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“It's a one thirty thirty strategy, essentially, where you go one thirty long, 30% short. So the short positions effectively generate losses that can offset gains from selling your concentrated stock position. They tend to be pretty high fee, though, because they're high input. You could be paying, I don't know, one and a half percent on top of whatever your advisory fee is just to kind of manage that. You're also not really eliminating your taxes. You're just deferring them. Eventually, the tax man always gets paid.”

“Go back to the history of Micron's earnings. I will read them from 2020 to 2027. $5.14, $7.74, negative $5.34, 70¢, $7.59. So I think the question is not are earnings real today, but are they sustainably real moving forward, or are we just at a point in time where things are at the right position cyclically? The last peak in earnings for Micron was $8.35 in 2022. So analysis to earn over 10 times that next year. It's just not likely to be durable.”

“The White House said that President Trump's assets are in a trust managed by his children and that World Liberty is run by the Trump and Witkoff sons, independently of their fathers. The White House also said that there are no conflicts of interest, and that President Trump, quote, only acts in the best interest of the American public.”

“Middle East has obviously expanded its production base. Why just sell oil out of the ground and send it on the ship when you can actually make some money on the process of refining these into other areas. That's why we suddenly left with a market where besides gas, we have all the associated productions of commodities... the energy intensive commodities, that's anything from aluminium to especially fertilize which requires a lot of gas with the main feed stock.”

“The White House said that President Trump's assets are in a trust managed by his children and that World Liberty is run by the Trump and Witkoff sons, independently of their fathers. The White House also said that there are no conflicts of interest, and that President Trump, quote, only acts in the best interest of the American public.”

“Wilson is drinking a lot. Bernard Donoghue's diaries from 1975 often describe him drinking four or five glasses of brandy or whisky at lunch, especially when he's got to go to the Commons and argue with Margaret Thatcher. In November 1975, Donoghue recalls that Wilson went to a diplomatic lunch, and then at this lunch, Joe Haynes said he was all over the place and drank too much. He then went to the Commons and gave an absolutely shambolic performance.”

“Bert Bell adopts this as his mantra that literally I mean, they made a movie with this title. On any given Sunday, any team in the league should be able to beat any other team. And he pushes this through with the owners and gets them all to agree to this of, like, hey. The only way we're gonna survive and prosper is if we agree that none of our teams can get so dominant that we end up with a Cleveland Browns situation. Bert and the NFL do two things. First, he completely overhauls the way the schedule works. He realizes that the schedule is actually an incredibly important strategic lever, and he looks at the results from last year's season and arranges the schedule such that the weaker teams from last year play the other weaker teams for the first half of the season.”

“Tocnune did at one point meet with Biden, but he didn't get this kind of splashy White House dinner with the president and a half dozen cabinet members. And so people who kind of know how these things usually worked found that pretty remarkable.”

“Reason we just come to know as well that, miners in South America then need sulfuric acids in order to break down the copper from the from their mines. And that basically means with 50% of that coming out of The Middle East, then we also suddenly face a potential shortage in in that area. We talked about we we helium has been mentioned prior to the chips industry.”

“Every leader in the region is operating on a four-year clock. They know that while there is high value in being close to Trump right now, that relationship has an expiration date, and they are trying to squeeze as much investment and trade benefit as possible before the wind shifts again. They are focused on short-term wins because the long-term political landscape in the U.S. is so volatile.”

“It's the art of war. The generals tend to fight the last war. And while there's COVID and we did see a little inflation as of the last few years, really, the major crisis of most people's recent memory is o eight, is the financial crisis. And that was a big deflationary impulse. But the previous crisis is usually not the next crisis. The next crisis is usually something very, very different. And in this instance, it really is inflation, that the risk for most people's portfolios is that inflation continues to eat away purchasing power.”

“So World Liberty has doled out at least $1.2 billion to the Trump family, and just to put it in perspective with Trump's real estate empire, it took eight years for Trump's real estate, golf, and brand empire to make that amount of money between 2010 and 2017. So it's safe to say that Trump is seeing an influx of wealth unlike what he's ever seen before.”

“So World Liberty has doled out at least $1.2 billion to the Trump family, and just to put it in perspective with Trump's real estate empire, it took eight years for Trump's real estate, golf, and brand empire to make that amount of money between 2010 and 2017. So it's safe to say that Trump is seeing an influx of wealth unlike what he's ever seen before.”

“Marcia is Wilson's political secretary and she has this extraordinary and inexplicable hold over him. So every now and again, she would lift up her handbag, point to her handbag and say to his other aides, whom she hated, 'one call to the Daily Mail and he will be finished. I will destroy him.' She supposedly said to Wilson's wife, Mary, 'I have only one thing to say to you. I went to bed with your husband six times in 1956 and it was not satisfactory.'”

