BUY OIL

“Warsh is probably a shoo-in, basically, she didn't use that word, but somewhat done. Senator Tillis has dropped his opposition. Will Powell stay on? She doesn't think so. Right off to the sunset, his news conference, he thinks, will be somewhat nostalgic and point out inflation expectations are firmly anchored, yet we have strong economic growth and might even mention things about independence of the Fed, so that's gonna be important.”

“AI is a power tool, and so is a chainsaw. Right? You give a chainsaw to a carpenter, and they can do a skilled carpenter, and they do amazing things. You give a chainsaw to a novice, and you can cause all sorts of all sorts of problems. And so what I'm observing, both across my platform as well as within my my engineering team is the the people who are benefiting most from AI, the ones that are highly skilled and intelligent and know how to use the AI, and they're seeing productivity gains, which are astronomical. They're seeing, you know, double to triple their productivity”

“We're seeing a nice little pop on a few indices, and that's because oil is down. The daily range here, you can see, put in a lower range than we put in Friday. We started right here on Friday, wicked all the way down here, closed right here on Friday. But if you go into the wee hours right here, Monday, this is gonna be Sunday at midnight, Sunday evening, and right here, you can see when the market's open. So we opened a little bit higher than Sunday, but then started to pull back, and now we're starting to pull back even more. Stock market's gonna love if oil keeps crashing, ant crashing if it keeps falling, and Bitcoin's gonna love it if it keeps falling.”

“The iBit ETF has options. And then this is a very, very big deal, not just for investors who wanna be able to hedge their positions, their long positions. I bet it's just much easier and cheaper to do that in options.”

“Look at Southwest. This is kind of something I had learned way long ago. So when Southwest started, when they initially started back, I think it was the early 2000s or late 90s, when they initially started, oil prices were in the toilet. They were, like, really, really low compared to other times. They locked in I heard it was, like, a fifty year or twenty year contract for oil. So when they had gas for their planes, they locked in a really, really low price for, like, twenty years. So they could compete with all the competitors for twenty years.”

“Also the news that Adam Back is now throwing his weight behind Bitcoin getting ready for quantum—don't underestimate the impact of that as well. As crazy as it sounds, I mean, Nick Carter called him a clown, but it doesn't matter. He has a lot of weight in the community. I don't think that the positive side is really priced in yet.”

“Well, the real question is there's there's an awful lot of stuff in there that you would consider sort of lottery tickets. Right? Like, where it's stuff that it seems a little bit unlikely, this whole data centers in space thing. It's been tried. There's a company, I can't think of their name now, but they they launched one NVIDIA chip into space in a little satellite, to run an AI program where I think it was meant to, you know, learn the works of Shakespeare constantly had to be shut down because it overheats, because it's very difficult. You know, everyone says, well, space is cold, but it's also a vacuum, and you need air blowing over something or water or whatever to cool it, via convection. If it has to cool radiatively, you need these massive massive cooling fins on it.”

“The 20 day moving average looks like it wants to go above the 100 day moving average. Is this bullish? Should we celebrate? Should we pop the champagne? Yes, if you look at the previous times, this will make you want to pop the champagne. So the last time we saw this is April 2025 Right here, April 25th. That's actually crazy. April 25th of 2025 Right now, it is April 27th of 2026 So we're talking about 367 days ago. This is the last time we saw this. When it passed above, it would use it as support, it would sit as support, it would lose it as support, but then the 100 day was support. By that point, we were off to the races, folks. Go straight up.”

“I would not be surprised to see an operation twist type thing and a little bit even more coordination with Treasury Department to see where it goes. I, for one, I'd be happy if we had less kind of information from the Fed. I feel like forward guidance is one of those things. The first few times you do it, it has a real strong impact.”

“Dude, when I walk to work, there's just empty office space everywhere. And it I'm like, there there's this, like, below our work, there's a a jewelry store on South Congress, which is like it doesn't even have jewelry in it. It's just sitting there. Some guy probably bought it in, like, 1960. And, like, it says Cougar Jewelers, and it just, like, there's no there's no jewelry anymore. It just sits there, and it acts like a jewelry. It's it's all like a front. We're living in, like, a dystopian.”

“Here's the thing you need to know. The markets were soft before the war. The markets were soft before the war. So all the war did was shuffle the pieces around a little bit. Now I'm not saying we're in for a market crash. I don't know. But what I do know is, you know, the markets are pretty much within a trading range, and they started to break down. Then the war happened, and then they broke down for about a month. And now it looks like everything's hunky dory, but it's not. Nothing's really changed.”

“Even if you send the navy to escort ships out of the Hormuz, ships are not going to move without insurance. If the insurance remains nonexistence or extremely expensive, ships are not going to go along with the navy because shippers are going to tell Trump or Modi or anyone else who wants to send those navy vessels, telling them, look. If I go with you and I get attacked and I lose my ship and I lose everything on it, will you compensate me? And Trump is going to tell them no. They need that insurance to exist and to be cheap enough for them to move. So anyway you look at it, you say it's conspiracy theory or not, it doesn't matter. They need that insurance. So it is an insurance story anyway you look at it.”

