“In some cases, proceeds from the oil sales are sent directly to Chinese construction companies who take the money as payment for building infrastructure in Iran. So there's this barter system that means that that, money never even has to touch the international financial system and and be overseen by The US. One of the other things it could do is it gets paid for the oil in a in a bank account in China, and then it could use that money to procure things in China that, Iranian importers need.”
“According to Boston Consulting Group, over the next two to three years, 50 to 55% of all jobs in The United States will be reshaped by AI. Not replaced, reshaped. For many employees, this will mean they retain the same or similar role, but face radically new expectations for how they work and what they produce.”
Chinese parts in US robots create surveillance risks
“If you don't have control of that technology, especially in crucial infrastructure areas, you may be concerned that if you're using Chinese technology, could they somehow be controlling it from China or someplace linked to China? Do you want that kind of control handed over to another state, especially for a state like China where the US is competing with?”
Shift to Regional Burden-Sharing - The Trump administration is moving away from direct military intervention toward a model where regional allies are expected to take the lead in maintaining power balances.
“The United States is transitioning from being the global policeman to an offshore balancer of power.”
DOJ indicts SPLC for fraud and funding extremist groups
“The Southern Poverty Law Center in a massive sweeping indictment has been charged with allegations of fraud and using the banking system to perpetrate that fraud. I just want to talk about a couple of brief things here. The Southern Poverty Law Center themselves advertise to raise money to dismantle violent extremist groups for a period of at least a decade.”
Airlines cancel thousands of flights as fuel prices surge
“Lufthansa planning to cancel 20,000 short haul flights to save jet fuel. 20,000 short haul flights to save on jet fuel, and that's not just the only story. United Airlines slash in 2026 forecast as fuel cost surge, and that story leads to the next one.”
AI-driven deflation could push interest rates to negative
“AI, I think, is going to be tremendously deflationary. It's going to drive the cost of goods down, the cost of service down. I actually think that AI will potentially drive interest rates negative. Whereas if you have $100 in a bank account, you will be paying 1% to the bank to keep that money in the bank account.”
Kevin Warsh faces fiery Federal Reserve confirmation hearing
“The Senate should not be aiding and abetting Donald Trump's illegal takeover of the Fed by installing his chosen sock puppet as chair. It's an invitation for corruption and for economic catastrophe. We have the power to stop it and we should be using that power.”
“The number of people who like AI is going down. The number of people using AI is going up. So many of the people using it are saying they simultaneously don't like it, which, by the way, is very often common with the free market. Pretty much everybody who complains about the free market is a beneficiary of the free market.”
Humans are harder to replicate than engineers expected
“But also, what I noticed when I looked at the humanoids, a lot of them running or doing certain tasks in China was that actually humans are really great, like they can do very complicated tasks, their hands, their legs, their feet, in a way that we never imagined how hard it would be for humanoids to do those. So realizing that, it's still going to be years until they can really be useful, really be smart, and be able to do tasks that humans would think are quite simple.”
“What you might just see as a result of all of this is that there is this this push by these countries, this anti U. S. Bloc, you know, led by countries like China and Russia and Iran to create systems that cut out The U. S. Entirely and cut out the U. S. Dollar. And so mean that there's less oversight by Washington of what countries around the world are doing.”
“I did the Vision Pro demo and was in awe of this thing. Somehow convinced my spouse to let me get $3,500 to spend on the device, and after six days, took it back. Within six days, I realized this thing is useless. You can't have it on your head for more than 45 minutes. It's an engineering marvel, but it's basically a disaster as a product. No pun intended, it lacks vision. That's Tim Cook, the engineering talent in the company can build a great product, but it doesn't have an ecosystem. I don't think Tim Cook is much of a partnerships guy.”
“One particular Iranian ship that might be part of the ghost fleet of tankers, it would get loaded with Iranian crude and move from the Persian Gulf... and then it might go to the Gulf Of Oman to the middle of the sea. And at that point, it might turn off a tracking system that it's supposed to have on the, on the tanker that reports its whereabouts. And at that point, maybe you might see another ship tie it's tied up to the to the first ship, and you'd see the crude move between the different ships, and that's called a ship to ship transfer.”
