James Bosworth on the "Orange Wave" Happening Across Latin America

“What we're seeing is a pivot across the region. Leaders from both the left and the right have realized that the most effective way to deal with the current US administration is through direct, transactional dealmaking rather than ideological posturing. This 'orange shift' is less about shared values and more about understanding how to navigate the specific style of the Trump White House to secure national interests.”

“Nayib Bukele has rewritten the playbook for political popularity in Latin America by focusing almost exclusively on security and a high-gloss social media presence. Even with concerns over civil liberties, his approval ratings remain the envy of every other leader in the hemisphere because people feel safer than they have in decades. He’s created a brand that other leaders are desperately trying to replicate.”

“Claudia Sheinbaum has managed to maintain the high approval ratings of her predecessor by focusing on continuity and robust social spending. She is navigating a very complex relationship with Washington while ensuring that her domestic base remains satisfied with the direct transfers and economic stability. Her challenge is balancing that populism with the very real requirements of the US-Mexico trade relationship.”

“Lula has surprised many people who expected a much more radical left-wing economic agenda. Instead, he’s been relatively pragmatic on the fiscal side, working within the constraints of the Brazilian system to keep the markets calm while still delivering on his social promises. The economic performance under his watch has been better than many analysts predicted when he first took office.”

“The primary driver of political survival in Latin America right now isn't necessarily about who is in the White House, but who can keep prices stable. Inflation was the killer for the previous generation of leaders, and the current crop is obsessed with not letting it spiral out of control. If you lose control of the currency or the price of bread, no amount of geopolitical dealmaking can save your administration.”

“Every leader in the region is operating on a four-year clock. They know that while there is high value in being close to Trump right now, that relationship has an expiration date, and they are trying to squeeze as much investment and trade benefit as possible before the wind shifts again. They are focused on short-term wins because the long-term political landscape in the U.S. is so volatile.”