“JPMorgan says that Iran can only withstand about two more weeks of having its crude oil exports blockaded by The United States. If that US blockade continues to be successful for more than about two more weeks, Iran will be forced to begin shutting in its oil production. And after about one more month, Iran would be forced to substantially shut in most, if not all, of its oil production because of a lack of any place to store the oil. Once shut in, those wells take a long time and cost a lot of money in order to bring back online.”

“I'm looking at Air Systems, AEHR, Air Test Systems. AEHR is the symbol. Small cap name, $2,600,000,000 market cap. It has boomed, Luke. It was trading just last April, one year ago. Down around $7 per share. Today, even after dropping 7% today, it's at $82 per share. It's moved, like, 800% in the past fifty two weeks. What about just a month? And then last month, it was trading at 30, and now it's at 82 in a in a month. I'll give you another number. 18.7%. What number do you think that is? Short interest. There you go. So this move is just probably a short squeeze.”

“The reason everyone was so pessimistic on the oil markets right up until this conflict started, was that people like the IEA and others, but most notably the International Energy Agency or the IEA, were saying that the global crude market was in the biggest surplus in oil market history. It had never been in a bigger surplus. And in fact, they were saying that supply was running about two and a half to 3,000,000 barrels ahead of demand. There's only one problem. We weren't seeing any evidence of that surplus. Notably, if in fact supply was running so much ahead of demand, inventories around the world should be surging.”

“We know that there's still a chokehold on the Straits of Hormuz, but yet Bitcoin remains resilient alongside many other markets. I don't have the brainpower to unpack this, but luckily I have amazing guests that do.”

“But we've had so far what has been called the debasement trade. I think the next shoe to drop, which to be clear, I don't think is gonna happen for a year or two or three, will be the insolvency trade, the fact that a lot of these governments are in really, really tough shape. That hasn't happened yet. We've had a debasement trade. I think the next step is the insolvency trade, and that'll be good for gold.”

“I expect this year, I fully expect, Tether to be the number two and eventually number one. That's the key thing about them. Understand the technology. It's the ability to transmit, transport, and transact dollars via stablecoins overall, and why take the extra risk in Bitcoin when you, you know, don't have to anymore?”

“I remind people constantly on here as much as people talk about these great returns and can hear people talk about 20% returns on average that the S and P five hundred, the darling that everybody these days, I guess, is just supposed to only invest in, was negative through 2013. And by 2018, it had only achieved a 5% annual return for those eighteen years. That is more than a lost decade. That's a lost generation. For a lot of people, it's one of the critical working years.”

“It really turns software development into a slot machine in that, if the if if, ultimately, you know, you you you know, you're writing your app and you you kind of need to get get caught to do something rather, you're really pulling the slot machine handle. You don't know how much gonna how much it's gonna cost you by the time the tokens are all burned, and you don't know if you're actually gonna get a a solution at the end of the day. And so, you know, I mean, I guess, only in Silicon Valley could could they turn software development into to generate gambling because that's that's kind of where you end up. And it will look at you in the eye with the eyes of a sociopath on a first date in some regards trying to, you know, gaslight you into thinking that its answer is is true when it's it's clearly not the case.”

“A new zip held survey of more than 1000 workers found 47% of Zoomers. The generation ages 14 to 29 said coverage like for drugs like Ozempic or Wegoi, Wegovi, how do you pronounce it? Wegovi? Am I saying it correctly? Wegovi. Wegovi would sway their decision between two job offers.”

“we caught a ship yesterday that had some things on it which wasn't very nice, a gift from China perhaps. I don't know. But I was a little surprised because I have a very good relationship and I thought I had an understanding with President Xi, but that's all right.”

“We have to remember hedge funds, if there's one thing they're not, they're never ever married to their positions. If something goes wrong, if there's a technical change or fundamental change, they'll seek a divorce as soon as possible, whereas the rest of us potentially can sometimes get bumped into a position where we we think we're right and the market is is wrong.”

“Austin's really interesting because we actually expanded the housing supply here massively. So my home value has gone down quite a bit in Austin since the peak, which is actually really good for the labor pool and job market. So it keeps the homeostasis of the ecosystem working. But in in San Francisco, you you know, my buddy's like, I don't understand how this housing market does not crack. It's like regulatory crap shit piled on top of each other. No supplies getting built.”

“All Trump wants to do is, in my opinion, is he just wants to have a demonstrated win. And if he can have a demonstrated win coming out of this conflict that he started, then he'll be satisfied and he'll declare a peace treaty or whatever they want to call it. And the markets are just sniffing that out.”

“Tim Cook has stepped down as Apple CEO and John Turner's named successor. Tom, is this a good thing or a bad thing? Personally, I like Tim Cook. I know a lot of people have some criticism of him, but we'll talk about Tim Cook as the new CEO, Tim Cook leaving and the new CEO coming in.”

“Number one, just at 4.25 this morning, less than five hours ago, three ships were hit. Two of them were seized by Iran. One of them is Panamanian ship. The other one is a Greek ship. And they've been seized by Iran.”