“And and and, this is getting a little bit long, Harry. But I think also interesting to note that in the last six weeks, how much has The US crude oil production risen by zero barrels? How many additional rigs has been employed in in The US shale area? Zero rigs. Basically, where are The US producers? Why why are we not seeing any response? And I think part of that is is clearly the fact that the curve is very backwardated.”

“In less than two years, World Liberty Financial has earned the Trump family at least $1.2 billion in cash, and a lot of that has come through foreign owned businesses. One of the companies they worked with was the cryptocurrency exchange Binance. The other involves the United Arab Emirates.”

“Tocnune did at one point meet with Biden, but he didn't get this kind of splashy White House dinner with the president and a half dozen cabinet members. And so people who kind of know how these things usually worked found that pretty remarkable.”

“The deal is signed January 16th, 2025, four days before the inauguration. It's signed by Eric Trump. Signing on the UAE side were two executives working for Taknun. Half of the purchase price was paid upfront, immediately steering $187 million to Trump family entities.”

“I think there's no doubt that even though the the market is behaving relatively benignly, especially if you're just watching front bonds, the futures price in the crude oil market, you were kind of just saying, what's the whole fuss about? But this disruption we're seeing right now is just so profound because it's not only the energy space that we are seeing being impact. And one thing is crude oil, but another thing is the old refined products where we're really seeing the the tightness right now, diesel, jet fuel, petrochemicals, and so on.”

“The most, striking one reason has been cocoa prices, which went from 2 and a half thousand to 12,000 only took utterly collapse back to where we came from simply because there was a response both from the demand side, which slowed, and the supply side, which increased. Chocolate manufacturers, they start to look at reducing the number of cocoa content. That makes, obviously, the chocolate bar a bit cheaper to produce. In some places, we also have shrinkflation, so the bar is suddenly not the size that you were used to. So the combination of these things basically had a major impact on demand in Europe.”

“What we're seeing is a pivot across the region. Leaders from both the left and the right have realized that the most effective way to deal with the current US administration is through direct, transactional dealmaking rather than ideological posturing. This 'orange shift' is less about shared values and more about understanding how to navigate the specific style of the Trump White House to secure national interests.”

“Nayib Bukele has rewritten the playbook for political popularity in Latin America by focusing almost exclusively on security and a high-gloss social media presence. Even with concerns over civil liberties, his approval ratings remain the envy of every other leader in the hemisphere because people feel safer than they have in decades. He’s created a brand that other leaders are desperately trying to replicate.”

“We know through our reporting that Binance deploys engineers to build the blockchain technology that underpins the USD1 stable coin, which would become World Liberty's first product. In March of 2025, World Liberty launched that new USD1 stable coin. They now had an actual cryptocurrency product they could sell to customers.”

“The White House said that President Trump's assets are in a trust managed by his children and that World Liberty is run by the Trump and Witkoff sons, independently of their fathers. The White House also said that there are no conflicts of interest, and that President Trump, quote, only acts in the best interest of the American public.”

“We've gone from a bit of a liquidity and inflation shock, perhaps now more towards a growth shock, where the implications of this crisis will start to play out in the coming months in terms of soft economic growth. And with that also, the central bank struggle business between focusing on inflation on one hand, and perhaps focusing on economic stimulus on the other side. And I think that that will eventually send the gold prices higher again.”

“On his second day as Prime Minister, another Labour MP, a disgraced Labour MP, this is very hard to explain in one sentence, but basically a disgraced Labour MP called John Stonehouse, who had faked his own death on a beach in Miami and then turned up in Melbourne and was arrested as a fraudster. He returned to British politics, he quits the party and he says there should be an immediate general election. So now Callaghan has no majority at all after just a couple of days. He's got 314 seats.”

“Upon any eventual sale or monetization of the ownership stake that private equity would have in an NFL franchise, a portion of the returns on that investment get skimmed off the top and go back to the NFL and then get distributed equally among all 32 NFL team ownership groups. This is wild. That's why there's an anointed set of four. It's not just there's only four PE firms we trust. It's there's four PE firms that we went and we did a deal with where if they buy into our league, we effectively get carry on their investment when they sell.”

“Joe Namath. He was the first modern cultural celebrity athlete. He's also a heartthrob. There's, like, millions of teenage women in America, like, throwing themselves. He was the first professional athlete that appealed equally to men, women, and children. He comes and he's playing in New York, right, in the biggest market, the brightest lights right there with the TV industry, right there with the advertising industry. He knew exactly how to play it. He wore white cleats. Everybody else wore black high tops. Famously, he wore a mink coat on the sidelines.”

“And Bernard Donoghue followed him out and found him in the toilet with kind of with his head in his hands, absolutely crushed. And Wilson just said very weakly, I'm so exhausted. I'm so tired. And he just he basically allowed himself to be insulted in this way by his own Chancellor in front of everybody. He did nothing at all about it. And he is, as Donoghue writes a month later, privately, we know he's blown. He's no more interest, no more ideas, no appetite for power.”

