WATCH JAPAN

“Because Japan hit the, like, silver tsunami a little earlier, they have this interesting thing where they're giving away free houses or super cheap houses, sometimes free. They're called Akiya's... there's over 8,000,000 IKEAs that are being given away by the government, or, again, sometimes for very cheap.”

“What about the billions of people around the globe that are, you know, 65 plus that are just gonna need physical human support? So nursing's one area. Also, the the rest of that stat talks about in Japan, the number of nursing homes has risen nearly 50% over the last decade.”

“You need to own them. You have to own the hard assets because at some point, the pain's gonna be enough where they're gonna step in, and that's when your golds and commodities of the world just take their next leg higher.”

“I really think that if somebody created some kind of, thing for, you know, out of shape, middle aged guys to do. They'll do it. And I think if you make it if you brand it almost like as the, the non fit person triathlon, and it's gotta have, like, some version of eating and drinking being one of the legs, dude, that's the next tough mudder.”

“He stands on a bridge in Kyoto, the story goes, and every samurai he tries to cross it, Benkei fights him. And he is so invincible that he ends up with 999 swords. So he's got one sword to go to make the thousand. And his opponent is a very slight, elegant youth, wearing a woman's cloak, who'd been playing the flute as he approached the bridge. Well, maybe, because he turns out to be so formidable an opponent that Benkei ends up defeated.”

“The thing about the samurai, and this is what makes them different, say, from other very mythologized classes of warrior, like Vikings, say, or the Knights of Medieval Christendom. These are medieval warriors who actually outlast the Middle Ages. And I think that this is why in the West, as well as I would guess in Japan, they're aesthetic, the sense of them as having kind of moral codes, their vibe, can actually seem much more attuned to contemporary culture.”

“I am basically in the camp that a nineteen seventies second inflation wave is effectively baked in the cake. Like, that's pretty how far I am in that direction. And the OBB, the tax incentives, the reheating the economy, run it hot is absolutely here, and I just think it's not gonna be the run it hot everyone wants for the Nasdaq and other risk asset prices.”

“The regime that Tokugawa establishes, and which is run by his descendants, endures for two and a half centuries. So right the way up until the middle of the 19th century. And throughout that entire period, Japan remains at peace. So you've had 200 years of kind of savage war, warlords tearing chunks out of each other, and then you have two and a half centuries of stability and order.”

“Throughout this period of peace, the samurai are effectively functioning as bureaucrats, as civilians, but they never give up their military status. The shogunate is always casting itself as a military regime. And the grander you are as a samurai, the better your birth, the more you are expected to kind of cosplay as a lord from the era of the warring states.”

“I think the next risk here is an export restriction control or ban of some sort. This is gasoline prices. They're up massively, over up over 33% to start the year, in The US here, and they're still rising. And this is, let gasoline prices go to the moon as textbook for how to lose an election. What could he do? He could put a export restriction. That would send Brent rocketing.”

“It tells how he's this young boy in his monastery, and then a servant who is loyal to his father's memory reveals to him his true identity. And Yoshitsune then goes up onto the side of the mountain of Mount Kurama, and he meets the great Tengu, who is the spirit lord of the mountain. And very fortunately for Yoshitsune, the greatest teacher of martial arts anywhere in the cosmos, and the great Tengu instructs Yoshitsune in swordsmanship. So, in a sense, he is Yoda to Yoshitsune's Luke.”

“What can they do? Let it breach. And if that happens, the dollar strengthens and yields globally rise because if 160 goes, Japan yields rise, US yields rise. Okay. What happens if they defend it at 160? They weaken the yen and weaken the dollar. Nasdaq sell off. But weaker dollar is inflationary in The US in a time where we're already reaccelerating on Main Street and yields rise.”

“I want you guys to guess what the fastest growing sports are... number two, I would have never guessed. Alpine touring. I don't even know what that really is. I think it's just, like, off off country skiing. And then I have never heard of what is winter fat biking?”

“Are we in a late cycle boom where you see oil taking off like this? It's generally a sign that this is the end of the cycle, and oil and the rate of inflation change really breaks the back of everything. When I see this spread of Europe versus The US, I think to my brain, nineteen ninety eight Asian financial crisis where you left all the Asian economies, and you put your money right back into The US.”

“You guys know the dollar smile, which is basically the dollar strengthens in a really good time of The US economy and then a really bad time where it's a haven demand. What I actually think in a fiscal dominant world is more relevant today is the yield smile where if you look at the last few years, they're just managing to this low volatility, passive grind up of flows supporting the equity market, 10% a year. But if you go too hot, you get persistent inflation, persistent growth, and higher yields.”

“It's only when Yoshitsune is 20, so this is in the year 1180, that at last we get real historical certainty. Because this is the year when he emerges from this kind of obscurity that he's been veiled throughout his youth, to join his half-brother, Yoritomo, who is now the head of the Minamoto clan. And this is a very dramatic moment because the two half-brothers have never met before. And it happens in the most iconic place, possibly in the whole of Japan in the shadow of Mount Fuji.”

“This was the first Fed meeting since 1992 with this many dissents. There was eight in support of no change and then four dissenting. And then even to complicate the matter further, three of them were dissents in terms of wanting to it was actually technically speaking, they said, this who supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate, but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time.”

“Bessent played a key role in breaking the pound. In 1992, Black Wednesday, he assisted George Soros in betting against the pound. They built a 10 billion dollar position against the pound. And now he's sitting in the exact opposite seat. Do you think about the irony of that where he's trying to control everything? He was 29 years old. He ran the London office. It identified the housing market economy were too weak to support high interest rates. And now he's sitting here in this exact same seat.”

“Powell's really throughout his whole tenure, he's been pretty steady. And I think this is a testament to how the Fed messaging and forward guidance, it's like software they figured out where they can kinda just tweak everything and the market prices it in. And then once the Fed meeting actually happens, it's not there's it's, like, inconsequential. It's a it's like sell the news every single time now.”

“Yoshitsune had been brought up in complete ignorance of his father's identity. He did not know that he was the son of this great Minamoto lord. And then at the age of six, he gets packed off by Kiyomori to a monastery north of Kyoto on the slopes of Mount Karama. Kiyomori's plan is that Yoshitsune will grow up in harmless and ignorant seclusion as a monk. He doesn't know who his father is, doesn't know that he's a Minamoto, and he's a monk, so therefore, hopefully he's not going to grow up to become a samurai.”

“And the title Shogun. So Shogun is an ancient title, isn't it? Or at least in its full version, it's an ancient title. And it's basically a great general or warlord who subdues barbarians, isn't that right?”

“So there's really no path to the Fed cutting in '26 without a crisis. You know, or according to when they make the date revamp the data to make it more accurate to to paint the picture they want. But I think that's the my biggest takeaway is just, you know, the the treasury has control monetary and fiscal policy.”

“Four out of every five are run as for profits, and half of all the operators in the industry are clearing annual returns of 20% or more than it costs to operate. With 850,000 older Americans living within assisted living, the rents are getting jacked up.”

“The Tyra have control over Kyoto, the great imperial capital. They have the imperial family under their thumb, and they had expelled the Minamoto pretty much from the kind of civilised centre of Japan. And they have all been disbursed to the barbarous northeastern stretches of Japan. They also control the inland sea, which kind of lies between western Honshu and the two islands south of it. So the the Taira basically rule the waves, right?”

“And I think that this in turn underlies a further paradox about the standing of the Samurai in the imagination, which is that on the one hand, they are indelibly Japanese. They are up there with geisha and with tea ceremonies and sumo and all that kind of thing as absolutely kind of A-list markers of Japanese culture. A samurai is Japan.”