Stocks Rip to Record Highs, Leaving War in the Dust

Key Takeaways

• •

  Markets have disassociated from general public prosperity

  “I've said for a long time, I think the NASDAQ and the Dow are two of the worst metrics or most unhealthy metrics ever invented because they give the illusion that people are doing well. And it really is, it's a proxy for earnings and a proxy for the wealth of the top 10%. Mostly what I think this is about is that the markets have disassociated from the majority of people's well-being and their prosperity.”

• •

  Cycle times between geopolitical fear and buying are compressing

  “If you look at the last three exogenous events in America, basically there was a dip, and then the markets ripped back the following year. I think what's happening is the cycle time between fear and uncertainty around a war and the opportunity to buy is compressing, and now people are like, let's move to the part of the program where we make money.”

• •

  High-income earners are insensitive to surging gas prices

  “If gas prices go up, yes, it might have some impact on lower-income consumers, and we can get to that because it is very interesting. But ultimately, high earners are completely price insensitive. It doesn't matter to them. They drive consumer spending. Same thing with big companies, same thing with tech companies, they're going to be fine.”

• •

  Investors are experiencing fatigue from geopolitical conflict timelines

  “I wonder if there's also been a little bit of what I would call the timeline fatigue, where we thought we understood what the story of this war was. And there were all of these different plot points. We strike Iran, we kill the supreme leader, but then the son is appointed. Then Trump says that we've had productive talks and we think that it's going to be resolved.”

• •

  Capital is rotating from energy back into tech

  “Since we hit the bottom from the Iran war, so that was March 30th, that was the market bottom thus far, it's been a very different story. It's actually reversed. Energy has fallen, it's down 9% since the bottom. And the winners have been financials up 11%, communication services up 18%, and tech up 17%.”

Episode Description

Scott Galloway and Ed Elson discuss why markets are so bullish right now, even with ongoing uncertainty in Iran. Scott argues it’s a byproduct of rising income inequality, while Ed points to “timeline fatigue” as investors tune out the risks from the war. They also dive into the growing backlash against AI, why public sentiment is turning negative, and what it means for Big Tech companies and their long-term outlook. Finally, they revisit their top big tech stock pick for the year, laying out why they remain bullish and what could drive the stock higher from here. Subscribe to the Prof G Markets Youtube Channel  Subscribe to the Prof G Markets newsletter  Order "Notes on Being a Man," out now Note: We may earn revenue from some of the links we provide. Follow the podcast across socials @profgmarkets Follow Scott on Instagram Follow Ed on Instagram, X and Substack Send us your questions or comments by emailing Markets@profgmedia.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices