Berkshire's intrinsic value grew 9.3 percent year-over-year
“I come up with when you just do a simple average of my four methods, a progression of 9.3% year over year, which gets you to a little over 1,200,000,000,000, almost 1 and a quarter trillion. My market cap would be intrinsic value and on a per share basis that went from the b shares a year ago were $5.22. I've got them at $5.70 per share now and the a shares are up to 855,396.”
CrowdStrike leverages buybacks to support struggling shares
“CrowdStrike is a great example of a company using their balance sheet to support the stock when sentiment is low. By increasing their buyback authorization, they are effectively putting a floor under the share price and signaling to investors that they have the cash flow to weather the current volatility and believe in their underlying business model.”
Berkshire remains a disciplined underwriter despite pricing pressures
“For thirteen years in a row, they ran insurance premiums down from $232,000,000 to $50,000,000 because insurance prices were not adequate. Berkshire does that. Nobody else does it that way. And they're in the process now of shrinking insurance premiums, both in reinsurance and in some of the property lines within the surplus and the primary group.”
AppLovin stock shows momentum despite high valuation
“AppLovin has been a monster performer lately, but you have to be careful chasing it at these levels. The growth is certainly there, but the valuation is starting to get stretched relative to historical norms, so investors need to look for a better entry point rather than buying at the top of a parabolic move.”
Greg Abel proves a capable successor through deep involvement
“Greg has been running Berkshire effectively as its CEO since 2018 when he became vice chairman. And he's gotten his arms around all those businesses. He knows what he could handle. Warren has said the guy just lives, breathes. All he does is Berkshire. He's gotten his arms around this business and he's leaning on Adam who he has a lot of confidence in to be essentially the CEO just overseeing 32 of the businesses because Greg can't handle the direct reports from all those companies.”
High margins and high multiples indicate future underperformance
“When you overlay high margins with high multiples, which is what you have at an extreme with those handful of tech businesses, which were properly rewarded for their economic success and they were properly rewarded with high multiples, I think you're at an inflection point and you could say it's an inflection point for the S and P five hundred, but it's probably an inflection point for the most richly valued of this large corner of the S and P five hundred.”
ICICI Bank provides exposure to Indian financial growth
“If you're looking for international exposure, ICICI Bank is a solid way to play the growth story in India. As that economy continues to modernize and the middle class expands, the banking sector is the primary beneficiary of increased credit demand and the move toward professional financial services.”
“We are officially kicking off our Third Annual InvestTalk Market Madness, which is our way of getting the community involved in analyzing these companies. You have until May 18th to get your bracket in for a chance to win that fifteen hundred dollar grand prize and test your market knowledge.”
Massive AI CapEx creates significant return on capital risks
“On $3,000,000,000,000 to make a 15% return on the capital that's spent, you need $450,000,000,000 in profit. The four big hyperscalers all have cash flow from operations at just over a $100,000,000,000 And I'm talking incremental profitability required from revenues that are now $30,000,000,000. So who knows who winds up winning if there can be a winner?”
“Roblox continues to grow its user base, but the question always comes back to monetization and whether they can ever justify their current market cap. It’s a classic high-multiple stock where any miss in guidance leads to a massive sell-off, so it requires a high risk tolerance and a long time horizon.”
“Sysco is your classic defensive play in the food distribution space. It’s not going to double overnight, but it provides a reliable dividend and usually holds up much better than the broader market when consumer spending starts to tighten up or when inflation remains a sticky issue for the economy.”
Market buybacks often enrich executives while offsetting dilution
“For twenty five years, it's grown by 1.8%, but you're essentially if 30% to 40% of what every company makes goes to retire shares, you have not shrunk the share count, who got rich? The executives. You could say in the case of the shareholder, those repurchases supported the stocks and that's why we're trading at 26 times earnings today and that's probably the case. But those were dollars that didn't go into reinvestment in property, plant and equipment or acquisitions.”
Market buybacks often enrich executives while offsetting dilution
“For twenty five years, it's grown by 1.8%, but you're essentially if 30% to 40% of what every company makes goes to retire shares, you have not shrunk the share count, who got rich? The executives. You could say in the case of the shareholder, those repurchases supported the stocks and that's why we're trading at 26 times earnings today and that's probably the case. But those were dollars that didn't go into reinvestment in property, plant and equipment or acquisitions.”