“It's this 10- to 12-day return we have had in the stock market. It's the most in about 100 years. And it rarely happens outside of bear markets. We know sharpest rallies usually happen in bear markets. Typically when these things happen, the next period afterwards, usually market continues to trade well.”

“People ask me all the time, you know, when does this really become a problem? How many years out until you really hit a severe deficit in the world's uranium market? And I tell people it's here already. It has been largely obfuscated by these massive Japanese stockpiles that were accumulated post Fukushima. Those are now gone. Those are all into the market. And so the market is trading pretty much heads up supply and demand. That's why prices just keep creeping higher and higher and higher.”

“Ten years ago, these economies were in a funk. Morgan Stanley called had a term called a fragile five for a lot of these countries. But as these cycles go, they've turned around, and growth is finally coming back up for a long time. So I I I would say you do have to look at it from a country by country basis, because, again, the index is so misleading given how lopsided it is on AI. If the AI topic story slows down or, god forget, turns negative ever, then the index will be in a world of pain. However, outside of that, there's a lot of attractive bottom up stories.”

“If this is going to drag on until May, our modeling shows that the whole globe, basically, is going to suffer a major recession and probably stagflation. When you talk to economists about the current, about the impact of the current crisis, the difference between them both of them both views see a recession, but they disagree on inflation. So are we going to have stagflation or just a recession? Regardless, this global recession basically is going to reduce global demand significantly to the level where prices will decline. So, yes, we see prices going up until we hit that recession, and then prices will decline again.”

“Well, I think one thing that you can't get away from is this the fact that despite oil being sustainably above $90 a barrel, US producers are not rushing to drill. The Dallas Fed did a survey which showed rig counts actually declined. Even after a month of 90 plus dollar oil, oil executives are saying that the price swings are a bit too wild, and they can't really stomach it moving based on tweets and paper market manipulation. It effectively makes it impossible to plan capital budgets.”

“I think, not the buried not the bury the lead here, but the biggest thing is that he said he hated Ford guidance. He wants to get rid of Ford guidance. I was like, dude, it's just a podcast, man. Why are you so upset about it?”

“Lufthansa planning to cancel 20,000 short haul flights to save jet fuel. 20,000 short haul flights to save on jet fuel, and that's not just the only story. United Airlines slash in 2026 forecast as fuel cost surge, and that story leads to the next one.”

“Back late last year, NATO had some exercises. They were called Operation Hedgehog. It was with UK and Estonia. And they were simulations of two brigades. That's 2,000 soldiers. They invited 10 Ukrainian drone operators to simulate battle against 2,000 NATO soldiers using NATO techniques, which is the same techniques The US uses. The 10 Ukrainian soldiers wiped them all out. They're killing about 30 to 35,000 Russians a month this year. 90% of the casualties are being caused by drones right now. The war has changed.”

“So the big drivers of the emerging markets for the last better part of last two, three years now have been the submission of your place, specifically in Taiwan, TSMC being the big one, and South Korea, the memory companies, SK Hynix and and Samsung. And in one stat that's pretty mind blowing is that if you look at it on a year to date basis, those three semiconductor companies, TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, are driving almost 70% of the entire index's earnings growth. So this has basically become a one way bet on the CapEx build out that you're seeing.”

“And they have, at the moment, around 10,000,000 paying customers, I believe. You know, there's some analysts out there, and they said that that, that they would reach 1,200,000,000 customers. Now, that's quite an amazing number when you look at the population of the planet who are like, there's 1,000,000,000 people on the planet who earn $35 a day, which comes to a bit under $12,000 a year. They will not be paying for, you know, $150 a month Internet access.”

“Anna Wong came out and pointed out, the the next FOMC meeting on Wednesday will be Powell's last. She did point out, Walsh is probably a shoo in. Basically, she didn't use that word, but somewhat done. Mister, senator Tillis has dropped his opposition.”

“If we get a little bit of a drawdown in the stock market, I expect this year, I hopefully expect Tether to be the number two and eventually number one. That's the key thing about them, understand the technology. It's the ability to transmit, transmore and transact dollars via stable coins overall, and why take the extra risk in Bitcoin when you don't have to anymore?”

“I think there's no doubt that even though the the market is behaving relatively benignly, especially if you're just watching front bonds, the futures price in the crude oil market, you were kind of just saying, what's the whole fuss about? But this disruption we're seeing right now is just so profound because it's not only the energy space that we are seeing being impact. And one thing is crude oil, but another thing is the old refined products where we're really seeing the the tightness right now, diesel, jet fuel, petrochemicals, and so on.”

“Unfortunately, Europe doesn't have the political will that The United States has to actually fix some of these issues and so important. I don't think anything's gonna get fixed there. We're very much up against the rock and the hard place when it comes to China as well.”

“We talk about risk tolerance in the investing world, and every prudent fiduciary or adviser is gonna work with a client. And if they're going to have investments and be involved with that, one of the first things they have to find is, what's your risk tolerance? There's a number of different things that are used to do that. Some are just very simple questionnaires. Some people have come out with these really fancy algorithmic type of risk assessments, and there's no perfect science. Because the reality of it is is that people do tend to be more risk adverse than risk tolerant. They think that they are risk tolerant when the markets are calm.”

