WATCH ARC

“Proof of work, obviously, it was itself an innovation and and sort of, essentially, like, the exhaust of the proof of work of Bitcoin is is just, like, the exhaust of energy consumption. And so it doesn't actually in some ways, it's waste in in a sense. The the energy is is waste. And and so I think the idea of, essentially, like, inference compute, as GPU, inference compute as proof of work. And so the work itself is the inference, and, that as the underlying basis for proof of work, cryptocurrency is pretty interesting, and would would be, you know, potentially something that could align with the kind of monetary principles of something like Bitcoin but actually, be productive, productive proof of work.”

“I'll put my neck out on the line here and say that the next time I see you, Bitcoin will be significantly higher. ... I believe we've had a massive distribution of which makes sense. And I think eventually when it when it breaks higher this time, I don't think it's gonna stop.”

“The submitted plans from the Harrison Design Firm show a structure very similar to the model that Trump showed off at a fundraising dinner at the White House last October. The proposed arch bears a striking resemblance to the Arc De Triomphe in Paris and is topped with two eagles and a winged crowned figure reminiscent of the Statue Of Liberty.”

“Kanye has been all over social media because at Paris Fashion Week, he wore a t-shirt that said White Lives Matter and brought Candace Owens out. She also wore it, and a lot of his models wore it with big bold lettering. Now he is doubling down on that, saying that the movement as a concept is essentially over.”

“I cannot count the number of times we would get asked why are you increasing your premiums by six percent, why not two percent, or why not zero percent, or they would just flat out reject the increase and say that premiums need to stay where they're at. The state to me sort of acts as this watchdog for the industry to ensure that consumers are being charged fair premiums.”

“It turns out in Hindu temples all over the world, if you bring milk to one of these statues, the milk disappears. This thing spreads worldwide. And at this point, journalists from around the world are covering it as well. They're doing new segments on it. They're sending reporters out to these temples to see if there's any truth to this story.”

“These prediction market companies exist because they’ve convinced regulators that they’re also great for the rest of us. They're adding new knowledge to the world, making us more informed about the future by providing a clearer picture of what people actually expect to happen.”

“The Artemis two astronauts are preparing for a return to Earth this evening. The three Americans and one Canadian are now under 150,000 miles from home after setting a new distance record during Monday's lunar flyby. They're aiming for splashdown in the Pacific off the coast of San Diego.”

“I think part of the problem is the market got over-hedged and indexed actual index realized volatility did not rise commensurately with the implied volatility. So implied volatility is forward-looking, realized volatility is backward-looking. And like we said, the index actual trading did not really move that much. So the implied volatility rolls off as time goes on, causes that short squeeze effect that we saw today.”

“I'm actually I'm warming up to that because I what I did this morning was I had Claude and chat review all the evidence again, and chat actually ran for two hours. I went through the evidence for the kind of, you know, 10 most commonly named candidates. It doesn't fit any of them, and I am actually starting to believe that for that reason, that it it might have been more than one person.”

“Apollo was when I was a child, and to be here now and say we actually did this. We've gone back, and we're gonna go, build a moon base. We are going to have an enduring presence on the moon. Just incredibly powerful.”

“I will find out what's going on. They're militarily defeated, and now, we're gonna open up the Gulf with them with or without them. But that'll be open. We're gonna be, or the straight as they call it. And I think it's gonna go pretty quickly.”

“The app is very brightly colored and super engaging. There's charts all over the place, and you kinda can't stop looking at the thing. You can literally see trades just flowing all over the screen in real time, and it feels like being in an arcade.”

“The lies linking me with the disgraceful Jeffrey Epstein need to end today. The individuals lying about me are devoid of ethical standards, humility, and respect. Melania Trump also denied that Epstein introduced her to Donald Trump and said she is not one of Epstein's victims. She urged congress to hold public hearings for them.”

