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Bitcoin cycle lows are projected for late 2026 - following historical four-year patterns, the market is likely to hit a cycle bottom in September or October before a long-term recovery toward 2029.
“Somewhere between probably September or October of 2026, we should see an all-time low for this cycle, not an all-time low over at all.”
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Institutional ETFs failed to trigger an altcoin season due to zero liquidity - while ETFs drove early Bitcoin interest, high interest rates and a lack of new global cash flow left retail-driven altcoins without the necessary momentum to rally.
“Looking back now on the analytics on 2025, there's no liquidity really in the market to pump all this. And that, with tariffs, with a lot of uncertainty... no liquidity, I think, was the big disappointment of this last cycle.”
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The Senate Banking Committee remains the primary hurdle for crypto regulation - the Clarity Act is currently stalled by banking interests and opposition from Senator Elizabeth Warren, delaying the institutional framework required for massive capital entry.
“The House passed it last July 2025... But there's a Clarity Act B, which is the Banking Committee. And the bankers have dug in their heels.”
MONITOR GLOBAL LIQUIDITY
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“Looking back now on the analytics on 2025, there's no liquidity really in the market to pump all this. And that, with tariffs, with a lot of uncertainty... no liquidity, I think, was the big disappointment of this last cycle.”
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Middle East tensions are the primary driver of macro volatility - supply chain disruptions and geopolitical risks in the energy sector are creating a floor for inflation that the Fed cannot easily control.
“Energy is really the driver here; if you have a supply shock in oil, that's something the Fed can't really control but has to react to.”
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The Federal Reserve is caught in a policy trap - central bankers face a lose-lose scenario where they cannot cut rates into a supply-side energy shock without risking an inflation spiral, yet keeping rates high threatens financial stability.
“They are in a position where they might have to look through some of this inflation, but that risks losing credibility with the markets.”
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Structural liquidity constraints are capping risk assets - the combination of Quantitative Tightening and a regime shift in banking means there is no longer a 'wall of money' available to drive markets significantly higher.
“We are seeing a regime shift in how liquidity is provisioned, and that usually means a lot more volatility for risk assets.”
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