“There is this view abroad that Trump is a transactional president and that, you know, I think some of these countries even appreciate that stance because they feel like they know how to play that game. But the feeling is very much that if you want something from the Trump Administration, you have to be prepared to give something in return.”

“Looking at Air Systems, AEHR. Small cap name, $2,600,000,000 market cap. It has boomed, Luke. It was trading just last April, one year ago. Down around $7 per share. Today, even after dropping 7% today, it's at $82 per share. It's moved, like, 800% in the past fifty two weeks. What about just a month? And then last month, it was trading at 30, and now it's at 82 in a in a month. I'll give you another number. Let's see if you can guess what number it is. 18.7%. Short interest. There you go. So this move is just probably a short squeeze.”

“Go back to the history of Micron's earnings. I will read them from 2020 to $2,027.37, $5.14, $7.74, negative $5.34, 70¢, $7.59. So I think the question is not are earnings real today, but are they sustainably real moving forward, or are we just at a point in time where things are at the right position cyclically? The last peak in earnings for Micron was $8.35 in 2022. So analysis to earn over 10 times that next year. It's just not likely to be durable.”

“Reason we just come to know as well that miners in South America then need sulfuric acids in order to break down the copper from their mines and that basically means with 50 percent of that coming out of the Middle East, then we also suddenly face a potential shortage in that area. We talked about helium has been mentioned prior to the chips industry. So it's just the whole, how the breadth of this crisis and how it impacts not only energy, but anything through to metals.”

“Through our reporting, we discovered that the connections between not only Binance and World Liberty, but also World Liberty and MGX and the Emiratis ran much deeper than we knew previously. A foreign government official taking a stake in the president's company right before he becomes president is a first and is not something we've seen in modern American politics.”

“One year before he'd been in this jail cell, he was persona non grata in the industry. And to have completed this incredible about turn within the first year of Trump's presidency, to get a pardon so swiftly, was surprising. World Liberty said it played no role in CZ's pardon and that its business interactions with Binance have been routine.”

“So I think the story in the US in 2025, to some extent, was tariffs pushing up the price of goods. And that was offset by a decline in services inflation. And then, of course, in 2026, we have a sharp increase in global energy, oil and natural gas prices due to the hostilities in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”

“Because Healy is actually a very clever man and he's intellectually self-confident, he's self-confident enough to listen to them and to say, OK, fair enough, I will change. And it's very rare that Chancellor does that, actually. It's one of the signal examples in modern British history of a Chancellor starting off as one thing and then turning into something else. So he then reinvents himself as something of a monetarist, as somebody who is basically going to use monetary targets to bring inflation down.”

“And then, of course, in 2026, we have a sharp increase in global energy, oil and natural gas prices due to the hostilities in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. And so certainly that is a non-monetary policy shock this year.”

“Wilson once was such a pivotal figure in British politics. Kind of forgotten today, but he won four elections out of five in the 1960s and 1970s, a record that seems very unlikely to be equaled anytime soon. As a politician, he's resilient, he's pragmatic, he's very cunning, his wiliness is legendary. He has moved over the course of his career, starting out on the left and moving steadily more and more towards the centre.”

“Through our reporting, we discovered that the connections between not only Binance and World Liberty, but also World Liberty and MGX and the Emiratis ran much deeper than we knew previously. A foreign government official taking a stake in the president's company right before he becomes president is a first and is not something we've seen in modern American politics.”

“Well, there's somewhat of a ceasefire and a blockade in the Straits Of Hormuz, And about 13% of the global oil supplies have been basically closed off to the rest of the world. And gulf producers shut in about 9,000,000 barrels per day of output, which, as you would imagine, is a bit of a problem for especially countries that are dependent on energy. Goldman Sachs has estimated the Persian Gulf crude output is down 14,500,000 barrels per day. That's 57% lower than prewar levels. And total US oil exports earlier this month hit an all time high of 12,900,000 barrels per day.”

“CTE is very real and caused by playing football and causes shorter lifespans and immense physical harm to players. The NFL settled a billion dollar lawsuit to pay out victims and families of CTE. The NFL started doing research into long term effects of concussions and other head trauma from playing football in the nineties, and then they sat on the data for a long time. And then when they did release it, they claimed that there was absolutely no provable link, no evidence at all that head injuries from playing football led to long term damage.”

“Looking at Franco Nevada. This is the name that we've actually owned for clients for an extended period of time. This is a streamer. What they basically do is they partner with the mining companies and they help finance the mines. So they basically own a piece of on a stream of the revenue coming out of the from the mines. We have zero debt. We have absolutely zero debt. So it is the purest, cleanest gold price proxy amongst these gold exposed names.”

