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“The Fed communicates way too much. Every couple days there's some Fed governor talking; the forward guidance and these dot plots lock them in. We saw this in 2021 where, because they had given forward guidance on QE continuing, it took another six months before we even got to the announcement of ending it. We were at almost double-digit inflation and the Fed was still doing billions a month of QE because of this constraint they put themselves in.”

“Tesla expects their capex to be over 25 billion this year. Everyone is basically forced into this because before the competition was about raising debt to buy back stock and shrink equity. Now, we have this frontier that we're pursuing and if you don't raise a lot of debt and pursue it, you're going to be so left behind because this is a divergent technology. It is a 21st-century industrial revolution and you can't just sit there while others build the rails.”

“Austin's really interesting because we actually expanded the housing supply here massively. So my home value has gone down quite a bit in Austin since the peak, which is actually really good for the labor pool and job market. So it keeps the homeostasis of the ecosystem working. But in in San Francisco, you you know, my buddy's like, I don't understand how this housing market does not crack. It's like regulatory crap shit piled on top of each other. No supplies getting built.”

“You you know what happened to me was I started in the business in 2007, and, you know, they always say, like, that's your first impression of of things. And I was working with these guys that were caking it. And then they had no idea the market was built off of house of cards, and then 2008 came. So I was bearish from that point on for, like, ten years, and it's taken me to unwind, like, okay. Like, if you actually let a free market happen, like, a lot of this leverage would go. But now it I had to learn the hard way that, like, they're gonna back this thing up no matter what.”

“OnlyFans' interest has been going down, and interest in church has been surging. And then I've been seeing these I don't know if you've seen them, but these videos of, every Sunday in West Village in New York, all Yes. Everybody's there's a huge the the hottest place to go right now in West Village in New York is going to Catholic church.”

“US dollar usage is surging, which sounds very counter-narrative to a lot of what you see these days about de-dollarization and the basement of the currency. You would think it would be going the opposite direction right now based on everything we talked about regarding questioning US hegemony and reserve status, but it's clear it's actually the opposite.”

“What can they do? Let it breach. And if that happens, the dollar strengthens and yields globally rise because if 160 goes, Japan yields rise, US yields rise. Okay. What happens if they defend it at 160? They weaken the yen and weaken the dollar. Nasdaq sell off. But weaker dollar is inflationary in The US in a time where we're already reaccelerating on Main Street and yields rise.”

“We're seeing this recalibration of the composition of the economy happening. It's interesting to compare data center versus general office spending; the economy is fundamentally changing. This isn't just a sectoral thing to view anymore. We're spending more and more time talking about this because it is literally the marginal driver of growth in the US right now.”

“I think the yen is the clue to watch what happens because if the yen really breaks $1.60, the dollar wrecking ball kind of if it breaks with volume and power, I think the dollar wrecking ball merges and causes credit credit problems. Look back at every time the yen crashed down from 106 or, you know, or the dollar, weakened from 160 USD JPY, and the Nasdaq usually peaks right there or around it.”

“There's an interview with the CEO of NVIDIA, and he said the biggest bottleneck we have right now with AI data center build outs is we can't find enough plumbers for the data centers. Like, that's the the bottleneck is in the semis. It's it's literally just the plumbers to be in there setting up the plumbing at the data centers.”

“There was an interview with the CEO of Nvidia where he said the biggest bottleneck we have right now with AI data center buildouts is we can't find enough plumbers for the data centers. The bottleneck isn't the semis; it's literally just the plumbers needed to be in there setting up the plumbing. There is this whole cascade of second, third, and fourth derivative impacts that is really fascinating and probably not talked about enough.”

“So there's really no path to the Fed cutting in '26 without a crisis. You know, or according to when they make the date revamp the data to make it more accurate to to paint the picture they want. But I think that's the my biggest takeaway is just, you know, the the treasury has control monetary and fiscal policy.”

“Dude, when I walk to work, there's just empty office space everywhere. And it I'm like, there there's this, like, below our work, there's a a jewelry store on South Congress, which is like it doesn't even have jewelry in it. It's just sitting there. Some guy probably bought it in, like, 1960. And, like, it says Cougar Jewelers, and it just, like, there's no there's no jewelry anymore. It just sits there, and it acts like a jewelry. It's it's all like a front. We're living in, like, a dystopian.”

“Are we in a late cycle boom where you see oil taking off like this? It's generally a sign that this is the end of the cycle, and oil and the rate of inflation change really breaks the back of everything. When I see this spread of Europe versus The US, I think to my brain, nineteen ninety eight Asian financial crisis where you left all the Asian economies, and you put your money right back into The US.”

“I think the yen is the clue to watch. If the yen really breaks 160 with volume and power, the dollar wrecking ball emerges and causes credit problems. You could have a blow-off top in the AI data center infrastructure boom at the same time, but you could also be starting a whole new credit cycle if the Fed is going to lower rates. The yen is the key to watching that liquidity.”

“Tesla expects their capex to be over 25 billion this year. Everyone is basically forced into this because before the competition was about raising debt to buy back stock and shrink equity. Now, we have this frontier that we're pursuing and if you don't raise a lot of debt and pursue it, you're going to be so left behind because this is a divergent technology. It is a 21st-century industrial revolution and you can't just sit there while others build the rails.”