“This is wartime allocation of capital. And this isn't just about the Iran situation, this is about what's been building for three years, four years, five years. It just favors scarce resources you can't print. The incentives here point to inflation, and inflation is really bad for risk assets because it sends bond yields higher and equity multiples lower.”

“I had a dream and it had nothing. It was just a normal dream. And then something happened and there was a knock at my door and I opened the door and Satan was standing at the door and he had sliced off Jesus's face and was wearing it like a mask. And he did this little toe tap routine. And it wasn't like the devil with like the red horns and the pointy tail.”

“The Brazilian regulator will no longer require Morse code for amateur licenses under the changes that have been under consideration since 2020. The regulator will update content in its exams for its three license classes. This is one of several changes contained in a resolution released on April 28th by ANATEL. The resolution also grants hams the ability to operate on citizens' band 11 meter frequencies.”

“To me, the market has de-levered and de-grossed a fair bit amount, like so much so that shorting at these areas is a very tough place to make money when you see these types of moves and factor in on top of that. That volatility skew and put demand is still very high. So we've de-grossed tremendously. A lot of the long onlies, the trend followers, systematics, and the market is still very hedged.”

“Tonight at 9:00 PM ET, President Donald J. Trump delivers a critical prime-time address from the White House. Following weeks of intense combat operations under Operation Epic Fury, the President is expected to provide a definitive update on the status of the Iranian regime's military capabilities and the potential for a ceasefire.”

“Every week every week, it starts with a gigantic Gemini produced or or nano banana produced visual of scarcity and abundance. Everyone who's watched it knows. It's like get out of anything that is abundant and only be invested in things that are scarce. That's it.”

“It does feel like, we have the potential for double digit GDP numbers in the 2030s. Like, that's that seems not unrealistic to me. Not that that's gonna be uniform all around the world, but certainly, in large large parts of the world, that seems very, achievable, based on what I see. The risk here is that GDP, effectively, like, the GDP growth is a sort of capital capturing more capital at the at the expense of of humans. Like, that's the real risk.”

“You can use the app features to follow along the hourly prize drawings populated by the Dayton Hamvention Prize Committee and browse building and site maps so you can find exactly what you're looking for in all of that complex. Those going are also encouraged to tap on the My Profile icon in the app, add your name and call sign, email address, anything else you'd like to share with other guests because it generates a QR code on your event badge that you can then scan on the app.”

“Will takes us aboard the Wayback Machine to 1922, where we find despite several attempts, no successor to the outdated 1912 radio law had yet emerged. Now it could wait no longer since things had changed so radically with the rise of broadcasting. In early March 1922, Secretary of Commerce Herbert Hoover convened the first national radio conference in Washington.”

“The big problem with this from a legal perspective is these are mostly opinions about Donald Trump. What they would do is take videos of things he said about the election and say, well, this sure seems like the big lie. I also think it'll be dismissed well before that because these are opinions, and opinions are protected in terms of news coverage.”

“I guess these guys were lifers though. I mean, they spent most of their time there. They spent at least two weeks at a time and one week off. So they stayed at the base. I mean, these guys were hardcore. I had just come in on the project, you know? So, I don't know. I don't know what happened to them. I'd love to know. I suspect that Dennis Mariani, my supervisor, died.”

“You know what is so fascinating is like from an index basis, things not much happens, but underneath the hood, if you look on like a sectoral basis, everything happens and that's really where all the alphas generated. But you even notice from the like you said, the indexes are unchanged, but some of the hedge fund performance numbers came out and some of these multi-platform funds got absolutely rocked.”

“In the 1930s, there was a really big debate about, like, what's the right construct for the banking system and the financial system. And, there was a a proposal from a group of economists, called the Chicago Plan, and, the kind of ringleader was a Chicago economist. Actually, it might have been a Yale economist or Princeton at the time, but, Irving Fisher, who wrote a book called A Hundred Percent Money. And that idea was that full reserve money was essentially, you know, government obligation money. So you have kind of a full reserve, and you can only lend full reserve money.”

