Operating earnings require adjustments for accurate economic valuation
“Where for the year, it looked like operating earnings declined by almost $3,000,000,000. No, they were actually up by 1,100,000,000, but the world reacted, nobody in the media got it right and the stock just started getting just beat up. So Greg comes in with an acknowledgment to where he and in consultation with Warren thinks fair value is, started buying the stock back. I wish they hadn't filed and told the world they were buying it because I doubt they're going to get that much bought because the stock jumped back up.”
Succession planning must address gradual cognitive decline risks
“We've got a plan in place to essentially, respectively, with a good friend of mine, merge our operations in the event that that I or he running his firm would depart suddenly. So he's somebody that that I'd be very comfortable having my family's capital with and my clients' capital with. So we've got that in place as well. But I think to your point about a slow cognitive decline, we talk about tulipomania.”
High margins and high multiples indicate future underperformance
“When you overlay high margins with high multiples, which is what you have at an extreme with those handful of tech businesses, which were properly rewarded for their economic success and they were properly rewarded with high multiples, I think you're at an inflection point and you could say it's an inflection point for the S and P five hundred, but it's probably an inflection point for the most richly valued of this large corner of the S and P five hundred.”
Market buybacks often enrich executives while offsetting dilution
“For twenty five years, it's grown by 1.8%, but you're essentially if 30% to 40% of what every company makes goes to retire shares, you have not shrunk the share count, who got rich? The executives. You could say in the case of the shareholder, those repurchases supported the stocks and that's why we're trading at 26 times earnings today and that's probably the case. But those were dollars that didn't go into reinvestment in property, plant and equipment or acquisitions.”
Berkshire remains a disciplined underwriter despite pricing pressures
“For thirteen years in a row, they ran insurance premiums down from $232,000,000 to $50,000,000 because insurance prices were not adequate. Berkshire does that. Nobody else does it that way. And they're in the process now of shrinking insurance premiums, both in reinsurance and in some of the property lines within the surplus and the primary group.”
Massive AI CapEx creates significant return on capital risks
“On $3,000,000,000,000 to make a 15% return on the capital that's spent, you need $450,000,000,000 in profit. The four big hyperscalers all have cash flow from operations at just over a $100,000,000,000 And I'm talking incremental profitability required from revenues that are now $30,000,000,000. So who knows who winds up winning if there can be a winner?”
Berkshire's intrinsic value grew 9.3 percent year-over-year
“I come up with when you just do a simple average of my four methods, a progression of 9.3% year over year, which gets you to a little over 1,200,000,000,000, almost 1 and a quarter trillion. My market cap would be intrinsic value and on a per share basis that went from the b shares a year ago were $5.22. I've got them at $5.70 per share now and the a shares are up to 855,396.”
Berkshire's intrinsic value grew 9.3 percent year-over-year
“I come up with when you just do a simple average of my four methods, a progression of 9.3% year over year, which gets you to a little over 1,200,000,000,000, almost 1 and a quarter trillion. My market cap would be intrinsic value and on a per share basis that went from the b shares a year ago were $5.22. I've got them at $5.70 per share now and the a shares are up to 855,396.”
Massive AI CapEx creates significant return on capital risks
“On $3,000,000,000,000 to make a 15% return on the capital that's spent, you need $450,000,000,000 in profit. The four big hyperscalers all have cash flow from operations at just over a $100,000,000,000 And I'm talking incremental profitability required from revenues that are now $30,000,000,000. So who knows who winds up winning if there can be a winner?”
Market buybacks often enrich executives while offsetting dilution
“For twenty five years, it's grown by 1.8%, but you're essentially if 30% to 40% of what every company makes goes to retire shares, you have not shrunk the share count, who got rich? The executives. You could say in the case of the shareholder, those repurchases supported the stocks and that's why we're trading at 26 times earnings today and that's probably the case. But those were dollars that didn't go into reinvestment in property, plant and equipment or acquisitions.”
Greg Abel proves a capable successor through deep involvement
“Greg has been running Berkshire effectively as its CEO since 2018 when he became vice chairman. And he's gotten his arms around all those businesses. He knows what he could handle. Warren has said the guy just lives, breathes. All he does is Berkshire. He's gotten his arms around this business and he's leaning on Adam who he has a lot of confidence in to be essentially the CEO just overseeing 32 of the businesses because Greg can't handle the direct reports from all those companies.”
Berkshire remains a disciplined underwriter despite pricing pressures
“For thirteen years in a row, they ran insurance premiums down from $232,000,000 to $50,000,000 because insurance prices were not adequate. Berkshire does that. Nobody else does it that way. And they're in the process now of shrinking insurance premiums, both in reinsurance and in some of the property lines within the surplus and the primary group.”
Greg Abel proves a capable successor through deep involvement
“Greg has been running Berkshire effectively as its CEO since 2018 when he became vice chairman. And he's gotten his arms around all those businesses. He knows what he could handle. Warren has said the guy just lives, breathes. All he does is Berkshire. He's gotten his arms around this business and he's leaning on Adam who he has a lot of confidence in to be essentially the CEO just overseeing 32 of the businesses because Greg can't handle the direct reports from all those companies.”
Succession planning must address gradual cognitive decline risks
“We've got a plan in place to essentially, respectively, with a good friend of mine, merge our operations in the event that that I or he running his firm would depart suddenly. So he's somebody that that I'd be very comfortable having my family's capital with and my clients' capital with. So we've got that in place as well. But I think to your point about a slow cognitive decline, we talk about tulipomania.”
Operating earnings require adjustments for accurate economic valuation
“Where for the year, it looked like operating earnings declined by almost $3,000,000,000. No, they were actually up by 1,100,000,000, but the world reacted, nobody in the media got it right and the stock just started getting just beat up. So Greg comes in with an acknowledgment to where he and in consultation with Warren thinks fair value is, started buying the stock back. I wish they hadn't filed and told the world they were buying it because I doubt they're going to get that much bought because the stock jumped back up.”
High margins and high multiples indicate future underperformance
“When you overlay high margins with high multiples, which is what you have at an extreme with those handful of tech businesses, which were properly rewarded for their economic success and they were properly rewarded with high multiples, I think you're at an inflection point and you could say it's an inflection point for the S and P five hundred, but it's probably an inflection point for the most richly valued of this large corner of the S and P five hundred.”
