WATCH EARNINGS

“Now, if you look at after the shock, so like March 1st and to present, a lot of things correlated. You looked at equities, you looked at treasuries, you looked at investment grade credit, really high correlation to each other. ... Basically what it is is everybody's selling indiscriminately and they're trying to raise cash and there's a lot of leverage and so they're deleveraging and the deleveraging causes everything to go down, not just money rotating from one place to the next.”

“Increasingly, when I look at Airbnb, I see Marriott. I see a mature lodging business, asset light, that can outperform but is not going to be a high-growth stock. I've kind of given up on experiences as kind of a new rocket ship. I think now we're just kind of waking up to this is more of a lodging company than it is a tech company, maybe?”

“Nuclear shouldn't be a surprise to anybody, neither should geothermal. ... Biomass comes in at third, the most consistent source of energy out there. And even before we get down to coal, you can add wood and natural gas above that. So I think it bodes the question, and I know we're starting to see some things come back around using nuclear, but it bodes the question, are we putting our folks in the right places if we're really, truly concerned about being efficient on where we get our energy?”

“The interesting part is, it takes about six weeks for the tankers to get to where they're going. This week or next is when the oil shock really actually hits. We're still going to have six weeks of this. For a lot of countries, and a lot of countries have actually struggled, they've all taken different tacks as to how to handle the fuel crisis. Some are doing subsidies, some are rationing.”

“We said, there's a pump in the cards. There is a pump trying to happen, but we gotta turn three resistances into support. Then it's gonna be party time. Right now, we're just in the parallel range. The three instances that we gotta flip here, 2400, 100 day, the parallel range here. Gosh darn it, we tried to close above it. We really did. I mean, we did close above. We opened here on Sunday. Would close the Daily Candle up here, wicked all the way up here earlier, and then now we are falling back below. So we are being rejected off the $2400 range and the 100 day range.”

“In the earnings call, several of the CEOs struck a notably cautious tone as geopolitical uncertainty lingers. Jamie Dimon warned of wars, energy price volatility, trade uncertainty, large global fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon also pointed out heightened uncertainty in parts of private credit and the conflict in the Middle East. And Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser warned that one great first quarter does not a full year make.”

“Tomorrow or the day after that, we have Amazon, Meta, Microsoft. That is huge, folks. That's gonna be huge. The day after that, we have Apple, also gonna be major. And then Friday, more important than normal because it's gonna be Chevron and ExxonMobil. And so huge, huge earnings weeks. This is the biggest week, of each quarter is the week that we get the Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta. You get the oil giants. You get a couple bellwethers for the economy. So it's gonna be a huge, huge day in the market.”

“I saw operating margin for the quarter 15.5%. That's versus 11.2% a year ago. And so I think we had some questions really early on in the Spotify story as to exactly how quickly they could get to profitability and how profitable the company could be given the nature of the relationships with publishers and just the music business in general. You know, Travis, I just realized they passed a $2 price increase on the family plan... I'm happily, happily paying.”

“Effectively, what we saw this week is that, a week ago when we were talking, the markets were still pricing fear. Today, they're pricing relief. What was interesting is that when we first went into this conflict, we saw the markets pull back, but the way the market is treating it now, it seems like everything is fine, all clear.”

“The language we had been talking, we've been using over the last couple of years with Cloudflare, and with a number of enterprise software type companies, the elongated sales cycle, sort of the trepidation of their customers to commit to spending, those days seemed to be well past us. It was another very solid report. They grew revenue 34% for the quarter, well exceeding their own guidance, guiding for another tremendous year, 28% revenue growth.”

“We're gonna look at the liquidation heat map. This is where traders are getting liquidated. And so oftentimes price is incentivized to go to that level because exchanges will make a lot of money. And you could say, maybe it's market makers, maybe it's the exchange is trading against the users, maybe it's just the psychology of a human being... It's no surprise we're gonna see liquidations right around 80K. And a little bit below 76, basically 77,000 even. 77,000 even. Oh yeah, coming in right below this wick right here. So coming in right below that wick, if it goes that low, nothing insane, nothing to worry about.”