“As you said, $3.6 trillion added to Apple's market cap. He clearly fulfilled whatever tasks Steve Jobs set him out to do. His role was not necessarily to come up with breakthrough products. It was to iterate what Steve Jobs had already come up with on a global scale. He squeezed every penny that was really available in the supply chain. He built up services, he put Apple into new areas like Apple TV and a host of things like that. He's getting $20 billion of profit per year just out of the Google relationship, just using the user base in Apple's favor.”
“One major risk, of course, is that the IRGC and Iran itself lashes out. They have threatened to attack these US Navy ships, and so you could have a major escalation of the fighting again based over the ships coming into the strait or even standing back outside.”
“America must win. We have to win economically, we have to win militarily, and that means that we do have to win technologically. There's a movement afoot in our country that will destroy all of that, that will let China win and sink America into poverty and dependence.”
Operations now prioritize rigid deadlines over creative innovation
“What Tim did over time was turn Apple into a juggernaut, a giant machine where operations had a bigger voice in product development. Some of that was necessity. They're making 200 million iPhones a year. You have to make sure that you hit certain deadlines to be able to deliver those iPhones. But the rigidness of those deadlines closed some of the creativity possibilities for people who had once developed these products in a more nimble fashion, and that's locked them into the product lineup they have, and to Patrick's point, made it hard to be as innovative as they once were.”
Operations now prioritize rigid deadlines over creative innovation
“What Tim did over time was turn Apple into a juggernaut, a giant machine where operations had a bigger voice in product development. Some of that was necessity. They're making 200 million iPhones a year. You have to make sure that you hit certain deadlines to be able to deliver those iPhones. But the rigidness of those deadlines closed some of the creativity possibilities for people who had once developed these products in a more nimble fashion, and that's locked them into the product lineup they have, and to Patrick's point, made it hard to be as innovative as they once were.”
Depopulation makes AI adoption economically essential
“If we didn't have AI, we'd be in a panic right now about what's gonna happen to the economy because what we'd be staring at is a future of depopulation. Depopulation without new technology would just mean that the economy shrinks. It would mean that the economy kind of itself kind of shrinks over time and the opportunity diminishes.”
US leads in AI brains, China dominates robot hardware
“The US is seen to have an edge over China when it comes to the brain part. That's the AI side of things. It's the large language models. It could be the chips, and the US is, generally speaking, seen to be ahead. But again, when it comes to hardware, that area, China is just so dominant, and so you can have the brain, but you still need to build the actual hardware.”
AI will replace half of American jobs within decade
“I wouldn't be surprised if we see within 10 years, 50 percent of the jobs in America gone. AI will replace all intellectual capital. Robotics combined with AI will replace all human physical labor. Within 20 years, it is probably 90 percent.”
“The teapots are a set of refineries, based largely based in one province in Northeastern China called Shandong. ... what happened over time, as you saw, the government increase the quotas for these teapots to import Iranian oil. And what that meant is that more oil moved from the state owned giants who essentially exited the market along with Western countries and Asian nations that were buying Iranian oil. And these private teapot refineries took over, essentially.”
Aging population drives China's robot labor strategy
“The elderly people just have less workers that are able to do that kind of work. So with that demographic issue in mind, I think they find robotics to be very important. And with such rapid pace of aging, you're definitely going to need caretakers. And there may not be enough caretakers to look after these older people. And humanoids are considered to be one potential technology to help China cope with aging.”
China caught sending missile-related chemicals to Iran
“we caught a ship yesterday that had some things on it which wasn't very nice, a gift from China perhaps. I don't know. But I was a little surprised because I have a very good relationship and I thought I had an understanding with President Xi, but that's all right.”