“Today's number, ninety. That's how many seconds Russell Brand spent trying to find his favorite bible quote live on Piers Morgan before he finally gave up. The former comedian was on the show to discuss his new book, How to Become a Christian in Seven Days. Sources say step one is to be accused of sex crimes.”

“Now we're talking about a 125 times sales. And, you know, it's worth noting as well that that SpaceX is. It it is an exciting company. It is growing, but it's not grow you know, analysts expect it to grow 25% next year. That's not good enough. Like, Google went public, I forget how long ago, but it they were growing at 240% a year, and they went public at 10 times sales once again. And so the the price the it's not really the the question isn't whether it's a good or a bad company. A bad company can be a good investment if you get in at a low enough price, and an amazing company can be a terrible investment if you overpay for the stock.”

“You you know what happened to me was I started in the business in 2007, and, you know, they always say, like, that's your first impression of of things. And I was working with these guys that were caking it. And then they had no idea the market was built off of house of cards, and then 2008 came. So I was bearish from that point on for, like, ten years, and it's taken me to unwind, like, okay. Like, if you actually let a free market happen, like, a lot of this leverage would go. But now it I had to learn the hard way that, like, they're gonna back this thing up no matter what.”

“Major nuclear accidents like Chernobyl when they have happened in the past as accidents have set the nuclear power industry back by 15 when they happen. The public gets irrational and fears that a nuclear accident is somehow going to cause the nuclear plant to blow up like a nuclear bomb. So an intentional breach of containment of an operating nuclear power reactor, like the ones at Basher in Iran or Baraka in The UAE, could cause a contamination event an order of magnitude worse than Chernobyl. No military in the history of, the human race has ever intentionally targeted a operating nuclear reactor core and tried to breach its containment intentionally as an act of war.”

“It's almost every week, the number of people getting sucked in to living paycheck to paycheck and feeling stretched with what they thought was a comfortable lifestyle a year or two keeps increasing. I think that's the pressure. It's people, I think when you were scrolling through earlier, you saw some headline, people making 500K or living paycheck to paycheck.”

“The reality is you could rename Donald Trump, Donald j c Trump, Donald j capitulation. It's what he does. He's gonna throw out the extreme like he did before, like, everybody's gonna die if we don't fix this. Two days later, we have an agreement that everything's gonna be great again. But is it really? We still have a massive choke point. We still have oil extremely high.”

“Bitcoin is holding strong at $75,000, even as peace talks are seemingly falling apart in Iran. Every day, we have a new headline that conflicts with the headline we saw yesterday. Hell, every hour, we seem to have a headline that conflicts with the headlines we saw just an hour ago. But with all of that happening, as I said, Bitcoin is still strong and markets still relatively resilient.”

“Simply because if you are a passive long investor, Eric, almost no matter how you invest into a commodity space, whether it's through an ETF or through a swap, whoever provides you the ETF for the swap will always go back to the clean market, and the clean market in this this case is the futures market. And if you have a market where which is backwardation, I. E. It's a signal of a relatively tight supply, and you're holding a futures position to, as a to hedge your exposure to the ETFs and the swaps that you have issued, Every time you roll that position, if we are in backwardation, you'll be selling an expiring contract at a higher price than where you buy the next. That is giving you a positive roll yield over time.”

“With markets down roughly 10%, the ten day recovery that the stock market saw was arguably the fastest return to before the crash that we've ever had in history. It just shows you how risk on you buy. One thing: the money supply and the amount of printing and everything that's going on is so large that you have to look at it that way.”

“In the old agreement, for example, Microsoft had to pay a percentage of their cloud revenue to OpenAI because of this exclusive OpenAI offering that they got to sell to their customers. Well now, they don't have to pay revenue share to OpenAI. And while it's no longer exclusive, they still get to sell OpenAI's products to all of their customers. In other words, Microsoft's cloud revenue just went up. At the same time, Microsoft still has significant control over OpenAI.”

“Michael Saylor is about to do a mega purchase, folks. We don't know how large this is, but we do know that's a juicy orange circle. So this is sized not by dollars, but by Bitcoin. And so I didn't have quite enough time. If I would have done a normal show, I probably would have looked up what this size was or this number of Bitcoin because I'll say this orange circle pretty similar to this orange circle as far as size goes. And if you look a little closely, this looks like the biggest purchase he's had since this area right here. And so we're talking about a major purchase of Bitcoin is going to be probably announced sometime in the next two hours.”

“Small caps are the studs. They're resuming their outperformance for its large caps. His quote is the bottom line, the small caps have relative strength and valuation advantage over the large caps. S&P 500 earnings are running 13.7 percent above year ago levels. He says that's a bit above expectation, but he's not really so impressed.”

“The market panicked. And, when the market panics, it's a question of just getting out of positions or getting reduced, getting your exposure down to levels that you find that's manageable. And, so gold to a certain extent, some of the other metals will suffer from the success they've had in the previous months. So they've become a very widely held investment, meaning that they were also exposed when that situation unfolded.”

