High oil prices redistribute wealth to US producers
βDespite the fact, okay, so think about the cost of production for oil have not gone up in the United States. They can still extract a barrel of oil for about the same price as they could five weeks ago. The difference is they're now getting 40% more per barrel. That is money that goes into the pockets of shareholders of US companies.β
βMy prediction is the following, that the biggest IPO in history will be SpaceX. It'll get out. The best performing IPO will be Anthropic. I've never seen, that company has more momentum right now than any company.β
SpaceX's sixty billion dollar deal is likely valuation theater
βThis number just feels like such bullshit to me. First off, nobody's cashing a check for $60 billion here. I'd love to see the deal terms, but it's something along the lines of, if we go public, you're going to get, and you're here for one, two, three, four years, you'll get 0.5, one, two, and 3 percent options on 3 percent of the company, and at a $2 trillion market cap, that's $60 billion.β
Tim Cook is history's most successful corporate successor
βHe is the most successful successor in history. You weren't around or you weren't of professional age when Jobs died, but what happened, there was this weird shift in our society where we transitioned from the idolatry of athletes and government leaders and actors to innovators.β
Markets ignore war due to tech-heavy economy shift
βThe world has become, we're no longer a fossil fuels economy. It makes a difference, but this is a technology and a services economy now. And these companies are doing really well. And also to be fair, the earnings have been really strong across these companies.β
Great CEOs demonstrate excellence in a core function
βThe first is they demonstrate excellence. They are someone who came up through the ranks and they were just outstanding at what they did and they understand the business. So Tim Cook is arguably the best supply chain person in the world.β
βThey put in place very definitive metrics for people, they have honest and open conversations, because the fastest way to just really diminish morale is to let mediocre performers survive and keep them in your company. Everybody in a company, they don't need to like each other, but they need to be able to look left and look right and go, okay, I get it. I get why they're here.β
βI don't think OpenAI gets out. I think that the numbers are so stark right now for OpenAI, and it's going to be so overshadowed by the upward trajectory of Anthropic, I think they're going to come up with a jazz hands reason for why they're delaying the IPO.β