EXPECT RECESSION

“There is something to be remarked on with the apparently, I read this morning or yesterday, the ASX is almost back to its pre-war highs, pre-Ram war this is. And you're saying the US market is already back to there and above that level. And it's kinda, I think it's both justifiable and hard to justify at the same time.”

“Sentiment is everything in the short run. Well, I'd actually say no, sentiment is everything, full stop, period, right? It's just like sometimes that sentiment is more objectively informed and more centered, more fundamental kind of factors, but it's vibes all the way down, right? At the end of the day, that's all the market is, is some people that have a thing, and there's other people that want the thing, and then they bid and offer prices until consensus is reached.”

“You can't take out 20 percent of the ability to create commerce through oil and not have a recession. If it stopped, if it stopped now, and not restarted, we end up in recession. And that's just kind of, the power is kind of mathematically factual as you get. You can't make and do the things we do without having a decline in economic growth from a couple of percent to something less than zero.”

“Rough numbers, numbers suck on podcasts, and audio formats in general, but 67 odd bucks a barrel before the war. It gets to about 117. Now, yesterday it was down to 95 odd bucks. Today, West Texas Intermediate Crude down to $91 a barrel. Now, still meaningfully more than it was, obviously, before the war. But more than half the gain, well, the increase has been given back.”

“The concept of TINA, you know, which is there, another acronym for there is no alternative. There's a lot of capital in the world, you know, you got to park it somewhere, you know, and particularly in a world where, despite inflationary concerns and the rest of it, you know, most governments are spending drunken sailors, that money's being pumped in, like, where does it go? Right?”