“But what The US blockade has demonstrated is that quite easily you can use force to disrupt that entire operation and, and the threat of force even because you don't necessarily even have to, intercept ships to do that. You just have to create a sense of fear that The US will. ... The blockade, at least for now, is ensuring that Iran can't export oil and therefore it loses access to its financial lifeline.”
Apple remains drastically behind competitors in AI spending
“Is this part of the AI problem here? We talked about the fact that Apple is basically the only company that is not investing hundreds of billions of dollars into AI infrastructure. I mean, look at Amazon, its CapEx is expected to reach $200 billion this year. For Google, it's close to that, $175 billion. Then Apple is going to spend only $14 billion. They're actually cutting their spending. What does that say about the company? Is that because they don't have vision, or is it because they have discipline?”
China and Services became Apple's financial bedrock
“The first was striking a China mobile deal two years after taking over as CEO of the company. It changed Apple's trajectory in China. It unlocked the iPhone in China and turned China not just from a market that made and produced the iPhone, but it turned Apple into a company that really captured sales from the rising middle class in China. That's really become a bedrock of their business. Then the second thing he did was he looked at the iPhone and he said, okay, well, how do we make more money off a product that now is in the pockets of a billion people around the world? He leaned into services in 2019 and made that a focus.”
“China's position on US sanctions is that they don't support them, and they think that they're a unilateral move by The US, and that's US policy, but that and that they don't have to enforce US sanctions. For China, it's also geopolitical. China has a far deeper relationship with Iran than just, buying its oil. ... China saw the opportunity, not only to get cheap oil, but to help a friend, and at the same time, undermine US interests.”
Iran seized cargo ships threatening global oil supply
“Number one, just at 4.25 this morning, less than five hours ago, three ships were hit. Two of them were seized by Iran. One of them is Panamanian ship. The other one is a Greek ship. And they've been seized by Iran.”
Universal AI tutors will revolutionize global education access
“If you are a poor seven-year-old in Peru, milking your cows on your dad's farm, AI is going to change your life so much for the better. That boy is going to have access to an education level greater than a Harvard PhD can now experience. He'll have access to that free education, a free AI tutor, and internet via satellite for near free.”
“The number of people who like AI is going down. The number of people using AI is going up. So many of the people using it are saying they simultaneously don't like it, which, by the way, is very often common with the free market. Pretty much everybody who complains about the free market is a beneficiary of the free market.”
“Investments in information processing equipment and software was only 4% of US GDP for the first half of 2025, but it accounted for 92% of all GDP growth over that period. These companies are investing heavily in data centers because that is the basis for all of the compute that is necessary for AI. They're building these giant data centers everywhere.”
Trump extends Iran ceasefire but remains ready to bomb
“Well, I expect to be bombing because I think that's a better attitude to go in with. But we're ready to go. I mean, the military is raring to go. They are absolutely incredible. I built the military in my first term. I'm using it now.”
“I did the Vision Pro demo and was in awe of this thing. Somehow convinced my spouse to let me get $3,500 to spend on the device, and after six days, took it back. Within six days, I realized this thing is useless. You can't have it on your head for more than 45 minutes. It's an engineering marvel, but it's basically a disaster as a product. No pun intended, it lacks vision. That's Tim Cook, the engineering talent in the company can build a great product, but it doesn't have an ecosystem. I don't think Tim Cook is much of a partnerships guy.”
Robocop interns are already directing Chinese traffic
“The government itself, in providing certain services, has introduced humanoids. Again, these are still at a very early stage, but there are some Robocops in, for instance, a city like Hangzhou, where they have a Robocop intern doing some traffic control.”
Infrastructure damage threatens long-term energy production
“I'd say a third big category of risk is that Iran responds by restarting attacks on energy infrastructure throughout the Persian Gulf. That is one that carries really long-term risks for the global energy system and the global economy, because as you do more damage to the region's infrastructure, prevent refineries from operating, you risk taking energy offline for a long period of time.”