“But the business has changed some, so it's not just intermediation, which you're talking about, but there's a financing piece of it. Things like prime brokerage and where investment banks are providing loans to hedge funds, that has grown a lot. If you look at the segment disclosures, for example, and you look at the markets businesses and the size of the balance sheets of these businesses, they are growing quite a bit. And that tends to be a little bit more durable than the intermediation side.”

“Michael Saylor is about to do a mega purchase, folks. We don't know how large this is, but we do know that's a juicy orange circle. And so I I didn't have quite enough time. If I would have done a normal show, I probably would have probably would have looked at what this size was or this number of Bitcoin, because I'll say this orange circle, pretty similar to this orange circle as far as size goes. And if it'll if you look a little closely, this looks like the biggest purchase he's had since this area right here.”

“Israeli air strikes hit the Mediterranean resort city of Tyre and border villages Israel says it's seizing from Lebanon to create what it calls a buffer zone where Hezbollah can't fire rockets. The Lebanese Red Cross says one of its ambulance teams was directly targeted by an Israeli drone, killing one paramedic and wounding another.”

“This is exciting, but the markets are really overstretched. So when the market bottomed recently, a few weeks ago, it was overstretched to the downside. Now it's overstretched to the upside. And it doesn't mean it can't keep going up, but it does mean you should use caution. Don't just necessarily jump in willy-nilly and put it all in black and say, let it ride. Certainly sentiments out of Washington could change anytime.”

“This is exciting, but the markets are really overstretched. So when the market bottomed recently, a few weeks ago, it was overstretched to the downside. Now it's overstretched to the upside. And it doesn't mean it can't keep going up, but it does mean you should use caution. Don't just necessarily jump in willy-nilly and put it all in black and say, let it ride.”

“Historically high volatility has not been good for investment banking, but it has been good for sales and trading. But right now, we're hitting on all cylinders where trading results are really strong and benefiting from volatility, but it's not undermining deal-making. I think a lot of corporates have now come to the conclusion that volatility may be a feature of the system as opposed to a bug and have to continue investing and raising capital and doing deals.”

“The growth rate of inflation-just consumer spending slowed somewhat in recent months, nothing catastrophic, coming in at an average of 1.2% annualized over the next six months ending in February. By comparison, though, we had seen that it was growing at an average rate of 3.6%. So that is less than half per month in 2023 and 2024 So that's slowed down in spending. Again, we're talking about profits. That has a direct impact on that.”

“The thing to watch for earnings season, it's not the earnings themselves, it's how the market reacts to the earnings. What we've seen, if you're looking at the markets, let's say a company comes out with really bad results, and the market goes up. That's actually a good sign. That means most of the bad results are already priced in and it was better than people expected.”

“Apparently, the war is over, which for all intents and purposes, I'm not sure if it is, but the Strait of Hormuz is open, as far as we know, which means that global traffic will be coming in and out of the Strait of Hormuz now, we think. However, given the fact that the propaganda and the news coming out of the Middle East has been sketchy at best, I'm gonna reserve my thoughts till we're a little bit further down the line.”

“They're only guiding for minimal revenue growth in 2026, under 5%, no margin expansion. This, they say, is temporary. They're doing model changeovers, but look, the Ferrari model is you got a huge waiting list. Just sell the cars, just jack up prices. I don't get why it's working. I think I still like this company, but it's still trading at more than 30 times expected earnings.”

“The thing to watch for earnings season, it's not the earnings themselves, it's how the market reacts to the earnings. What we've seen, if you're looking at the markets, let's say a company comes out with really bad results, and the market goes up. That's actually a good sign. That means most of the bad results are already priced in and it was better than people expected.”

“This is exciting, but the markets are really overstretched. So when the market bottomed recently, a few weeks ago, it was overstretched to the downside. Now it's overstretched to the upside. And it doesn't mean it can't keep going up, but it does mean you should use caution. Don't just necessarily jump in willy-nilly and put it all in black and say, let it ride.”

“The interesting part is, it takes about six weeks for the tankers to get to where they're going. This week or next is when the oil shock really actually hits. We're still going to have six weeks of this. For a lot of countries, and a lot of countries have actually struggled, they've all taken different tacks as to how to handle the fuel crisis. Some are doing subsidies, some are rationing.”