“You need to own them. You have to own the hard assets because at some point, the pain's gonna be enough where they're gonna step in, and that's when your golds and commodities of the world just take their next leg higher.”

“There was an interview with the CEO of Nvidia where he said the biggest bottleneck we have right now with AI data center buildouts is we can't find enough plumbers for the data centers. The bottleneck isn't the semis; it's literally just the plumbers needed to be in there setting up the plumbing. There is this whole cascade of second, third, and fourth derivative impacts that is really fascinating and probably not talked about enough.”

“You know what's interesting is ESG died right when inflation returned at the top of 2022. The extrapolation is that ESG was just a zero-rate phenomenon, and as soon as real life costed something and we hit an affordability crisis, it went away. Now you see it with the energy crisis; you have people talking about energy security, which is a complete 180 from the dialogue of the last decade.”

“You know what's interesting is ESG died right when inflation returned at the top of 2022. The extrapolation is that ESG was just a zero-rate phenomenon, and as soon as real life costed something and we hit an affordability crisis, it went away. Now you see it with the energy crisis; you have people talking about energy security, which is a complete 180 from the dialogue of the last decade.”

“You guys know the dollar smile, which is basically the dollar strengthens in a really good time of The US economy and then a really bad time where it's a haven demand. What I actually think in a fiscal dominant world is more relevant today is the yield smile where if you look at the last few years, they're just managing to this low volatility, passive grind up of flows supporting the equity market, 10% a year. But if you go too hot, you get persistent inflation, persistent growth, and higher yields.”

“Bessent played a key role in breaking the pound. In 1992, Black Wednesday, he assisted George Soros in betting against the pound. They built a 10 billion dollar position against the pound. And now he's sitting in the exact opposite seat. Do you think about the irony of that where he's trying to control everything? He was 29 years old. He ran the London office. It identified the housing market economy were too weak to support high interest rates. And now he's sitting here in this exact same seat.”

“It's a giant CapEx boom in in in and I think check this out. This is slide 47. This is Tesla, expects their CapEx. So that's everyone's basically forced because before the competition was, I wanna raise debt and buy back my stock and shrink the equity. Now it's like, hey. We have this frontier that we're pursuing. And if I don't raise a lot of debt and pursue it, I'm gonna be so left behind because this is like a divergent technology.”

“I think, not the buried not the bury the lead here, but the biggest thing is that he said he hated Ford guidance. He wants to get rid of Ford guidance. I was like, dude, it's just a podcast, man. Why are you so upset about it?”

“This was the first Fed meeting since 1992 with this many dissents. There was eight in support of no change and then four dissenting. And then even to complicate the matter further, three of them were dissents in terms of wanting to it was actually technically speaking, they said, this who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate, but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.”

“I am basically in the camp that a nineteen seventies second inflation wave is effectively baked in the cake. Like, that's pretty how far I am in that direction. And the OBB, the tax incentives, the reheating the economy, run it hot is absolutely here, and I just think it's not gonna be the run it hot everyone wants for the Nasdaq and other risk asset prices.”

“I think the next risk here is an export restriction control or ban of some sort. This is gasoline prices. They're up massively, over up over 33% to start the year, in The US here, and they're still rising. And this is, let gasoline prices go to the moon as textbook for how to lose an election. What could he do? He could put a export restriction. That would send Brent rocketing.”

“I think the yen is the clue to watch. If the yen really breaks 160 with volume and power, the dollar wrecking ball emerges and causes credit problems. You could have a blow-off top in the AI data center infrastructure boom at the same time, but you could also be starting a whole new credit cycle if the Fed is going to lower rates. The yen is the key to watching that liquidity.”

“US dollar usage is surging, which sounds very counter-narrative to a lot of what you see these days about de-dollarization and the basement of the currency. You would think it would be going the opposite direction right now based on everything we talked about regarding questioning US hegemony and reserve status, but it's clear it's actually the opposite.”

“Powell's really throughout his whole tenure, he's been pretty steady. And I think this is a testament to how the Fed messaging and forward guidance, it's like software they figured out where they can kinda just tweak everything and the market prices it in. And then once the Fed meeting actually happens, it's not there's it's, like, inconsequential. It's a it's like sell the news every single time now.”

“This is the ESG population. I I was dying when I saw this just because when we saw all these, you know, giant BlackRock cares about, you know, oh, the environment and social good. And they they convinced all the pension funds. You know what's interesting is it died right when inflation returned at the top of 2022. So so so the extrapolation is ESG was just a zero rate phenomenon. And as as soon as real life costed something, it went away.”

“We're seeing this recalibration of the composition of the economy happening. It's interesting to compare data center versus general office spending; the economy is fundamentally changing. This isn't just a sectoral thing to view anymore. We're spending more and more time talking about this because it is literally the marginal driver of growth in the US right now.”

“The Fed communicates way too much. Every couple days there's some Fed governor talking; the forward guidance and these dot plots lock them in. We saw this in 2021 where, because they had given forward guidance on QE continuing, it took another six months before we even got to the announcement of ending it. We were at almost double-digit inflation and the Fed was still doing billions a month of QE because of this constraint they put themselves in.”