China and Services became Apple's financial bedrock
“The first was striking a China mobile deal two years after taking over as CEO of the company. It changed Apple's trajectory in China. It unlocked the iPhone in China and turned China not just from a market that made and produced the iPhone, but it turned Apple into a company that really captured sales from the rising middle class in China. That's really become a bedrock of their business. Then the second thing he did was he looked at the iPhone and he said, okay, well, how do we make more money off a product that now is in the pockets of a billion people around the world? He leaned into services in 2019 and made that a focus.”
“There's a 10 to 30 percent chance it kills us all, but there's a 70 percent chance that we live in an age of abundance that you couldn't even have contemplated 10 years ago. I'm incredibly optimistic about AI, but I'm being kind when I say it is a one in three chance of being wiped out by the end of the century.”
“According to Boston Consulting Group, over the next two to three years, 50 to 55% of all jobs in The United States will be reshaped by AI. Not replaced, reshaped. For many employees, this will mean they retain the same or similar role, but face radically new expectations for how they work and what they produce.”
Gen Z prioritizes weight-loss benefits over traditional PTO
“A new zip held survey of more than 1000 workers found 47% of Zoomers. The generation ages 14 to 29 said coverage like for drugs like Ozempic or Wegoi, Wegovi, how do you pronounce it? Wegovi? Am I saying it correctly? Wegovi. Wegovi would sway their decision between two job offers.”
China trade relations face significant blockade disruption
“90 percent of the oil that Iran ships out is headed to China. Much of it is on Chinese crewed, Chinese flagged ships. The president's supposed to go to Beijing in about four weeks, and what he was hoping was going to be this meeting all about a new detente between China and the United States.”
“China's position on US sanctions is that they don't support them, and they think that they're a unilateral move by The US, and that's US policy, but that and that they don't have to enforce US sanctions. For China, it's also geopolitical. China has a far deeper relationship with Iran than just, buying its oil. ... China saw the opportunity, not only to get cheap oil, but to help a friend, and at the same time, undermine US interests.”
Apple remains drastically behind competitors in AI spending
“Is this part of the AI problem here? We talked about the fact that Apple is basically the only company that is not investing hundreds of billions of dollars into AI infrastructure. I mean, look at Amazon, its CapEx is expected to reach $200 billion this year. For Google, it's close to that, $175 billion. Then Apple is going to spend only $14 billion. They're actually cutting their spending. What does that say about the company? Is that because they don't have vision, or is it because they have discipline?”
“In some cases, proceeds from the oil sales are sent directly to Chinese construction companies who take the money as payment for building infrastructure in Iran. So there's this barter system that means that that, money never even has to touch the international financial system and and be overseen by The US. One of the other things it could do is it gets paid for the oil in a in a bank account in China, and then it could use that money to procure things in China that, Iranian importers need.”
Government subsidies and state purchases fuel robot industry
“Those might be everything from offering a cheap or free land for a few years as they set up a factory or office space. It might also be about having some state-linked banks offer better long-terms. It could also be that they offer subsidies to buyers. So if you're buying a humanoid, you might get, say, a 10% subsidy from the government, so that it just encourages buyers to give it a try even at a very early stage of technology.”
The US-China AI race mirrors the Manhattan Project
“It's very reminiscent of the Manhattan Project. If it was just America that was a hegemonic power and there was no Germany during World War II, maybe we would have taken more time and been a little bit more thoughtful from a philosophical moral perspective. But we didn't. It was a race. We were racing full steam ahead because we don't want China to get there before us.”
“The US Navy needed to do was reverse the dynamic, make sure that it wasn't the Iranians who were controlling traffic through the Strait, but that it was the US Navy that was. And that sounds like a fairly straightforward process given the size of the US Navy. But in fact, it turns out, it's looking like it will be pretty complicated to execute.”
“It's not only the overall Iranian economy that's dependent on this revenue, it's particularly the government and within that, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps which gets almost all of its revenue and thus its ability to pursue the war from oil exports.”