Succession planning must address gradual cognitive decline risks
“We've got a plan in place to essentially, respectively, with a good friend of mine, merge our operations in the event that that I or he running his firm would depart suddenly. So he's somebody that that I'd be very comfortable having my family's capital with and my clients' capital with. So we've got that in place as well. But I think to your point about a slow cognitive decline, we talk about tulipomania.”
Berkshire remains a disciplined underwriter despite pricing pressures
“For thirteen years in a row, they ran insurance premiums down from $232,000,000 to $50,000,000 because insurance prices were not adequate. Berkshire does that. Nobody else does it that way. And they're in the process now of shrinking insurance premiums, both in reinsurance and in some of the property lines within the surplus and the primary group.”
Berkshire's intrinsic value grew 9.3 percent year-over-year
“I come up with when you just do a simple average of my four methods, a progression of 9.3% year over year, which gets you to a little over 1,200,000,000,000, almost 1 and a quarter trillion. My market cap would be intrinsic value and on a per share basis that went from the b shares a year ago were $5.22. I've got them at $5.70 per share now and the a shares are up to 855,396.”
High margins and high multiples indicate future underperformance
“When you overlay high margins with high multiples, which is what you have at an extreme with those handful of tech businesses, which were properly rewarded for their economic success and they were properly rewarded with high multiples, I think you're at an inflection point and you could say it's an inflection point for the S and P five hundred, but it's probably an inflection point for the most richly valued of this large corner of the S and P five hundred.”
Operating earnings require adjustments for accurate economic valuation
“Where for the year, it looked like operating earnings declined by almost $3,000,000,000. No, they were actually up by 1,100,000,000, but the world reacted, nobody in the media got it right and the stock just started getting just beat up. So Greg comes in with an acknowledgment to where he and in consultation with Warren thinks fair value is, started buying the stock back. I wish they hadn't filed and told the world they were buying it because I doubt they're going to get that much bought because the stock jumped back up.”
Buybacks signal management confidence during market volatility
“When you see management stepping in to buy their own stock, especially after a significant pullback, it’s a signal that they believe the market has overreacted to short-term headwinds. It doesn't mean the stock has bottomed instantly, but it shows they view the current price as a discount to long-term intrinsic value and have the capital to support that conviction.”
Operating earnings require adjustments for accurate economic valuation
“Where for the year, it looked like operating earnings declined by almost $3,000,000,000. No, they were actually up by 1,100,000,000, but the world reacted, nobody in the media got it right and the stock just started getting just beat up. So Greg comes in with an acknowledgment to where he and in consultation with Warren thinks fair value is, started buying the stock back. I wish they hadn't filed and told the world they were buying it because I doubt they're going to get that much bought because the stock jumped back up.”
Greg Abel proves a capable successor through deep involvement
“Greg has been running Berkshire effectively as its CEO since 2018 when he became vice chairman. And he's gotten his arms around all those businesses. He knows what he could handle. Warren has said the guy just lives, breathes. All he does is Berkshire. He's gotten his arms around this business and he's leaning on Adam who he has a lot of confidence in to be essentially the CEO just overseeing 32 of the businesses because Greg can't handle the direct reports from all those companies.”
Massive AI CapEx creates significant return on capital risks
“On $3,000,000,000,000 to make a 15% return on the capital that's spent, you need $450,000,000,000 in profit. The four big hyperscalers all have cash flow from operations at just over a $100,000,000,000 And I'm talking incremental profitability required from revenues that are now $30,000,000,000. So who knows who winds up winning if there can be a winner?”
Succession planning must address gradual cognitive decline risks
“We've got a plan in place to essentially, respectively, with a good friend of mine, merge our operations in the event that that I or he running his firm would depart suddenly. So he's somebody that that I'd be very comfortable having my family's capital with and my clients' capital with. So we've got that in place as well. But I think to your point about a slow cognitive decline, we talk about tulipomania.”
Midstream energy MLPs provide attractive yield stability
“Midstream assets like Hess Midstream and MPLX are really about the yield and the consistency of the cash flows. These aren't high-growth tech stocks, but in an environment where interest rates are a concern, that steady distribution and fee-based income can provide a lot of portfolio stability for income-focused investors.”