“I fully expect that to happen to crude oil, so I re-iterated my call that WTI crude oil might get to $40 a barrel in 4Q. Just find what natural gas did, because it went up too much. And the key theme for that is what does Mr. Trump want. It's a normal cycle. And the key prerequisite for that is the stock market going down, which it's not doing right now.”

“About three weeks ago, I had a problem with my with my VPN on my computer. I was using Claude to kind of help me through figuring out how to get it fixed. I'm a software developer by background. I have an engineering degree from Stanford. You know, I I I do know how to program quite well, but I kinda veered into PowerShell commands in Windows 11, which I don't know very well. And I was blindly pasting in Claude, and it made me delete my entire networking stack. And, you know, so you have these very crazy failure modes with AI where you either go in loops or it goes away in thinking and and, you know, it goes and, you know, burns, you know, 10 x the inference”

“I think the interesting thing here is that it won't be the government stepping in. I think that there's one big company that's kind of been sitting in the wings that has a god awful AI product, and, it's in everyone's pockets, and that's Apple and the iPhone. As with the .com bust, there was a lot of infrastructure that went through to the second and third owners where, you know, maybe the first owner that builds out the optical fiber, network goes bust and the second owner comes in and tries makes it to be breakeven after after, you know, purchasing it at a cheaper price and washing out the underlying sunk costs, and then the third owner comes in and and makes money out of it. And I think you might have that situation in the AI compute space”

“Also, World Liberty Finance had some drama in the week. This is, remember Trump's DeFi project. It was caught doing some on-chain shenanigans. We're going to explore that and ask the question, is this the new cycle FTX? Did World Liberty just pull a sandbag, McFreed? We got Justin Sun weighing in on that.”

“It's a giant CapEx boom in in in and I think check this out. This is slide 47. This is Tesla, expects their CapEx. So that's everyone's basically forced because before the competition was, I wanna raise debt and buy back my stock and shrink the equity. Now it's like, hey. We have this frontier that we're pursuing. And if I don't raise a lot of debt and pursue it, I'm gonna be so left behind because this is like a divergent technology.”

“Unfortunately, Europe doesn't have the political will that the United States has to actually fix some of these issues and so on. I don't think anything is going to get fixed there. We're very much up against the rock and the hard place when it comes to China as well. Half of the EU members want to make friends with China and become closer, or the other half see China as the baddies that want to flood our market with cheap goods.”

“The highs that it painted in January 28th of this year was the highest that the S&P had, was at which was exactly 7,000. And Ryan, as of today, we are at 7,036 on the S&P 500 So we are up into new all-time high territories as of today, the day of recording the 16th and also the 15th, two all-time highs in a row.”

“Meanwhile, Saylor's stretch is new STRC, not that new, but new into the zeitgeist is printing billions of dollars. The market clearly likes it. It's putting a very healthy bid on Bitcoin. Is this the best instrument Saylor has ever created? Will it be the catalyst to send Bitcoin to all-time highs, or alternatively, will it be our demise?”

“I pay more attention to Brent because that represents oil on the move, oil actually on the ocean. And it's up at a 106 and hitting higher today. That's really an uncomfortable area for it to be in.”

“I have a very basic viewpoint, which is the Fiat Ponzi scheme may very well be a Ponzi scheme. In fact, I think it is. But the entire world's power structure is on the side of keeping it moving. And given the tools they have at their disposal, they're going to keep it moving. And in that case, fading it at any one point in time is gonna be extremely costly.”

“The reason I chose the September contract rather than June is I think that the excessive backwardation that we've seen so far during this crisis has been rooted in the market's assumption that this would be a short lived conflict. My view is that it's likely to drag on longer than most people think. So I have a 15 to one maximum payoff for my entry price below $2. I was looking for an extreme right tail risk hedge. And while it sounds like a speculation on oil prices, it's actually much more of a risk hedge for my equity and gold portfolio.”

“Microsoft is trading at 22 times forward earnings. Alphabet's trading at 30. Amazon's trading at 32. So we land where we landed last week. And that is that Microsoft stock still looks pretty attractive. As I mentioned a couple weeks ago, I bought it when the stock hit $400 and I bought again when it hit $380. It's now up to $425. We will find out more when the company reports earnings later this week. But as of today, it still seems relatively cheap.”

“What's interesting with the the current composition of the emerging market index is that it's really not a reflection on the underlying emerging market economies. It's basically become a bet on the AI CapEx build out you're seeing. So the big drivers of the emerging markets for the last better part of last two, three years now have been the semiconductor plays, specifically in Taiwan, TSMC being the big one, and South Korea, the memory companies SK Hynix and and Samsung. And in one stat that's pretty mind blowing is that if you look at it on a year to date basis, those three semiconductor companies, TSMC, Samsung, SK Hynix, are driving almost 70% of the entire index's earnings growth. Wow. So this has basically become a one way bet on the CapEx build out that you're seeing.”