Depopulation makes AI adoption economically essential
“If we didn't have AI, we'd be in a panic right now about what's gonna happen to the economy because what we'd be staring at is a future of depopulation. Depopulation without new technology would just mean that the economy shrinks. It would mean that the economy kind of itself kind of shrinks over time and the opportunity diminishes.”
“But what The US blockade has demonstrated is that quite easily you can use force to disrupt that entire operation and, and the threat of force even because you don't necessarily even have to, intercept ships to do that. You just have to create a sense of fear that The US will. ... The blockade, at least for now, is ensuring that Iran can't export oil and therefore it loses access to its financial lifeline.”
“The teapots are a set of refineries, based largely based in one province in Northeastern China called Shandong. ... what happened over time, as you saw, the government increase the quotas for these teapots to import Iranian oil. And what that meant is that more oil moved from the state owned giants who essentially exited the market along with Western countries and Asian nations that were buying Iranian oil. And these private teapot refineries took over, essentially.”
Humanoid robots face a massive future production bottleneck
“I actually think that the bottleneck will be the production of humanoid robots. It won't be the fact that plumbing is too difficult, because if you think about it, there's 5,000 humanoid robots, and they all plumb for one year. Instead of having one year of experience of plumbing, they're all going to have 5,000 years of experience because they're all going to know everything that every other humanoid robot knows.”
“America must win. We have to win economically, we have to win militarily, and that means that we do have to win technologically. There's a movement afoot in our country that will destroy all of that, that will let China win and sink America into poverty and dependence.”
China is betting big on humanoid robots as embodied AI
“China is really all in the area of robotics and humanoids. You know, they are using subsidies. They are attracting a lot of good talents. Some are coming back from overseas. The country is really focused on it and all in.”
“What you might just see as a result of all of this is that there is this this push by these countries, this anti U. S. Bloc, you know, led by countries like China and Russia and Iran to create systems that cut out The U. S. Entirely and cut out the U. S. Dollar. And so mean that there's less oversight by Washington of what countries around the world are doing.”
“As you said, $3.6 trillion added to Apple's market cap. He clearly fulfilled whatever tasks Steve Jobs set him out to do. His role was not necessarily to come up with breakthrough products. It was to iterate what Steve Jobs had already come up with on a global scale. He squeezed every penny that was really available in the supply chain. He built up services, he put Apple into new areas like Apple TV and a host of things like that. He's getting $20 billion of profit per year just out of the Google relationship, just using the user base in Apple's favor.”
Prioritizing Great Power Competition - By resolving or de-escalating legacy conflicts in the Middle East, the U.S. seeks to redirect its strategic focus and resources toward the long-term challenge of China.
“The United States is transitioning from being the global policeman to an offshore balancer of power.”
“One particular Iranian ship that might be part of the ghost fleet of tankers, it would get loaded with Iranian crude and move from the Persian Gulf... and then it might go to the Gulf Of Oman to the middle of the sea. And at that point, it might turn off a tracking system that it's supposed to have on the, on the tanker that reports its whereabouts. And at that point, maybe you might see another ship tie it's tied up to the to the first ship, and you'd see the crude move between the different ships, and that's called a ship to ship transfer.”
“I think Tesla is the best positioned to dominate AI and robotics. But I still also believe that those types of things that are human in nature and that can't be produced by artificial intelligence will be what's valuable. The flex might be a Honus Wagner card or human art because rarity will come down to human culture.”
“Tim Cook has stepped down as Apple CEO and John Turner's named successor. Tom, is this a good thing or a bad thing? Personally, I like Tim Cook. I know a lot of people have some criticism of him, but we'll talk about Tim Cook as the new CEO, Tim Cook leaving and the new CEO coming in.”
“Investments in information processing equipment and software was only 4% of US GDP for the first half of 2025, but it accounted for 92% of all GDP growth over that period. These companies are investing heavily in data centers because that is the basis for all of the compute that is necessary for AI. They're building these giant data centers everywhere.”