“The primary driver of political survival in Latin America right now isn't necessarily about who is in the White House, but who can keep prices stable. Inflation was the killer for the previous generation of leaders, and the current crop is obsessed with not letting it spiral out of control. If you lose control of the currency or the price of bread, no amount of geopolitical dealmaking can save your administration.”

“In the first year of the relationship, September '23 to September '24, the NFL added 4,000,000 female fans. The Chiefs were 3,400,000 of those. The biggest demographic or sub demographic of those 4,000,000 is women 35, which is a traditionally very weak demographic for the NFL. Clark Hunt, the owner of the Kansas City Chiefs, went on the Pat McAfee Show, and he said that before Taylor, the Chiefs' fan base was about fifty fifty, male, female. But post Taylor, the fan base at the Chiefs is 57% women, 43% men.”

“Well, I think one thing that you can't get away from is this the fact that despite oil being sustainably above $90 a barrel, US producers are not rushing to drill. The Dallas Fed did a survey which showed rig counts actually declined. Even after a month of 90 plus dollar oil, oil executives are saying that the price swings are a bit too wild, and they can't really stomach it moving based on tweets and paper market manipulation. It effectively makes it impossible to plan capital budgets.”

“It really only takes one bad season for that whole equation to change around. And that's really the worry in the coming months, that if we see some troubled weather potential as well... we will see downgrades to crop production targets for this year. And that will start to eat into an overhanger supply because we are coming into this, just like the oil market, we're coming into this fertilizer crisis with ample supplies of some of the key crops.”

“One year before he'd been in this jail cell, he was persona non grata in the industry. And to have completed this incredible about turn within the first year of Trump's presidency, to get a pardon so swiftly, was surprising. World Liberty said it played no role in CZ's pardon and that its business interactions with Binance have been routine.”

“We know through our reporting that Binance deploys engineers to build the blockchain technology that underpins the USD1 stable coin, which would become World Liberty's first product. In March of 2025, World Liberty launched that new USD1 stable coin. They now had an actual cryptocurrency product they could sell to customers.”

“I think there's an argument that once the dust settles and we're on the other side of this, we should expect prices to settle in at least $10 higher level, maybe even $15 higher. The floor has moved higher for this. That basically means if you're looking at Brent Crude for December at $80, that's potentially where the new floor should be. So I'm struggling to see any forward prices really reflect what potential will unfold in the coming months because it will take time.”

“I think there's an argument that once the dust settles and we're on the other side of this, we should expect prices to settle in at least $10 higher level, maybe even $15 higher. The floor has moved higher for this. That basically means if you're looking at Brent Crude for December at $80, that's potentially where the new floor should be. So I'm struggling to see any forward prices really reflect what potential will unfold in the coming months because it will take time.”

“World Liberty presented this MGX investment using USD1 as an enormous vote of confidence in World Liberty and in its stablecoin. At the time that he knew that both MGX and World Liberty were, you know, partly owned by the same person, was just pretty shocking to me.”

“Pretty immediately, the courts strike down this deal. And there's about, I think, a one to two month period where it's all in limbo. And this is where the Kennedy relationships come in clutch for Roselle and the NFL. So both the president and Bobby Kennedy in congress and whip up enough support to pass through new congressional legislation to allow for national sports contracts on a league wide basis. The day after the bill is passed and signed by John f Kennedy, he literally hosts a party at the White House for the NFL, which is, like this tells you everything you need to know right there.”

“Davis gets the news that the gentleman's agreement has been broken, and the kicker has been signed. The kicker signing heard around the world while he happens to be literally in the middle of meeting with the bill's owner. Supposedly, Davis, he just sits there in his chair and he leans back and he smiles and he says, well, we just got our merger. And the Bills owner is like, what are you talking about? And Davis says, because now we're gonna go out and sign all of their players, and we will destroy them, and they will come begging to the table.”

“We know from our reporting that Binance, they set up an internal task force which consisted of a number of high level executives. And this task force, its aim was to look for ways to fix Binance's legal issues in the US. Binance was exploring ways they could work with World Liberty that they could then leverage into a pardon for CZ.”

“You're absolutely correct that the fiscal deficits seem to be stuck at between 5 and 6 percent of GDP. You and I early in our career spent time at Treasury, and in our day, that would have been a real eye-popping number in an economic expansion. Basically, anything over two or three is something you would get focused on.”

“Despite oil being sustainably above $90 a barrel, US producers are not rushing to drill. Right? The Dallas Fed did a survey which showed rig counts actually declined. Even after, you know, a month of 90 plus dollar oil, oil executives are saying that the price swings are a bit too wild, and they can't really stomach it moving based on tweets and paper market manipulation. It effectively makes it impossible to plan capital budgets.”