“S&P 500 getting above this range. This range has been stuck in since 2020 You can go all the way back to the COVID lows where it caught the bottom. You can see the tariff tantrum even more recently, and you see a couple down moves right there after 2022 January, you can see just a lot of indices were down, and it goes all the way back here to, I said COVID 2017 And so this is a 10 year parallel range, almost, nine years here. Look, we are trying to break above here. So this could be very bullish, but last time we were above it, we were above it for two days, and it didn't end up doing anything. We actually came back down to the midway point right there.”

“Right now, we're just in the parallel range. The three instances that we gotta flip here, 2,400, one hundred day, the parallel range here. Gosh darn it. We tried to close above it. We really did. We I mean, we did close it, but we opened here on Sunday. We closed the daily candle here, wicked all the way up here earlier, and then now we are falling back below. So we are being rejected off the 2,400 range and the one hundred day range. So update, we are rejecting off this range.”

“The twenty day moving average looks like it wants to go above the one hundred day moving average. Is this bullish? Should we celebrate? Should we pop the champagne? Yes. If you look at the previous times, this will make you wanna pop the champagne. So the last time we saw this is April 2025. Right here. April 20 that's actually crazy. 04/25/2025. Right now, it is 04/27/2026. So we're talking about three hundred and sixty seven days ago was the last time we saw this. When it passed above, it would use it as support, use it as support, would lose it as support, but then the one hundred day was support.”

“Effectively, what we saw this week is that, a week ago when we were talking, the markets were still pricing fear. Today, they're pricing relief. What was interesting is that when we first went into this conflict, we saw the markets pull back, but the way the market is treating it now, it seems like everything is fine, all clear.”

“Michael Saylor is about to do a mega purchase, folks. We don't know how large this is, but we do know that's a juicy orange circle. So this is sized not by dollars, but by Bitcoin. And so I didn't have quite enough time. If I would have done a normal show, I probably would have looked up what this size was or this number of Bitcoin because I'll say this orange circle pretty similar to this orange circle as far as size goes. And if you look a little closely, this looks like the biggest purchase he's had since this area right here. And so we're talking about a major purchase of Bitcoin is going to be probably announced sometime in the next two hours.”

“Once a month or once every other month, we're encountering something that we we've never seen before, and we haven't seen indications of it being seen in The United States before either.”

“Unemployment is really important here. As long as people are employed and wages are going up, they're spending. We hear a lot about the two-speed economy and the K-shaped economy. I think a better way to frame it is an E-shaped economy, where the high end is growing more, spending more than the low end. But there's no delta, there's no inflection in terms of the trends right now. There's not a worsening at the low end. It's kind of stable.”

“Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and other big banks will report results from the last three months, giving investors a window into the economic fallout from the war in Iran and the resulting energy crisis. Surging oil prices have pushed up costs for both companies and consumers, and banks like JPMorgan do business with both.”

“The interesting part is, it takes about six weeks for the tankers to get to where they're going. This week or next is when the oil shock really actually hits. We're still going to have six weeks of this. For a lot of countries, and a lot of countries have actually struggled. ... The global economy has already started to absorb the hit. The oil shock, it has not fully reversed. It is still elevated. It is still volatile. The markets have moved on, but energy still hasn't.”

“Litecoin had all types of issues. I don't know if that has something to do with the AI suite of tools with cybersecurity, anthropic tools for perhaps I don't know. We're we're not gonna get into it, but, basically, it's a a DDoS attack. Had to rewrite a few blocks. Pulled up the Litecoin chart. Litecoin just looks terrible. I I've saw this chart, and it just it does not look great. There's obviously, you zoom out on the weekly. That's not what you wanna see.”

“I said, keep an eye out on this level. This is a very, very important level. I expect Cardano to hold support here. But if it loses support, it really should bounce near this 24¢. And look at that, folks. Oh, actually, it looks like we're trying to lose it. Uh-oh. Uh-oh. So Cardano might be revisiting 24¢ if it cannot hold this range. But I would also say, look at the liquidation heat map. Let me pull that up. I meant to look at that for Bitcoin as well.”

