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Layoffs are the economy’s primary recession risk
“Zandi, I think hit the nail right on the head. Layoffs are the biggest concern. What we're seeing in the labor market is a slowdown of the gears. If workers go from job to job to unemployment to job again, mobility is everything for workers. Layoffs would just dump enough workers into unemployment in a labor market that's already slowly churning, and it could lead to a terrible recession quite quickly.”
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Labor market gears have slowed for three years
“If you think of the back of a watch and you turn it over and you see the gears rotating and the cogs hitting, that's how you should picture the labor market. We have now three years of data showing just how much those gears have slowed. It's not something that we typically and historically see in the unemployment rate, but we're not seeing now. You can look at hiring, you can look at quits, you can look at the three month growth in wages. They all point to a decline in labor market mobility.”
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The US economy shed jobs in four months last year
“One data point, one jobs report does not make or break the labor market. What's more concerning for me is that the economy shed jobs in four months of last year. And in fact, we've seen these numbers keep on getting revised down. It's hard to tell how close we are to that point and if we're actually approaching it, but the gears of the labor market have clearly slowed.”
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Increasing inflation threatens to force higher interest rates
“Consumer prices rose 3.3 percent year over year in March. That is the biggest increase we've seen since 2024. If inflation continues to climb, the Fed may have to respond by raising rates, which would only add more strain. With all eyes on the labor market, we thought it was a great time to bring in our resident labor market expert.”
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Tight immigration policies risk slowing labor force growth
“Several forces are converging that could reshape employment in a meaningful way. First, AI is already starting to show up in the data, emerging as the top cited reason for planned layoffs last month. Second, the Trump administration is tightening immigration, which has historically been a key driver of growth for the US labor force.”
WATCH LAYOFFS
All podcast episode summaries matching WATCH LAYOFFS — aggregated across every podcast we track.
“If you think of the back of a watch and you turn it over and you see the gears rotating and the cogs hitting, that's how you should picture the labor market. We have now three years of data showing just how much those gears have slowed. It's not something that we typically and historically see in the unemployment rate, but we're not seeing now. You can look at hiring, you can look at quits, you can look at the three month growth in wages. They all point to a decline in labor market mobility.”
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Deni Avdija's performance impacts All-NBA award voting
“Traditionally, our votes would have been due by now. Instead, we're watching these games and they have given us another set of games to reevaluate our choices and rethink things. But, yeah, Denny, obviously, playing one of the games of the year for him, and making us rethink where he should be in these awards. Unbelievable. He was awesome.”
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Portland's elite defense makes them dangerous play-in contenders
“But, yeah, this is the twenty third ranked offense since the all star break, but it's the third ranked defense. They're gonna be tough to score on. And if the one of the things I'm worried about as a Spurs guy is the ability for these young guards to shoot, their threes. We've both been really positive about them as the season's gone on about getting better. But the playoffs have a way of making teams cool off.”
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The Phoenix Suns face a significant talent deficit crisis
“What really kinda revealed itself is the this overachieving Suns team. They just they have a talent deficit, and that's not a knock. Like, this was supposed to be kind of a transition rebuilding year to wash out the horrendous taste that was left in their mouths from what they tried last year. And it turned out that, like, chemistry matters. The secret that I learned from the book of basketball is that chemistry matters.”
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Jalen Green's high shot volume hindered Phoenix's offense
“I'm fine with Jalen Green taking 29 shots in a world where Devin Booker is hurt. But in a world where Devin Booker is fine, I wanted him to take... whoever wins that that nine, ten game in the West should feel pretty good about their opponent in Phoenix. It's a team that I thought the wrong guy took 29 shots.”
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Bill Simmons finalized his fluctuating MVP award pick
“So if you care about who I pick for MVP, something I changed my mind on 430 times over the weekend, that is at the tail end of the podcast. Saved it for last, like a big fat dessert. So that is coming up next. We're gonna take break and then bring in Pearl Jam and then Kirk and House late night Tuesday after two play games.”
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