“There's a company I can't think of their name now, but they they launched one NVIDIA chip into space in a little satellite, to run an AI program where I think it was meant to, you know, learn the works of Shakespeare or something like that. It constantly had to be shut down because it overheats, because it's very difficult. You know, everyone says, well, space is cold, but it's also a vacuum, and you need air blowing over something or water or whatever to cool it, via convection. If it has to cool radiatively, you need these massive, massive cooling fins on it. And so the next version of this tiny, you know, Shakespeare satellite is going to have the second largest cooling array in space behind the International Space Station.”

“The Straits Of Hormuz are apparently open to commercial traffic that's coming from Iran, and Bitcoin is pumping. I haven't really had a chance to check all markets, but, you know, up above 77,000, at least, it broke above it. Oil is the real story, down $81. I can't imagine how many people have been liquidated on the short side trading on all these weird venues, so we'll see.”

“Our view is that the straits are still very much closed. Oil Brent oil is close to a $110 per barrel. And if you look at the refined products of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, they're closer to $200 per barrel. And you're already seeing an economic slowdown across most Asian countries, and that our view is that the next leg will be in Europe. So so we actually think the markets are being very complacent about the risk of an oil shock or a higher for longer oil environment.”

“And then I point out the key theme is, again, drawing your attention to the bottom of this chart, we have I overlays gold volatility overlay with S and P 500 balance. It's just never been that wide. It's never stays that way. It almost almost leads the way.”

“And so today, we approach every year, every growing season, almost like we're going down this razor's edge. On the one hand, demand is off the charts. On the other hand, yields are off the charts. And we said to ourselves every year, if anything happens to disrupt that growing season, if anything happens to impact the yields, this market will be very tight in a hurry. And I think that this fertilizer issue could be that. You've needed perfection in your crop year in and year out to meet demand. And I'm worried that finally, with this impact on fertilizer supply, we're not going to be able to get another record yield.”

“It's okay to sit in cash for, like, a few weeks or a month or two months. It's okay. I know you get scared that inflation's gonna kill your cash, but honestly, it's better than losing money. Because what if the war starts back up and the markets just drop five or 6% overnight? You're gonna be mad. If it goes up five or 6%, are you gonna be mad? Whatever. Seemless five or 6%. Just jump back on the train. You wanna think about the risk you're taking for the reward you're getting.”

“It's the art of war. The generals tend to fight the last war. And while there's COVID and we did see a little inflation as of the last few years, really, the major crisis of most people's recent memory is o eight, is the financial crisis. And that was a big deflationary impulse. But the previous crisis is usually not the next crisis. The next crisis is usually something very, very different. And in this instance, it really is inflation, that the risk for most people's portfolios is that inflation continues to eat away purchasing power.”

“There's an interview with the CEO of NVIDIA, and he said the biggest bottleneck we have right now with AI data center build outs is we can't find enough plumbers for the data centers. Like, that's the the bottleneck is in the semis. It's it's literally just the plumbers to be in there setting up the plumbing at the data centers.”

“We're gonna look at the liquidation heat map. This is where traders are getting liquidated. And so oftentimes price is incentivized to go to that level because exchanges will make a lot of money. And you could say, maybe it's market makers, maybe it's the exchange is trading against the users, maybe it's just the psychology of a human being... It's no surprise we're gonna see liquidations right around 80K. And a little bit below 76, basically 77,000 even. 77,000 even. Oh yeah, coming in right below this wick right here. So coming in right below that wick, if it goes that low, nothing insane, nothing to worry about.”

“So first of all, you're absolutely right that from a physical dislocation perspective, what we're seeing right now is pretty clearly the largest disruption in the global energy markets that we've ever seen. But we're not necessarily feeling or experiencing all of that dislocation just yet. As everyone now knows, about 20% of the world's crude market passes through the Strait Of Hormuz and about 20% of the LNG trade as well. By most estimates, you're talking about somewhere between at the absolute low end, 10,000,000 and the absolute high end, 15. Split the difference, call it 12,000,000 barrels a day of impacted oil that's essentially not making it to market, which is huge.”

“S&P 500 getting above this range. This range has been stuck in since 2020 You can go all the way back to the COVID lows where it caught the bottom. You can see the tariff tantrum even more recently, and you see a couple down moves right there after 2022 January, you can see just a lot of indices were down, and it goes all the way back here to, I said COVID 2017 And so this is a 10 year parallel range, almost, nine years here. Look, we are trying to break above here. So this could be very bullish, but last time we were above it, we were above it for two days, and it didn't end up doing anything. We actually came back down to the midway point right there.”

“The most, striking one reason has been cocoa prices, which went from 2 and a half thousand to 12,000 only took utterly collapse back to where we came from simply because there was a response both from the demand side, which slowed, and the supply side, which increased. Chocolate manufacturers, they start to look at reducing the number of cocoa content. That makes, obviously, the chocolate bar a bit cheaper to produce. In some places, we also have shrinkflation, so the bar is suddenly not the size that you were used to. So the combination of these things basically had a major impact on demand in Europe.”

