Two Months In: Why Markets Stopped Caring About Iran

“I think long term, that it's just impossible to believe this is not gonna have some sort of a pretty serious economic impact. But when the majority of the S and P is is fueled by companies and services and tech, whether it's JPMorgan or Microsoft, those companies don't seem to be I mean, in many ways, those companies gonna benefit from this. I mean, there was talk of data centers being bombed, but not really. The tariffs don't affect them.”

“The interesting one is Israel's market is up, 9%. And I think what people have, I think if you try and read into it, the market has basically decided that that Israel is the new superpower, is the superpower, the definitive superpower in The Middle East and its tech sector. I mean, I I think the market is betting that their technological, excellence, as demonstrated during the war if you look at many of the a lot of people would argue who argue for military spending that the spillover effect is actually accretive.”

“Well, he's first ballot hall of fame for business. He is the most successful successor in history. And you weren't around or you weren't of professional age when Jobs died. But what happened, there was this weird shift in our society where we transitioned from the idolatry of athletes and government leaders and actors to innovators, and that is because of it, I think I think as as attendance religious institutions went down, we still wanted kinda godlike answers.”

“First off, they demonstrate excellence. They are someone who came up through the ranks, and they were just outstanding of what they did, and they understand the business. So Tim Cook is arguably the best supply chain person in the world. A A guy like David Solomon had a reputation for being a great trader. I think Jamie Dimon was a great investment banker, a wealth management guy. These guys are just, you know, they're just very they they are better at a component of their business than almost anyone.”

“The thing that struck me about the deal and its announcement is that, you know, that saying, statisticians lie and liars use statistics. This number just feels like such bullshit to me. First off, nobody's cashing a check for $60,000,000,000 here. I'd love to see the deal terms, but if it's something along the lines of, if we go public, you're gonna get and you're here for one, two, three, four years, you'll get point five, one, 3% options on 3% of the company and at a $2,000,000,000,000 market cap, that's 60,000,000,000.”

“My prediction is the following that the biggest IPO in history will be SpaceX. It'll get out. The best performing IPO will be anthropic. I've never seen that company has more momentum right now than any company, and this is the big prediction. I don't think OpenAI gets out. I think that the numbers are so stark right now for OpenAI that and they're it's gonna be so overshadowed by the upward trajectory of Anthropic. I think they're gonna come up with a jazz hands reason for why they're delaying the IPO.”

“I don't think OpenAI gets out. I think that the numbers are so stark right now for OpenAI that and they're it's gonna be so overshadowed by the upward trajectory of Anthropic. I think they're gonna come up with a jazz hands reason for why they're delaying the IPO. Yeah. I think that's gonna be really interesting. And I think the other thing to be to keep an eye on and the big moment is gonna be when these companies release their s one filings to the public.”

“My takeaway is nothing's changed. Cease fire, no ceasefire. Blockade, no blockade. Seen this movie before. They said Iraq would be six weeks. It was eight years. They said Afghanistan would be $200,000,000,000. It was $2,000,000,000,000. Trump just requested 1 and a half trillion dollar defense budget for next year up from 900,000,000,000. I mean, I think all the signals are clear that this war isn't gonna end anytime soon. So I think it's gonna continue to 2027.”