“So suddenly it went from this minnow which nobody was really paying attention to, to one of the largest stable coins by market cap on the market. Before the transaction, World Liberty's stable coin was valued at $127 million. After, that market value jumped to 2.1 billion, which was something that World Liberty then started trumpeting, saying that we are one of the fastest growing stable coin issuers on the planet.”

“He says that the two countries have agreed to a very big contract for the UAE to buy around 500,000 of the US's most advanced AI chips per year. I mean, obviously, this is what Tuck Noon has been lobbying for, so this is a huge deal.”

“In less than two years, World Liberty Financial has earned the Trump family at least $1.2 billion in cash, and a lot of that has come through foreign owned businesses. One of the companies they worked with was the cryptocurrency exchange Binance. The other involves the United Arab Emirates.”

“We've gone from a bit of a liquidity and inflation shock, perhaps now more towards a growth shock, where the implications of this crisis will start to play out in the coming months in terms of soft economic growth. And with that also, the central bank struggle business between focusing on inflation on one hand, and perhaps focusing on economic stimulus on the other side. And I think that that will eventually send the gold prices higher again.”

“We know through our reporting that Binance deploys engineers to build the blockchain technology that underpins the USD1 stable coin, which would become World Liberty's first product. In March of 2025, World Liberty launched that new USD1 stable coin. They now had an actual cryptocurrency product they could sell to customers.”

“They suddenly had a product which was going to be generating about $80 million in income each year. About a month after that huge USD1 transaction took place, Binance formally applied for a pardon for CZ. And by the time that CZ got his pardon, in October of 2025, World Liberty was thriving.”

“So, four days before Trump's inauguration, Taknun and some co-investors bought half of World Liberty, purchasing 49 percent of the Trump's company for half a billion dollars. Until we revealed it in January of this year, it had never been disclosed publicly.”

“To remind people, a very demoralised and sort of hangdog Britain is reeling after the 1973 oil shock. The Tory Prime Minister Ted Heath has tried to impose his wage controls. The coal miners rebelled. They blew his economic policy apart. He called an election in February 74. The result was stalemate. Back came Harold Wilson, the leader of the Labour Party as Prime Minister for the second time.”

“Reason we just come to know as well that miners in South America then need sulfuric acids in order to break down the copper from their mines and that basically means with 50 percent of that coming out of the Middle East, then we also suddenly face a potential shortage in that area. We talked about helium has been mentioned prior to the chips industry. So it's just the whole, how the breadth of this crisis and how it impacts not only energy, but anything through to metals.”

“He says that the two countries have agreed to a very big contract for the UAE to buy around 500,000 of the US's most advanced AI chips per year. I mean, obviously, this is what Tuck Noon has been lobbying for, so this is a huge deal.”

“In April 1976, he was telling a press conference that Britain could benefit from a fascist leader. Then in May 1976, so the following month, came the most notorious incident of all, when he turned up at Victoria Station in I think an open top Mercedes and greeted fans with what was alleged at the time to be a Nazi salute and which Bowie, Elon Musk style subsequently said had just been a wave. Then a few weeks later, he gives the interview that I've just cited.”

“Americans in general are feeling a little bit less confident in their ability to retire. 61% of workers are very or somewhat confident in having enough money for retirement. That's down from 67% last year and a recent high of 72% in 2021. That's the lowest level in nearly a decade. And most people are focused on inflation. Among retirees, 41% said that retirement spending had been higher than they expected when they first retired.”

“We started we traded the year in the 60 to $75 range looking at Brent. And I think there there is an argument that once the dust settles and we're on the other side of this, we should expect prices to settle in at least $10 higher level, maybe even to $15 higher. So the floor has moved higher for for this. And that basically means if you're looking at Brent crude for December at $80, that's potentially where the the new floor should be.”

“The old world is striking back against the new world because the new world wants to accelerate at 100 miles an hour towards progress, but the old world is bumping along at a much lower speed because they can't keep up with the demand that is coming from all the different, all the new technologies and all the direction that we want to go. I think that basically leaves us in a situation where the old saying that the best cure for high price is a high price because it incentivizes supply.”

“I attribute most of that to higher-term premium that bond markets require to hold sovereign bonds. During my time at the Treasury, even before the pandemic, when the Pal FED was hiking rates, I think 10-year Treasury yields peaked at around 3 percent, and they're now running, of course, in the mid-4s, and indeed, they've been averaging, I think, four and a quarter for the last several years.”

“So suddenly it went from this minnow which nobody was really paying attention to, to one of the largest stable coins by market cap on the market. Before the transaction, World Liberty's stable coin was valued at $127 million. After, that market value jumped to 2.1 billion, which was something that World Liberty then started trumpeting, saying that we are one of the fastest growing stable coin issuers on the planet.”

