MONITOR OIL SHOCK

“The market is pricing, this drags out for a little while. It ultimately gets resolved in a kind of negative-ish but not horrible way where oil starts flowing again. And geopolitics is between the US and China, and we don't care. And everyone just kind of retreats into their bubble of not much has changed, right? That's what the market is pricing. That's where the malaise is coming from.”

“Volcker had debt to GDP floating between 25% and 32% or something. Some would argue we're at 130%, right? It's not the same environment. He could hike to 20% without crushing the economy. What he did was he starved it. People were borrowing to spend. He starved it. People, investment was off the charts. And unions were basically demanding crazy pay raises. And unions mattered a lot more back then than they do.”

“I would not be surprised to see an operation twist type thing and a little bit even more coordination with Treasury Department to see where it goes. I, for one, I'd be happy if we had less kind of information from the Fed. I feel like forward guidance is one of those things. The first few times you do it, it has a real strong impact.”

“If we get a little bit of a drawdown in the stock market, I expect this year, I hopefully expect Tether to be the number two and eventually number one. That's the key thing about them, understand the technology. It's the ability to transmit, transmore and transact dollars via stable coins overall, and why take the extra risk in Bitcoin when you don't have to anymore?”

“Trump comes out and basically repeats his normal talking points. He more or less quoted truth social. And the markets are like, holy fuck, he doesn't know what's going to happen. Remember, everyone in the market, in the media market, is very negative on Trump. And so, it's just that's true. I mean, look, the mass media is against him, thinks that this is going to be a disaster.”

“It's almost every week, the number of people getting sucked in to living paycheck to paycheck and feeling stretched with what they thought was a comfortable lifestyle a year or two keeps increasing. I think that's the pressure. It's people, I think when you were scrolling through earlier, you saw some headline, people making 500K or living paycheck to paycheck.”

“We know that there's still a chokehold on the Straits of Hormuz, but yet Bitcoin remains resilient alongside many other markets. I don't have the brainpower to unpack this, but luckily I have amazing guests that do.”

“Small caps are the studs. They're resuming their outperformance for its large caps. His quote is the bottom line, the small caps have relative strength and valuation advantage over the large caps. S&P 500 earnings are running 13.7 percent above year ago levels. He says that's a bit above expectation, but he's not really so impressed.”

“iBit ETF has options. And this is a very, very big deal, not just for investors who want to be able to hedge their positions, their long positions on iBit. It's just much easier and cheaper to do that in options. You can get much more sophisticated strategies with the options than you can on just plain old futures. It's also market makers.”

“Warsh is probably a shoo-in, basically, she didn't use that word, but somewhat done. Senator Tillis has dropped his opposition. Will Powell stay on? She doesn't think so. Right off to the sunset, his news conference, he thinks, will be somewhat nostalgic and point out inflation expectations are firmly anchored, yet we have strong economic growth and might even mention things about independence of the Fed, so that's gonna be important.”

“Unfortunately, Europe doesn't have the political will that the United States has to actually fix some of these issues and so on. I don't think anything is going to get fixed there. We're very much up against the rock and the hard place when it comes to China as well. Half of the EU members want to make friends with China and become closer, or the other half see China as the baddies that want to flood our market with cheap goods.”

“And silver is interesting because silver and Bitcoin are almost been perfectly correlated recently. I don't know if you noticed that. Silver is down 7% today. It's not surprising. It's become the Nuvo Industrial Medal. And so the fact that silver and Bitcoin are new, there's nothing Bitcoin centric about what's happening today.”

“The only things that we know for sure are that if oil goes up and he loses control of it, it goes towards 150 or 200, it will trigger a demand shock. It's already doing it. Airplanes flying, prices have just gone way up. I'm going on a trip in a couple of weeks, we were going to meet somebody and they said, no, forget it. The plane tickets are way too expensive to go. So you're going to see a big demand shock about that.”