“The pattern suggests that while tight monetary policy and soft aggregate demand are putting downward pressure on inflation, sector-specific factors, things like tariffs, strong demand for semi-conductors have kept overall inflation from declining on net. ... Right now, they're projecting that inflation will reach the Federal Reserve's 2% goal by mid-2028. Although, there's considerable upside risk to this. The projected inflation path, given the high uncertainty around the duration of the conflict.”

“The thing to watch for earnings season, it's not the earnings themselves, it's how the market reacts to the earnings. What we've seen, if you're looking at the markets, let's say a company comes out with really bad results, and the market goes up. That's actually a good sign. That means most of the bad results are already priced in and it was better than people expected. But if they come out with great earnings, the market sells off, that's a bad sign.”

“The 20 day moving average looks like it wants to go above the 100 day moving average. Is this bullish? Should we celebrate? Should we pop the champagne? Yes, if you look at the previous times, this will make you want to pop the champagne. So the last time we saw this is April 2025 Right here, April 25th. That's actually crazy. April 25th of 2025 Right now, it is April 27th of 2026 So we're talking about 367 days ago. This is the last time we saw this. When it passed above, it would use it as support, it would sit as support, it would lose it as support, but then the 100 day was support. By that point, we were off to the races, folks. Go straight up.”

“Effectively, what we saw this week is that, a week ago when we were talking, the markets were still pricing fear. Today, they're pricing relief. What was interesting is that when we first went into this conflict, we saw the markets pull back, but you and I talked about this, they didn't really pull back that much. But now, instead of just going back to where the markets were prior to this conflict, they've jumped ahead and once again, S&P is at all time high.”

“I said, watch out for this support here. You can see it really, really good on the four hour. And so I filmed this Friday afternoon. That's Friday at midnight. So I filmed this here. I filmed this like, yeah. And after this is when I filmed the Cardano video, I said, keep an eye out on this level. This is a very, very important level. I expect Cardano to hold support here. But if it loses support, I really should bounce near this 24 cents. And look at that, folks. Oh, actually looks like we're trying to lose it. Uh-oh, uh-oh, so Cardano might be revisiting 24 cents if it cannot hold this range.”

“The US Central Command says it will begin a blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas starting in six hours. President Trump ordered the blockade after peace talks collapsed this weekend in Pakistan.”

“I think one of the question marks I have with Shopify, it's not really specific to their business, but we just hear more and more talk about this agentic commerce, right? And exactly what that means. And so I think we're going to see how that opportunity and agentic commerce shapes up over the coming quarters and years. They certainly discussed their AI investments on the call. They're very excited with the opportunities, the efficiencies, helping their merchants run better businesses.”

“We're seeing a nice little pop on a few indices, and that's because oil is down. The daily range here, you can see, put in a lower range than we put in Friday. We started right here on Friday, wicked all the way down here, closed right here on Friday. But if you go into the wee hours right here, Monday, this is gonna be Sunday at midnight, Sunday evening, and right here, you can see when the market's open. So we opened a little bit higher than Sunday, but then started to pull back, and now we're starting to pull back even more. Stock market's gonna love if oil keeps crashing, ant crashing if it keeps falling, and Bitcoin's gonna love it if it keeps falling.”

“Apparently, the war is over, which for all intents and purposes, I'm not sure if it is, but the Strait of Hormuz is open, as far as we know, which means that global traffic will be coming in and out of the Strait of Hormuz now, we think. However, given the fact that the propaganda and the news coming out of the Middle East has been sketchy at best, I'm gonna reserve my thoughts till we're a little bit further down the line.”

“Now, on the trading side that you mentioned, yes, the war did help. I do think, though, that trading was already tracking—the markets businesses were already tracking to pretty good results even before the war. On average, I think you had 17% year-on-year growth overall. As you mentioned, equities was a particular standout. I think one of the big questions, though, as we go forward is how durable these results are, especially in markets.”

“Iran effectively closed down the Strait Of Hormuz, this, 21 mile wide waterway, and very few ships have been going in or out of the Gulf in recent weeks. It was more than a 100 ships a day before the war. Now it's just a handful.”