“The SEC just gave DeFi a broker exemption, very material for a lot of the company's protocols, apps that we know and love. We'll talk about the significance of that and what we can do now. And also, the Bitcoin community taking quantum seriously, putting forward a quantum plan to free Satoshi's Bitcoins.”

“Trump did something that I don't really think anyone saw coming, at least most people did not see coming. He just blocks the Strait of Hormuz. It's like, oh, you guys are going to block it, we're going to block it. And now we are securing the Strait to allow for ships who are not going to Iran. So any country going to the UAE, to Saudi Arabia, those ships can go to those ports so long as they are not going to Iranian ports.”

“Well, the the thing that's quite questionable about the way this IPO is being done is just the way that it is being forced into the Nasdaq 100 index almost instantly. I think there's gonna be a fifteen day delay. And also the waiting that it'll be given is much higher than you would expect for a company with a very low float. So in a funny way, the company goes public at a very high valuation. People will probably buy in. Firstly, there's a lot of people are just very excited about Elon Musk and his companies. They'll they'll put money in, but then the, the expectation is that the indexes will be buying fifteen days later. You know, at the current valuation they're talking about, it would have a four and a half percent weight in the in the Nasdaq 100.”

“You've got a K-shaped economy that we keep talking about. And so yeah, the market is the economy in the sense that it needs to stay high for us to avoid a recession, right? And that is clear. Trump talks about the market nonstop and he hasn't this term as much. But the first term, you remember, is almost every single press conference he was talking about the market.”

“Well, there's somewhat of a ceasefire and a blockade in the Straits Of Hormuz, And about 13% of the global oil supplies have been basically closed off to the rest of the world. And gulf producers shut in about 9,000,000 barrels per day of output, which, as you would imagine, is a bit of a problem for especially countries that are dependent on energy. Goldman Sachs has estimated the Persian Gulf crude output is down 14,500,000 barrels per day. That's 57% lower than prewar levels. And total US oil exports earlier this month hit an all time high of 12,900,000 barrels per day.”

“The Senate should not be aiding and abetting Donald Trump's illegal takeover of the Fed by installing his chosen sock puppet as chair. It's an invitation for corruption and for economic catastrophe. We have the power to stop it and we should be using that power.”

“I've had this conversation with countless people. They feel as though they are earning something when they get a dividend. This is passive income by getting a dividend, and that's just not the case. Settlers paribus, all things being equal, if a company pays out a cash dividend, its price should drop. Its market cap should drop by roughly the amount of the cash that leaves the portfolio. And so you are trading optionality for an income stream. If you want an income stream, invest in bonds.”

“But what moves the price always is the last trade and chances are the last trade is from someone who sees it as a risk asset. So it will continue to behave as one. And when the stock market's going down, you sell what you can. You raise cash and ask questions later.”

“It's a one thirty thirty strategy, essentially, where you go one thirty long, 30% short. So the short positions effectively generate losses that can offset gains from selling your concentrated stock position. They tend to be pretty high fee, though, because they're high input. You could be paying, I don't know, one and a half percent on top of whatever your advisory fee is just to kind of manage that. You're also not really eliminating your taxes. You're just deferring them. Eventually, the tax man always gets paid.”

“Overall, it was a down day driven by news around Open AI. The CFO, Sarah Friar, said the company may not be able to pay for competing contracts if their revenue growth does not accelerate from where they're at. They miss their own targets of new users, revenue, and raise concerns that they'll be able to continue to spend as much as they are on their data centers, which kinda hit the tech industry as a whole, and that's why you saw the Nasdaq down. About 1% on the day, S and P down about half a percent.”

“iBit ETF has options. And this is a very, very big deal, not just for investors who want to be able to hedge their positions, their long positions on iBit. It's just much easier and cheaper to do that in options. You can get much more sophisticated strategies with the options than you can on just plain old futures. It's also market makers.”

“Gone are the days where we look at the chairman's words, parse every comma and every syllable that the chairman says to divine what policy is gonna be. Chairman is now one of 12 voters. And right now, what you're seeing out of this is confusion as to what this means in terms of whether or not the Fed should be cutting rates because it might be slowing down the real economy or they should be raising rates because it might be adding to inflation.”

“While you you are riding on that sort of silicon Moore's law trend, because the models are in such a brutally competitive environment where there's, literally zero lock in, there's, you know, almost zero switching costs so I can and, yeah, if one day chat GPT five comes out, I'll switch to that, but then cord 4.6 opus comes out and that's better. I'll switch to that, and so there's nothing stopping me overnight really just changing the models. What the situation basically is that each generation of model is being rushed out to kind of get the top of the scoreboard so that all the the customers flock to that. And as a result of that, the actual amount of inference or, tokens burned, if you will, per useful query with each generation of model while the underlying compute is getting cheaper and cheaper in terms of, what you can get done on the chips, the amount of inference you have to burn for a useful query is actually going up quite dramatically.”

“We said, there's a pump in the cards. There is a pump trying to happen, but we gotta turn three resistances into support. Then it's gonna be party time. Right now, we're just in the parallel range. The three instances that we gotta flip here, 2400, 100 day, the parallel range here. Gosh darn it, we tried to close above it. We really did. I mean, we did close above. We opened here on Sunday. Would close the Daily Candle up here, wicked all the way up here earlier, and then now we are falling back below. So we are being rejected off the $2400 range and the 100 day range.”

