TRACK FED

“These new standards represent a significant step in reducing toxic industrial emissions.”

“Energy is really the driver here; if you have a supply shock in oil, that's something the Fed can't really control but has to react to.”

“We know that there's still a chokehold on the Straits of Hormuz, but yet Bitcoin remains resilient alongside many other markets. I don't have the brainpower to unpack this, but luckily I have amazing guests that do.”

“The bond market has generally been labeled the intelligent market because it just trades on macro data and big fiscal data. It doesn't get involved in AI narratives and things like that. And so generally the bond market has the reputation of being the intelligent market. And so it's where the macro traders tend to focus. And that has been signaling squeeze coming up. I mean, yields for the 10-year are up at 4.23%, 4.3%.”

“There is a clear and urgent need for better safety oversight in manufacturing.”

“The latest data suggests that inflation is staying higher for longer than anticipated.”

“But what moves the price always is the last trade and chances are the last trade is from someone who sees it as a risk asset. So it will continue to behave as one. And when the stock market's going down, you sell what you can. You raise cash and ask questions later.”

“I would not be surprised to see an operation twist type thing and a little bit even more coordination with Treasury Department to see where it goes. I, for one, I'd be happy if we had less kind of information from the Fed. I feel like forward guidance is one of those things. The first few times you do it, it has a real strong impact.”

“I don't think it matters at all, to be honest. And as for him getting it, I've seen other investment portfolios similar very much as spray and pray. You don't necessarily get it. But listen, one of these will work out. So I'll just invest in, you know, the top 30 or whatever names happen to take my fancy. It's that's a risk portfolio, and that's often how they work.”

“The dollar's long-term slide continues — now just 46% of global FX and gold reserves, a 26-year low — even as M2 keeps expanding at 4.8% YoY, and central bank gold holdings have officially eclipsed US Treasury holdings for the first time since '96. That's pushing oil toward $100/barrel and forcing tanker traffic into a full reroute away from the Gulf, which benefits US energy exports but hammers Japan, South Korea, and India hardest.”

“Major supporters of California representative Eric Swalwell's bid for governor are now withholding that support. The move comes following allegations that he sexually assaulted a woman twice, including once when she worked for him.”

“The iBit ETF has options. And then this is a very, very big deal, not just for investors who wanna be able to hedge their positions, their long positions. I bet it's just much easier and cheaper to do that in options.”

“The WLFI vs. Justin Sun feud is turning into a full legal brawl over a $75M loan dispute, backdoor token blacklisting, and accusations flying both ways — exactly the kind of circus that undermines crypto's push for institutional credibility. This adds to the geopolitical weight already slowing markets after the Islamabad peace talks collapsed, and Iran's Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed following the new naval blockade.”

“Gasoline prices have jumped sharply since the US and Israel launched their war against Iran. That's expected to push the annual inflation rate back above 3 percent when the price index for March is released on Friday. Core inflation, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, is also expected to be higher in March than it was in February.”

“I think there's a lot of leverage in the market, but also there's foreign money coming in, perhaps not so much into the treasury market. Oh yeah, there is as well. Not on the private side, certainly because the rest of the world is kind of messed up as well. But there's a lot of leverage.”

“Energy markets are reacting to the increased risk of supply disruptions worldwide.”

“Diplomats from both sides have left Cairo without reaching a definitive agreement.”

“Vice president JD Vance led The US delegation and says no agreement was reached. He says a major roadblock was Iran not agreeing to end their nuclear weapons program. In the Middle East, The US says two warships have passed through the hotly contested Strait Of Hormuz.”

“They are in a position where they might have to look through some of this inflation, but that risks losing credibility with the markets.”

“Victor, Christina, and Jeremy, we are we are bonded forever, and no one down here is ever gonna know what the four of us just went through. And it was the most special thing that will ever happen in my life.”

“Favorable wind conditions are finally helping our ground crews gain the upper hand.”

“The defense department says two navy guided missile destroyers passed through the Strait Of Hormuz as the critical water passageway has become a key landmark in the ongoing conflict. US central command said that The US forces had begun setting conditions to clear Iranian sea mines planted throughout the waterway.”

