WATCH OIL LAG

“The thing to watch for earnings season, it's not the earnings themselves, it's how the market reacts to the earnings. What we've seen, if you're looking at the markets, let's say a company comes out with really bad results, and the market goes up. That's actually a good sign. That means most of the bad results are already priced in and it was better than people expected.”

“Effectively, what we saw this week is that, a week ago when we were talking, the markets were still pricing fear. Today, they're pricing relief. What was interesting is that when we first went into this conflict, we saw the markets pull back, but the way the market is treating it now, it seems like everything is fine, all clear.”

“Apparently, the war is over, which for all intents and purposes, I'm not sure if it is, but the Strait of Hormuz is open, as far as we know, which means that global traffic will be coming in and out of the Strait of Hormuz now, we think. However, given the fact that the propaganda and the news coming out of the Middle East has been sketchy at best, I'm gonna reserve my thoughts till we're a little bit further down the line.”

“The interesting part is, it takes about six weeks for the tankers to get to where they're going. This week or next is when the oil shock really actually hits. We're still going to have six weeks of this. For a lot of countries, and a lot of countries have actually struggled, they've all taken different tacks as to how to handle the fuel crisis. Some are doing subsidies, some are rationing.”

“This is exciting, but the markets are really overstretched. So when the market bottomed recently, a few weeks ago, it was overstretched to the downside. Now it's overstretched to the upside. And it doesn't mean it can't keep going up, but it does mean you should use caution. Don't just necessarily jump in willy-nilly and put it all in black and say, let it ride.”