“Goldman Sachs has estimated the Persian Gulf crude output is down 14,500,000 barrels per day. That's 57% lower than prewar levels. And you even started to see Saudi Arabia, you know, OPEC's defect de facto leader, try and maximize outs output through its alternative Red Sea pipeline, but it doesn't really handle the full volume there. And so in a situation where the way to move oil to market is shut down for OPEC, of course, The United States then becomes a even more important producer of oil in the global economy. And total US oil exports earlier this month hit an all time high of 12,900,000 barrels per day.”

“World Liberty presented this MGX investment using USD1 as an enormous vote of confidence in World Liberty and in its stablecoin. At the time that he knew that both MGX and World Liberty were, you know, partly owned by the same person, was just pretty shocking to me.”

“I've had this conversation with countless people. They feel as though they are earning something when they get a dividend. This is passive income by getting a dividend, and that's just not the case. Settlers paribus, all things being equal, if a company pays out a cash dividend, its price should drop. Its market cap should drop by roughly the amount of the cash that leaves the portfolio. And so you are trading optionality for an income stream. If you want an income stream, invest in bonds.”

“The old world is striking back against the new world because the new world wants to accelerate at 100 miles an hour towards progress, but the old world is bumping along at a much lower speed because they can't keep up with the demand that is coming from all the different, all the new technologies and all the direction that we want to go. I think that basically leaves us in a situation where the old saying that the best cure for high price is a high price because it incentivizes supply.”

“This is the story of today's episode. It's about the first Brexit referendum in June 1975 when Britain took the fateful decision not to leave what became the EU. And it's about how Harold Wilson struggled to stop Britain plunging into hyperinflation and complete economic meltdown in the course of 1975. A very demoralised and sort of hangdog Britain was reeling after the 1973 oil shock.”

“We know from our reporting that Binance, they set up an internal task force which consisted of a number of high level executives. And this task force, its aim was to look for ways to fix Binance's legal issues in the US. Binance was exploring ways they could work with World Liberty that they could then leverage into a pardon for CZ.”

“The president is exempt from conflict of interest rules in a way that other members of his administration are not. There has always been an assumption that a president would be governed by the norms of this role and the desire to not have there be bad optics and that sort of thing.”

“In the last six weeks, how much has the US crude oil production risen by zero barrels? How many additional rigs has been employed in the US shale area? Zero rigs. Basically, where are the US producers? Why are we not seeing any response? And I think part of that is clearly the fact that the curve is very backwardated. So if you as an oil producer needs to hedge your production three to six months out, the prices are still not that great.”

“There is this view abroad that Trump is a transactional president and that, you know, I think some of these countries even appreciate that stance because they feel like they know how to play that game. But the feeling is very much that if you want something from the Trump Administration, you have to be prepared to give something in return.”

“If you have a market which is backwardation, i.e. it's a signal of a relatively tight supply, and you're holding a futures position to hedge your exposure... every time you roll that position, if we are in backwardation, you'll be selling an expiring contract at a higher price where you buy the next. That is giving you a positive roll yield over time. And obviously, the opposite occurs if you have a period with ample supply.”

“The deal is signed January 16th, 2025, four days before the inauguration. It's signed by Eric Trump. Signing on the UAE side were two executives working for Taknun. Half of the purchase price was paid upfront, immediately steering $187 million to Trump family entities.”

“They suddenly had a product which was going to be generating about $80 million in income each year. About a month after that huge USD1 transaction took place, Binance formally applied for a pardon for CZ. And by the time that CZ got his pardon, in October of 2025, World Liberty was thriving.”

“By his last act of patronage, Harold Wilson has succeeded in reducing himself and not only himself, he has demeaned the office of Prime Minister. And actually, Labour MPs were appalled by this. That he should pick inadequate, buccaneering, sharp seisters for his honours was disgusting. It was unsavoury, disreputable and it just told the whole Wilson story in a single episode. And Haynes and Donahue go around everywhere and they say to everybody, this is Marcia's list, she wrote it on a lavender note paper.”

“So suddenly it went from this minnow which nobody was really paying attention to, to one of the largest stable coins by market cap on the market. Before the transaction, World Liberty's stable coin was valued at $127 million. After, that market value jumped to 2.1 billion, which was something that World Liberty then started trumpeting, saying that we are one of the fastest growing stable coin issuers on the planet.”

“You should not build a portfolio based on dividends. Dividends can be a piece of the puzzle because it alludes to something. The ability of a company to pay a consistent dividend is a good sign because of what it says about the company. But I've had this conversation with countless people. They feel as though they are earning something when they get a dividend. This is passive income by getting a dividend, and that's just not the case. If a company pays out a cash dividend, its price should drop. So you are trading optionality for an income stream. If you want an income stream, invest in bonds.”

“The market panicked. And, when the market panics, it's a question of just getting out of positions or getting reduced, getting your exposure down to levels that you find that's manageable. And, so gold to a certain extent, some of the other metals will suffer from the success they've had in the previous months. So they've become a very widely held investment, meaning that they were also exposed when that situation unfolded.”