“If we get a little bit of a drawdown in the stock market, I expect this year, I hopefully expect Tether to be the number two and eventually number one. That's the key thing about them, understand the technology. It's the ability to transmit, transmore and transact dollars via stable coins overall, and why take the extra risk in Bitcoin when you don't have to anymore?”

“If we pass the Clarity Act, it's bullish for all of crypto, but it's more bullish for DeFi and alt coins than it is for Bitcoin. And Senator Tom Tillis says we could solve some of the disputes this week. So non-zero-percent chance, Clarity Act is going to get some serious momentum. That is going to be not great for Bitcoin dominance.”

“US and Israeli forces have rescued a US. Air Force officer nearly two days after his plane was shot down in a mountainous region of Iran. President Trump celebrated the news and also issued a new threat. NPR's Marlaiasson reports. Trump said the rescued officer sustained injuries, but quote, he will be just fine. This was the first time Iran has shot down a US fighter jet since the war started.”

“The championship game drew the largest audience in the history of college athletics.”

“Israel is now focusing on targeting Iran's steel and petrochemical industries, which are important for Iran's economy and military. Prime Minister Netanyahu said in a video statement that Israel's military strikes in Iran have destroyed the majority of Iran's capabilities to manufacture steel. And Saturday, Israel said it bombed a petrochemical complex needed for manufacturing missiles.”

“Warsh is probably a shoo-in, basically, she didn't use that word, but somewhat done. Senator Tillis has dropped his opposition. Will Powell stay on? She doesn't think so. Right off to the sunset, his news conference, he thinks, will be somewhat nostalgic and point out inflation expectations are firmly anchored, yet we have strong economic growth and might even mention things about independence of the Fed, so that's gonna be important.”

“I pay more attention to Brent because that represents oil on the move, oil actually on the ocean. And it's up at a 106 and hitting higher today. That's really an uncomfortable area for it to be in.”

“This historical metric looks at a previous all-time high. When it breaks the previous all-time high, how long does it take us to hit a low? And so this is the Pico bottom right here. And you can see we broke it right there. You can, you know, maybe a wick there, but basically 22 months later, 22 months later, that was a low.”

“Minnesota sued the Trump administration in March, accusing it of withholding evidence in the shootings. Anytime law enforcement takes the life of a community member, it's really important that there be a thorough and complete investigation.”

“To me, that's the others chart. This looks at every crypto except the top 10. In my opinion, Bitcoin dominance is slowly getting skewed. It's becoming less and less accurate. The reason why, USDC, USDT. You do the others chart, it excludes USDC and USDT because it has everything outside of the top 10. This to me is a better bellwether for altcoins.”

“Bitcoin keeps running into a wall of selling above $70K — roughly $20M/hour in profit-taking — and now that wall has geopolitical weight behind it after the Islamabad peace talks collapsed, Iran's Strait of Hormuz stays effectively closed, and Trump ordered a naval blockade of Iranian ports starting this morning. That's pushing oil toward $100/barrel and forcing tanker traffic into a full reroute away from the Gulf.”

“He has often talked about how he just doesn't think the Fed should be talking to the public so much. He has talked about getting rid of forward guidance. This may well be the last FOMC press conference we ever get the privilege of witnessing.”

“The Federal Reserve says President Trump's tariffs have contributed to upward pressure on the price of imported goods. Stubborn inflation is making the central bank cautious about cutting interest rates. The Fed's likely to feel less pressure to lower borrowing costs after Friday's jobs report. It showed US employers added 178,000 jobs in March as the unemployment rate dipped to 4.3%.”

“iBit ETF has options. And this is a very, very big deal, not just for investors who want to be able to hedge their positions, their long positions on iBit. It's just much easier and cheaper to do that in options. You can get much more sophisticated strategies with the options than you can on just plain old futures. It's also market makers.”

“It's almost every week, the number of people getting sucked in to living paycheck to paycheck and feeling stretched with what they thought was a comfortable lifestyle a year or two keeps increasing. I think that's the pressure. It's people, I think when you were scrolling through earlier, you saw some headline, people making 500K or living paycheck to paycheck.”

“The central bank indicated that it needs more evidence before cutting interest rates.”

“And then I point out the key theme is, again, drawing your attention to the bottom of this chart, we have I overlays gold volatility overlay with S and P 500 balance. It's just never been that wide. It's never stays that way. It almost almost leads the way.”

