Standardized disclosure layers are necessary for market recovery
βThe days of tokens, just being able to launch this liquid instrument, not really define what it is, provide no disclosures about ownership, sales, those days are ending. And by the way, they should end. This does not work. Refer back to the data that we just showed. It's broken. It doesn't work. So there's actually a layer of disclosures that is the bedrock, which is just super table stakes, basic stuff.β
Sentiment currently lags price movement by six months
βAnd if you look at how this has played out in the past, there's the initial dump, then there's actually an initial recovery faster than you think, that no one really believes, because it doesn't translate business sentiment and activity lags price by about six months.β
βWe have an asset problem, and we have a trust problem. That's the core of what's happening right now, which is, you know, we'll get into some of the data that backs this up later. But I mean, the average token or the median net return of a token over the last five years is down 80%.β
Crypto transitioned from countercultural movement to mainstream
βAnd I think actually, funnily enough, what's causing the sentiment drift here is that that ideological movement industry blob that is crypto won. And so now that it won, it moved from being a movement which is on the fringe, on the outside and countercultural, to one which is in the mainstream and it's struggling with an identity crisis.β
βBut really, what is happening here is that capital markets are getting rebuilt and they're getting rebuilt on chain. That is the big opportunity mega trend of the next five to 10 years. And so when you think about capital markets, what powers capital markets is trust and infrastructure that connects investors and people with capital, the people that want to use that capital businesses, on-chain businesses.β
Market winners will consolidate as the industry matures
βI don't think it's going to be this huge surge in everything winning again. I do think there'll be some knee-jerk surge where capital moves back into the space, and maybe the dino coins pump a little bit. But that dispersion trend and the winners winning and compounding, I think will happen, and it'll give faith to everyone again.β
Real-time onchain data will smooth out market volatility
βThis transparency, having the real-time data, if the right amount is displayed, actually smooths volatility. It smooths the volatility over. So that's the opportunity for on-chain businesses. And then because all of that data is just live and it's up to date and real-time, I feel like Coinbase and any public company that does that should get some props, right? They should have to do less of the other bullshit that comes along with being a public company.β