“Claudia Sheinbaum has managed to maintain the high approval ratings of her predecessor by focusing on continuity and robust social spending. She is navigating a very complex relationship with Washington while ensuring that her domestic base remains satisfied with the direct transfers and economic stability. Her challenge is balancing that populism with the very real requirements of the US-Mexico trade relationship.”

“It's the art of war. The generals tend to fight the last war. And while there's COVID and we did see a little inflation as of the last few years, really, the major crisis of most people's recent memory is o eight, is the financial crisis. And that was a big deflationary impulse. But the previous crisis is usually not the next crisis. The next crisis is usually something very, very different. And in this instance, it really is inflation, that the risk for most people's portfolios is that inflation continues to eat away purchasing power.”

“The president is exempt from conflict of interest rules in a way that other members of his administration are not. There has always been an assumption that a president would be governed by the norms of this role and the desire to not have there be bad optics and that sort of thing.”

“Middle East has obviously expanded its production base. Why just sell oil out of the ground and send it on the ship when you can actually make some money on the process of refining these into other areas. That's why we suddenly left with a market where besides gas, we have all the associated productions of commodities... the energy intensive commodities, that's anything from aluminium to especially fertilize which requires a lot of gas with the main feed stock.”

“Everything I'm reading says that American farmers, and I'm sure it's probably the same in Europe, the farmers can't afford or can't get their hands on enough fertilizer to fertilize the crops as much as they normally would want to. So they're planting under fertilized crops, seems to me like that can only mean undersized yields that presumably results in higher prices. Am I right about that?”

“Finally, nineteen o five, there are nineteen fatalities in intercollegiate football in The US, and a serious injury at Harvard to one Theodore Roosevelt junior, son of sitting president Theodore Roosevelt. So this is a major event. After that happens, Teddy Roosevelt calls the summit of all the major colleges and universities in New York City and says he's gonna outlaw the game in The US unless they adopt major changes to make the game safer. This summit that Teddy Roosevelt calls, and then he basically tells all the presidents of the universities, like, hey. You guys gotta figure this out, or I'm gonna outlaw this. In response, they create the NCAA.”

“Through our reporting, we discovered that the connections between not only Binance and World Liberty, but also World Liberty and MGX and the Emiratis ran much deeper than we knew previously. A foreign government official taking a stake in the president's company right before he becomes president is a first and is not something we've seen in modern American politics.”

“One of the big issues really is that this is it's a furniture store. They own Pottery Barn, West Elm, obviously Williams Sonoma. And that is, it's typically a good business, but usually the spark to buy new furniture is buying a home. And home transactions remain near multi year lows. So until we get a catalyst that can improve the amount of home transactions that are being made, it's going to be difficult for them to manufacture a lot of real revenue growth here.”

“Lula has surprised many people who expected a much more radical left-wing economic agenda. Instead, he’s been relatively pragmatic on the fiscal side, working within the constraints of the Brazilian system to keep the markets calm while still delivering on his social promises. The economic performance under his watch has been better than many analysts predicted when he first took office.”

“We have to remember hedge funds, if there's one thing they're not, they're never ever married to their positions. If something goes wrong, if there's a technical change or fundamental change, they'll seek a divorce as soon as possible, whereas the rest of us potentially can sometimes get bumped into a position where we we think we're right and the market is is wrong.”

“He said the British security services were out to get me for years. They spread rumours that I was running a communist cell in Downing Street. And these BBC blokes can't believe this. I mean, this guy was prime minister just a few weeks ago. And then he's very calm, he's still puffing on his cigar. He says, they were saying that I was tied up with the communists. The link was Marcia. She was supposed to be a dedicated communist. And he goes on to say, he says, Norman Scott, this stable bloke, is a South African agent.”

“Overall, it was a down day driven by news around Open AI. The CFO, Sarah Friar, said the company may not be able to pay for competing contracts if their revenue growth does not accelerate from where they're at. They miss their own targets of new users, revenue, and raise concerns that they'll be able to continue to spend as much as they are on their data centers, which kinda hit the tech industry as a whole, and that's why you saw the Nasdaq down. About 1% on the day, S and P down about half a percent.”

“Forbes now estimates the Cowboys are worth $13,000,000,000. The Cowboys are the high watermark because the Cowboys have an exceptional amount of local revenue that they produce. The estimated twenty twenty four revenue of the cowboys was $1,200,000,000 while posting an operating income of 630,000,000. Sure, the Cowboys can spit off 630,000,000 in profit. The average team spits off a 127,000,000 in profit, and the least profitable team only generates 21,000,000 in profit. This league first mentality is gonna be really tested in the coming years with these enormously profitable teams at the top and these teams at the bottom.”