“You do have some issuers testing public tokens on public blockchains, but most of it is going on permission blockchains. And that's, to be honest, where it's going to be. Not because I think it should be. I don't think it should be. I think public blockchains are a better marketplace. But because it's what institutions will be comfortable with, it's because it's what their lawyers will let them do and their compliance compartments will sign off on.”

“If those December contracts move over 100, the world is a very different place than it is right now. And that will cause revaluation of various assets. And that will cause, certainly in our administration, doing everything they can to print money. The truth is with AI and with everything going on in the economy and with oil prices going up, it actually cuts economic growth. It cuts the aggregate demand.”

“President Trump also issued a profane threat to Iran on Easter Sunday morning. He said starting Tuesday, the US will bomb power plants and bridges if Iran doesn't open the Strait of Hormuz. The president has issued a series of contradictory statements on the Strait, saying that it would open naturally when the war ends, or that European countries should open the Strait themselves.”

“I think the mythos risk is very overlooked. Going back to what you were saying, I totally agree with you that this is going to hurt the DeFi story. It's not going to hurt the tokenization story at all, because to be honest, that's not really on DeFi. You do have some issuers testing public tokens on public blockchains, but most of it is going on permission blockchains.”

“Small caps are the studs. They're resuming their outperformance for its large caps. His quote is the bottom line, the small caps have relative strength and valuation advantage over the large caps. S&P 500 earnings are running 13.7 percent above year ago levels. He says that's a bit above expectation, but he's not really so impressed.”

“Unfortunately, Europe doesn't have the political will that the United States has to actually fix some of these issues and so on. I don't think anything is going to get fixed there. We're very much up against the rock and the hard place when it comes to China as well. Half of the EU members want to make friends with China and become closer, or the other half see China as the baddies that want to flood our market with cheap goods.”

“There is strong, strong resistance at 60%. You can see right here, we are knocking all against it. And I can throw down a horizontal line. So we can see a little more clearly, couldn't pass this range. And so there's a decent odds that we will reject from this range. You see, we try to pass it there.”

“The Bitcoin dominance index is this morning reached its highest point since I think November of last year. So what we're seeing is in part new money coming into the market, and Bitcoin is the obvious on ramp, it's tentative still. But I think we're also seeing some rotation out of other crypto assets into the safety of Bitcoin.”

“Anna Wong came out and pointed out, the the next FOMC meeting on Wednesday will be Powell's last. She did point out, Walsh is probably a shoo in. Basically, she didn't use that word, but somewhat done. Mister, senator Tillis has dropped his opposition.”

“The Bitcoin move is curious and does have many of us, myself included, scratching our heads with a little bit of tentative optimism. It starts to feel like there's spot accumulation. It's tentative. This is not the frothy risk asset narrative that we're accustomed to seeing in Bitcoin, and it could have to do with the hedge against crazy from those that actually take time to understand Bitcoin. For those that do so tend to buy the hedge against crazy narrative, I count myself in that particular bucket, which is why it tends to outperform when things are crazy.”

“I expect this year, I fully expect, Tether to be the number two and eventually number one. That's the key thing about them. Understand the technology. It's the ability to transmit, transport, and transact dollars via stablecoins overall, and why take the extra risk in Bitcoin when you, you know, don't have to anymore?”

“We are seeing a regime shift in how liquidity is provisioned, and that usually means a lot more volatility for risk assets.”

“The legislation fell short of the votes needed to move forward in the Senate today.”

“Unfortunately, Europe doesn't have the political will that The United States has to actually fix some of these issues and so important. I don't think anything's gonna get fixed there. We're very much up against the rock and the hard place when it comes to China as well.”

“Another reason we might see dominance tick higher, high federal rates. We might see high Fed rates. A lot of prediction markets are saying, you know, that the Fed is going to increase rates. Not typically good for altcoins. Typically, you know, you want to be a little bit less risky in that environment. However, the but, but Trump wants lower rates.”

“This is a historic moment as we implement the first comprehensive AI laws.”

“Our political system in the United States is broken. I mean, it's not just that people think Congress are a bunch of parasitic jackals, which is true, by the way... But it's actually worse than that. It's just completely dysfunctional. That is a large part of this. I mean, if we knew we were going to have a new Federal Reserve Chair in May, which you would think would be known, I think markets would be very different.”