“All of our videos are strictly personal opinions. Please make sure to do your own research. Never take one person's opinion for financial guidance. There are multiple strategies and not all strategies fit all people. Our videos ARE NOT financial advice.”

“This Easter, only about a dozen priests were praying inside the Church of the Holy Sepulcher, where it's believed Jesus died and was resurrected. Auxiliary Bishop William Schomali says holy places without pilgrims is like a body without soul, and he urged politicians to choose the way of peace, forgiveness, and reconciliation.”

“The grant will allow Dlarc to continue curating and preserving historical content related to Ham Radio for an additional two years. The library includes a plethora of content from club newsletters to software to old printed call books that date back to the early 1900s. Dlarc has a want list, and if you own copies of any of the publications sought, please consider donating them for preservation.”

“The jury in the civil trial against concert giant Live Nation finished its first day of deliberations on Friday. 34 states have charged that the company and its ticketing arm, Ticketmaster, have driven up the cost of watching live music across the nation.”

“Yeah, I just want to say there's about 10% AI in the film, but there's 90% blender. And that's actually handmade CGI. So everything you see is all handmade. And even the de-aging of Bob Lazar, we scanned Bob. We went over to his house, scanned his face, took a process of de-aging him through that, then creating a digital model of Bob in different ages, and then placing him in the environment.”

“What AI is is the ability for a company to fire people and still have the ability to make growth. So it becomes at the expense of labor. ... QE is gonna be for companies that exist, an ability for them to get rid of people in the form of AI. So if they can replace every person with a bot, that's great.”

“Oil is a globally priced commodity, so even though we won't have a physical shortage here because we've got Canada for heavy oil and we produce our own, the reality is that the price is global and there's a real physical shortage. And so we don't escape that price impact, and that translates to what it costs a refiner to buy the crude and therefore what you pay for gasoline at the pump.”

“You're seeing the economists, the accountants have wandered into the room, and they said, we have a scarce resource here. Let's optimize it. Let's devote this compute to the people who can pay the most for it. You haven't lived till you've seen an 85% decline in an index. I think shooting Sora in the head is even more significant in terms of what it says about the strategic direction of the company.”

“It's amazing because you've told the same one for all these years. It's also not normal. Like, normally, when people lie, they get bored with the same lie and then they come up with another lie. And there's some other stories. Eventually, you catch them. There's some cockamamie new thing that they come up with. And it's the type of people that are that deceptive.”

“Kinsale operates in the PNC industry and this is a massive, mature industry. Within the PNC industry sits the excess and surplus market, which is much more dynamic and it's oftentimes referred to as the non-standard market or the specialty market. The excess and surplus market is unique in that it's a market that standard insurance companies won't insure.”

“Thousands gathered in front of St. Peter's Basilica for Mass where Pope Leo led his Easter message with a prayer, offering a reminder of faith and continuity for Christians around the world. The Pope also called for peace and urged the world not to grow numb to war and suffering.”

“People are leaving their jobs. The stock market in Mumbai, back then it was called Bombay, but the stock market in Mumbai, shut down. People were leaving the stock market. They're like, oh, we can make profits tomorrow. Let's go find this out. Word began to spread around the globe. Hey, Joe, remember when you left New Delhi? What a rube. The gods here are drinking milk.”

“Digital Assets are highly volatile and carry a considerable amount of risk. Only use exchanges for trading digital assets; we never keep our entire portfolio on an exchange, which is why we recommend tools like Arculus for your cold storage needs.”

“It really made a big difference when he showed me some things and, you know, walking down the corridor here and turn, oh, stop. Wait, there's another door there. I mean, it was like I was going back into the facility and really brought. I mean, actually seeing it again really brought some things back that I had completely forgotten about.”