“If you have a market which is backwardation, i.e. it's a signal of a relatively tight supply, and you're holding a futures position to hedge your exposure... every time you roll that position, if we are in backwardation, you'll be selling an expiring contract at a higher price where you buy the next. That is giving you a positive roll yield over time. And obviously, the opposite occurs if you have a period with ample supply.”

“In the last six weeks, how much has the US crude oil production risen by zero barrels? How many additional rigs has been employed in the US shale area? Zero rigs. Basically, where are the US producers? Why are we not seeing any response? And I think part of that is clearly the fact that the curve is very backwardated. So if you as an oil producer needs to hedge your production three to six months out, the prices are still not that great.”

“I'm looking at Air Systems, AEHR, Air Test Systems. AEHR is the symbol. Small cap name, $2,600,000,000 market cap. It has boomed, Luke. It was trading just last April, one year ago. Down around $7 per share. Today, even after dropping 7% today, it's at $82 per share. It's moved, like, 800% in the past fifty two weeks. What about just a month? And then last month, it was trading at 30, and now it's at 82 in a in a month. I'll give you another number. 18.7%. What number do you think that is? Short interest. There you go. So this move is just probably a short squeeze.”

“On the 5th of March, that's a week before Wilson is planning to make his announcement, the Bank of England decides to cut interest rates to try and give the economy a little bit of a boost. And the markets don't like this at all. And people start rushing to sell sterling. And quite soon the rush turns into a stampede. So by the evening of the following day, the 6th, the pound has now fallen to $1.98. Remember it was $2.23 a few minutes ago. It's now $1.98, the lowest level in its history.”

“It really only takes one bad season for that whole equation to change around. And that's really the worry in the coming months, that if we see some troubled weather potential as well... we will see downgrades to crop production targets for this year. And that will start to eat into an overhanger supply because we are coming into this, just like the oil market, we're coming into this fertilizer crisis with ample supplies of some of the key crops.”

“Simply because if you are a passive long investor, Eric, almost no matter how you invest into a commodity space, whether it's through an ETF or through a swap, whoever provides you the ETF for the swap will always go back to the clean market, and the clean market in this this case is the futures market. And if you have a market where which is backwardation, I. E. It's a signal of a relatively tight supply, and you're holding a futures position to, as a to hedge your exposure to the ETFs and the swaps that you have issued, Every time you roll that position, if we are in backwardation, you'll be selling an expiring contract at a higher price than where you buy the next. That is giving you a positive roll yield over time.”

“Historically, in order to reduce core inflation by multiple percentage points, you need a deep recession. I believe there are some very prominent economists who said to get inflation down to the 2s, you’re going to need 6% unemployment. And of course, through the end of 2024, that had not happened. Inflation had fallen, I think it bottomed at 2.4%.”

“Monday Night Football invented that was not a part of your typical football NFL broadcast before Monday night football, and it is astonishing. The overriding idea that we are going to cover a football game like show business. This is not a sport we're broadcasting. This is showbiz. We're gonna put cameras at field level. We're gonna put cameras on people's shoulder. We're gonna put cameras on the 20 yard lines. Instead of two commentators, we're gonna have a three man booth, and there's gonna be real action oriented commentary there. They went from the four cameras that typically would cover a Sunday broadcast to nine cameras and then eventually up to 17 cameras.”

“One year before he'd been in this jail cell, he was persona non grata in the industry. And to have completed this incredible about turn within the first year of Trump's presidency, to get a pardon so swiftly, was surprising. World Liberty said it played no role in CZ's pardon and that its business interactions with Binance have been routine.”

“They suddenly had a product which was going to be generating about $80 million in income each year. About a month after that huge USD1 transaction took place, Binance formally applied for a pardon for CZ. And by the time that CZ got his pardon, in October of 2025, World Liberty was thriving.”

“JPMorgan says that Iran can only withstand about two more weeks of having its crude oil exports blockaded by The United States. If that US blockade continues to be successful for more than about two more weeks, Iran will be forced to begin shutting in its oil production. And after about one more month, Iran would be forced to substantially shut in most, if not all, of its oil production because of a lack of any place to store the oil. Once shut in, those wells take a long time and cost a lot of money in order to bring back online.”

“So World Liberty has doled out at least $1.2 billion to the Trump family, and just to put it in perspective with Trump's real estate empire, it took eight years for Trump's real estate, golf, and brand empire to make that amount of money between 2010 and 2017. So it's safe to say that Trump is seeing an influx of wealth unlike what he's ever seen before.”

“So, four days before Trump's inauguration, Taknun and some co-investors bought half of World Liberty, purchasing 49 percent of the Trump's company for half a billion dollars. Until we revealed it in January of this year, it had never been disclosed publicly.”

“We know from our reporting that Binance, they set up an internal task force which consisted of a number of high level executives. And this task force, its aim was to look for ways to fix Binance's legal issues in the US. Binance was exploring ways they could work with World Liberty that they could then leverage into a pardon for CZ.”