cumulative net inflows into all Bitcoin AGPs at the highest level. So that's picking up.”

“We have the New York attorney general suing Gemini and Coinbase for prediction markets, but, seriously, not anyone else who's offering prediction markets in New York, just the two crypto companies because, of course. Then, of course, we have Kalshi and Polymarket launching perps. Not just crypto perps, but, apparently, you'll be able to trade on prediction markets with 10 x leverage.”

“The market decided last week with the ceasefire announcement that everything was, was Gucci and we were heading back to all time highs. But as we mentioned last week too, let's not get immersed and succumb to the 24-hour news cycle and the changing of headlines and the ping-ponging of ceasefire, no ceasefire, deal, no deal.”

“The headlines are because we have an indefinite ceasefire, in Iran, which blows my mind. But good, I guess. I don't want more war, obviously. I don't think that's the reason necessarily, but would love your guys' opinions. I think we had very clear evidence on chain that huge whale wallets were selling in massive clips all the way down from the all time high into the sixties, and then last week, there was a report that over the previous thirty days, we had the largest inflow to those wallets.”

“Institutional demand has been picking up. You saw trading company numbers, right, MSCR numbers. You probably saw those ETF inflows. They picked up to the highest level since January 2024, and, like, the cumulative number year to date is at the highest level. Cumulative net inflows into all Bitcoin AGPs at the highest level. So that's picking up.”

“I'm a libertarian. I deeply believe that people should be able to use their money for whatever they want, but that doesn't mean it's a good thing that they'll be able to gamble with 10 x leverage on literally anything. And it is a 100% gambling. And every time you see gambling reach a fever pitch like this historically, it is the top when people are the most desperate and the most economically frustrated.”

“As you know, the figure I show here is 50% of sulfuric acid exports are used for phosphate fertilizers. And it's important because the first market and the downstream kind of agricultural markets that globally that it depends on, that depend on it, are already very disrupted from everything that's gone on thus far out of the Gulf.”