RESEARCH ALPHA

“Prediction markets have taken off in the past few years, using the same legal loopholes as the crypto market to essentially claim they are a 'swap,' or 'futures market,' similar to that of the totally legal grain and pork belly markets, and less like the state-regulated sports gambling market.”

“Caden Booth bought a stopwatch and this device used for listening to bird sounds and hung out on the sidewalk outside of the stadium waiting for the rehearsal to start so he could time it. I thought I was gonna show up here, and there would be 500 people sitting outside; to me, I was like, this is just common sense.”

“These prediction market companies exist because they’ve convinced regulators that they’re also great for the rest of us. They're adding new knowledge to the world, making us more informed about the future by providing a clearer picture of what people actually expect to happen.”

“The app is very brightly colored and super engaging. There's charts all over the place, and you kinda can't stop looking at the thing. You can literally see trades just flowing all over the screen in real time, and it feels like being in an arcade.”

“Most people are downloading these apps right now because of sports, but then there's all this other stuff, like mention markets where people bet on whether someone will or won't say something. We decided to bet on which words Trump would say in the speech, looking at probability odds for specific strikes.”