“The other piece is that it's sort of designed with real money, as the foundation. So there's not like a volatile gas token. USDC is actually the default native token, which is now, under the law, essentially, like a legal form of electronic money. So you have real dollars as the way that people understand. And so to a company that's, like, doing this, it's like, I pay AWS credits. I understand how to budget for that, my treasury, my operations, my compliance, etcetera.”

“Hotter temperatures means less sea ice. And for emperor penguins, which rely on sea ice for breeding in his places to rest, it means fewer penguins are surviving. Twice in recent years, the ice has broken up early, causing thousands of chicks to drown in the frigid water. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature says emperor penguins are now considered to be endangered.”

“In this, her first Easter sermon since becoming spiritual leader of the world's Anglicans, Sarah Mullally pleaded for an end to, quote, the violence and destruction in the Middle East. She added, may all people of the region receive the peace, justice, and freedom they long for.”

“So, late 80s, you've essentially told the exact same story all these years. And then, within the last, you know, nine, ten years, we've started to get all these reports. There was the New York Times story. There was the GoFast video and the FLIR video and all these videos that show a craft that's moving the way you described this sport model moving.”

“The FCC plans to tighten its requirements for testing of electronic devices made in countries such as China before they can be sold to US consumers. The Commission will review an order this month that bans device testing conducted by labs that are owned or controlled directly by entities that pose national security risks. According to a statement by FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr, he identified China as one example of such a country.”

“There is, another investigation coming out soon that I've been made aware of. Finding Satoshi. Coinbase is involved. Jameson Lopf, I think, said it was actually a reasonable attempt, which in my book, Jameson is the barometer of whether a Satoshi discovery is legitimate or not.”

“The most compelling piece, I think, is that one of the citations in the white paper is this, paper that was it was the result of a conference that was held in Belgium or Luxembourg. And the conference proceedings, the written version was only made available in a couple universities in the region. And and, of course, Len, he studied in Belgium.”

“A staff wide email from the White House management office put Trump officials on notice over prediction market sites like Koushi and Polymarket. It said it's a criminal offense to use nonpublic information to make money on betting markets about federal policy, military strikes, and war. It comes as a number of suspiciously well timed bets have raised alarms, including 6 figure poly market bets on a ceasefire.”

“A US. Air Force officer who, along with another crew member, ejected from a jet shot down in Iran on Friday was rescued by US forces Sunday morning. President Trump announced the rescue on social media, calling it, quote, one of the most daring search and rescue operations in US history.”

“E&S companies like Kinsale tend to write most of their business in states that are more litigious, meaning that there are more lawsuits that tend to occur in these states. Now, even though the risks that they are taking on are perceived to be higher risk, the important thing is that they're pricing that risk appropriately. Although these types of policies might seem like they're higher risk, they can also bring in higher margins because they tend to attract less competition.”

“Following weeks of intense combat operations under Operation Epic Fury, the President is expected to provide a definitive update on the status of the Iranian regime's military capabilities. This address will outline exactly how the military has performed and what the next steps are for our forces in the region.”

“Oil prices aren't high enough for demand destruction, but they're high enough for inflation. You can make the argument, it's actually almost better for it to go higher. Then you get the demand destruction, like the central bank's gonna actually do something. We're stuck in the corridor of everybody's frozen.”

“I found the actual statistical analysis to be incredibly weak because the way you'd really do it is you'd have the corpus of all the Satoshi candidates and then all of Satoshi's work, and then you would just compare it systematically. You wouldn't say, well, let's assume it's this guy, and let's find the things that match.”

“I've said to people my view is that we'll look back ten years from now and the S&P 500 will probably be around the same level it is now. ... but right now the S&P 500 market cap is more than two times the size of the economy, a record going back all the way to the Great Depression. I'm not saying that's speculation. I'm saying that private sector has suffered dramatically.”

“A few examples can include insuring a construction company that's doing very dangerous work, ensuring a building in a wildfire prone area, a brand new business with no operating history, or maybe unusual liability exposure such as amusement parks, for example. Kinsale is able to step in, look at the situation and see if they can put together a policy that makes sense both for them and the insured.”

“The term comes from Mein Kampf, which was what Hitler wrote in prison during one of his imprisonments before he took power. The idea is this: a small lie is hard to pass by somebody, but a large lie, because it's so outlandish, people think someone wouldn't make that up. He must have a kernel of truth. And this is actually a strategy employed by Hitler during his rise to power.”

“Blockchains are operating systems, and they have compute engines. They have virtual machines, and you can write Turing complete code. You can write software that runs on these, but there's some really key attributes that make them different. So the the first is that the code is is sort of tamper resistant. The second is it's perfectly auditable. You can audit every single input and output of that machine, of that code in real time.”

“I'm very proud because, there there are tokenized, stocks that are out there, and the most, active tokenized stock today is not Tesla. It's it's not the S and P index. It's actually Circle. So that was cool to see. We also, you know, have seen this growth in, like, tokenized money markets. So basically, like, on chain treasury bills, we actually operate the largest tokenized treasury, product called USYC.”

“Prediction markets have taken off in the past few years, using the same legal loopholes as the crypto market to essentially claim they are a 'swap,' or 'futures market,' similar to that of the totally legal grain and pork belly markets, and less like the state-regulated sports gambling market.”

“The President is expected to provide a definitive update on the status of the Iranian regime's military capabilities and the potential for a ceasefire. This prime-time address will be the first major update the public has received since the operations began several weeks ago.”

“As this quantum thing gets closer, you're gonna wanna probably, you know, do something to preserve your coins so it don't get stolen by a quantum attacker. If you are alive, you definitely have an obligation and, this urgency to weigh in either recovery of coins or at a very minimum, just make your feelings known.”

“In that world, we need a different infrastructure for the financial intermediation layers. Why? Well, we don't have an infrastructure that can support that. We don't have an infrastructure that can, work globally, interoperably, instantly, that can be, programmed, through software layers by arbitrary pieces of software that doesn't exist. We need an infrastructure where the agents themselves can, dynamically create and spin up, different kind of financial endpoints themselves. We need transactions that can scale potentially into the, you know, billions or trillions of transactions.”

“The autonomous agents which I've been talking about how this is going to consume orders of magnitude more tokens and change our life. I'm excited to see more is coming and open claw was just this brief thing that woke us up to what Anthropic appears to be all in on. Truly autonomous agents running 24 seven, hopefully safely, hopefully not leaking all of our source code, but it's coming soon.”

“On the cybersecurity leak, it was noteworthy that Anthropic, quote unquote, blamed human error. We may be at the stage where we throw the humans under the bus, not the AI anymore. Which I think at some level is pretty terrifying. But and you know exactly what happened. You often see this where you're about to do a big announcement. You have your content management system. You stage all the assets, be it their fed press release.”

“After we get through the next CPI print in early May, it will be 3.6 or higher. So we're not far from four. And the following month, I think what rolls off is either a zero or a point one, which means all you'd need is the kick in from inflation, from plastics, from diesel. I mean, this country, anything shipped to you is on a truck.”

“He posted that everyone knows Black Lives Matter was a scam. There is some basis for this as some executives of the actual organization have been under investigation for misappropriation of funds, like people buying houses with money brought in from donations. But a lot of people are saying what he's doing by wearing this shirt is dangerous.”

“Most people are downloading these apps right now because of sports, but then there's all this other stuff, like mention markets where people bet on whether someone will or won't say something. We decided to bet on which words Trump would say in the speech, looking at probability odds for specific strikes.”

“Caden Booth bought a stopwatch and this device used for listening to bird sounds and hung out on the sidewalk outside of the stadium waiting for the rehearsal to start so he could time it. I thought I was gonna show up here, and there would be 500 people sitting outside; to me, I was like, this is just common sense.”

“And this guy had just had a dream that Lord Ganesh, the elephant headed god of wisdom in Hinduism, said, I want milk. He's the god of wisdom. I think you might have been able to say it with a couple more $5 words. It made it a little more like snazzy and he just didn't stare at the man. The whole dream was just this elephant headed god staring at the man going, milk, milk, milk, milk.”

“Vice president JD Vance is expected to arrive in Islamabad today at the head of a US delegation, which includes president Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and special envoy Steve Witkoff. They are to hold talks tomorrow seeking to shore up a cease fire, shaky over Israel and Hezbollah exchanging fire and Iran's choke hold over this trade of Hormuz.”

“We actually see it used, you know, from at the very smallest end, like someone who's paying, you know, 25¢ for a digital object in a digital game that's built on a blockchain. Or even now, we're starting to see, AI agents that are paying for, the output of essentially the AI tokens of another AI agent, and they're, you know, spending, again, just, you know, a dollar 50¢, 20¢, etcetera. So super tiny transactions at one end all the way to the largest electronic trading firms in the world that do huge amounts of of capital markets activity who are, you know, settling multi $100,000,000 transactions. And the powerful thing is it's all the same.”

“So Donald Trump, who is under assault from a lot of angles, has filed this lawsuit in district court and federal court in Fort Lauderdale, which he loves that forum. He is suing CNN where he is saying they've defamed him by focusing all of their news coverage on his efforts to push what has been called the big lie, challenging the results of the 2020 election.”

“Anything that was created on code in the digital economy has been getting killed. Salesforce.com, Adobe, all of these things which had moats around their businesses were quickly unwound. ... I think we're in the stage, the, I think, the most important stage for Bitcoin where it no longer is considered a software, a piece of of code. It is considered something that is scarce.”

“The faster we vibe code, the faster we ship, the more corners we cut in general on application level security. It happens. I mean, so many folks are accidentally uploading code to insecure GitHub's, to database, to super bases that are by default open. So this is this is accelerating our data, which is just open on the Internet. And you could say, but God, this shouldn't happen at the Anthropic level. And I'm sure someone will get will get scolded.”

“Kinsale Capital operates in the non-admitted market, which aren't as regulated as the admitted market. So since Kinsale is not as regulated as a traditional insurer, they have more flexibility in their business, so their rates and policy forms don't require prior state approval, and they can customize coverage for unique risks, and they can price policies more freely based on that risk.”

“If I use as a reference point, like, you know, I spent a long time building on the early Internet and the early nineties and the early web and, like, all this stuff all the way up until, like, 2001 for, like, you know, for me, it was, like, ten years. And it was still it was, like, awful still. Like, it just like kept grinding and it was like, how do we make this useful? And then you had, you know, a whole bunch of things happen that were in the background, like, you know, Wi Fi, broadband, you know, you finally got like usable, other Internet connected devices, and you could actually really start to do stuff. But it was, like, ten years in the desert or longer before you could even get there. And I kinda feel that way about the blockchain space.”

“What they were doing is they were taking spoonfuls of milk. So the smaller amount of milk, the easier it is to make mistakes. A gallon of milk disappearing is far harder to explain or hand wave than a teaspoon of milk. They would take milk and they would hold it to the mouth of the statue. And they would slightly turn the spoon. And then the milk would disappear.”

“Rory McIlroy has set a PGA Masters tournament record. After 36 holes, he holds a six stroke lead over Sam Burns and Patrick Reed, who were tied for second with two rounds left. McElroy is the defending champion.”

“I want to start with, you guessed it, Anthropic, unbelievable 28 day month of February, where they did 6 billion in revenue, which was more than Databricks has done in their entire lifetime. It was actually the accidental leak of Claude Mythos, essentially 3,000 unpublished assets leaked. It's a 10 trillion parameter model apparently, that is this next level step changing capabilities that they're not releasing because of how powerful it is.”