“I think the best investments right now remain in the oil equities, believe it or not, because many of them have moved, but they've moved, like, 30 or 40%. They haven't had the kinda two to three x move that the spot price of oil has had. I think you can buy oil stocks, and you can get that same exposure, essentially, the same type of exposure as trying to play for a move higher in the $75 December dated contract. You know, if December contract goes from 75 up to 100, a basket of oil stocks, certainly offshore drilling stocks, will do very, very, very well.”

“Microsoft and OpenAI have had a contractual relationship for many years, but recently that situation became contentious. Part of the agreement was that in exchange for its compute, Microsoft would be the only cloud provider that could sell OpenAI's products. In other words, the relationship between Microsoft and OpenAI has long been exclusive. But now they're changing that. OpenAI will be allowed to partner with other companies, which means they can now sell ChatGPT through other platforms such as say AWS which is Amazon's cloud unit which effectively means that the relationship with Microsoft is now an open relationship.”

“OnlyFans' interest has been going down, and interest in church has been surging. And then I've been seeing these I don't know if you've seen them, but these videos of, every Sunday in West Village in New York, all Yes. Everybody's there's a huge the the hottest place to go right now in West Village in New York is going to Catholic church.”

“We are the world's largest oil producer. We produce 22,800,000 barrels, about 22% of the world's total. The next is Saudi Arabia, which produces 11%, and then Russia, about 10%. Canada, about 6%. China, 5%. Iran, 4%. UAE and Iraq, around four. So I share this because you hear these knuckleheads and bobbleheads on TV talking, you'd think the world's gonna end, and, oh my god, we're not gonna be able to heat our houses.”

“And it gets even worse on these $200 plans, which are used by programmers now because the nature of programming is you're streaming tokens almost forever. And, you know, the average user on a, on a $200 plan can burn, you know, many thousands of dollars of underlying compute. And in fact, there's a there's a leaderboard called Vibrank, which, where people compete to see how much money how how much underlying compute they can burn on a $200 plan, and the leading guy on the, on the leaderboard has burned 51,000 US dollars in a single month on a $200 plan.”

“And and and, this is getting a little bit long, Harry. But I think also interesting to note that in the last six weeks, how much has The US crude oil production risen by zero barrels? How many additional rigs has been employed in in The US shale area? Zero rigs. Basically, where are The US producers? Why why are we not seeing any response? And I think part of that is is clearly the fact that the curve is very backwardated.”

“We are five years without the Fed hitting their 2% inflation target. So I've been of the case of the opinion that we're not in a 2% inflation world. We're in a three ish percent inflation world. As I like to joke with you and others, I like to say, I didn't say eight times in Zimbabwe. I don't think I'm saying it's gonna be runaway inflation. But if we're in a three ish percent inflation world and a world of greater uncertainty, I would still argue that interest rates are probably going to go higher just to hit their fair value, maybe closer to 5%.”

“I said, watch out for this support here. You can see it really, really good on the four hour. And so I filmed this Friday afternoon. That's Friday at midnight. So I filmed this here. I filmed this like, yeah. And after this is when I filmed the Cardano video, I said, keep an eye out on this level. This is a very, very important level. I expect Cardano to hold support here. But if it loses support, I really should bounce near this 24 cents. And look at that, folks. Oh, actually looks like we're trying to lose it. Uh-oh, uh-oh, so Cardano might be revisiting 24 cents if it cannot hold this range.”

“If you're buying oil, the price is, according to this, for the May, it's $1.12. But what if you look a month out in June? Well, oil is only $97. And then if you look out in September, it's $77. And if you look out in a year, it's $70. The smartest people in the world that are pricing oil, you know, buying and selling the price of oil, they think that by May, it'll be 112. By that date, it'll be 112. This is how markets work. They price in future expectations.”

“And it it's the the valuation they're talking about, to be clear, they're talking about a 125 times sales. So that's not earnings, that's sales. And we don't even really know what the earnings are of SpaceX. There was, you know, the Reuters published that they had EBITDA of, $8,000,000,000. But EBITDA is not earnings. It's earnings before, essentially, the cost of building satellites and building rockets, you know, which for SpaceX, you have to imagine is a significant cost.”

“Everything I'm reading says that American farmers, and I'm sure it's probably the same in Europe, the farmers can't afford or can't get their hands on enough fertilizer to fertilize the crops as much as they normally would want to. So they're planting under fertilized crops, seems to me like that can only mean undersized yields that presumably results in higher prices. Am I right about that?”

“China got the message out of the stories that have been published in major news media outlets and very prestigious outlets. We've seen a number of stories talking about Iran closing the Hormuz Strait. Again, we are talking about June. So what I wrote at that time was China got the message, and the message was the homeless rate will be closed. But it's not Iran who is going to close the Hormuz Strait. It is The United States. We've been talking about how China was building those massive inventories, oil inventories and everything else, in preparation for either war, sanctions, or a major interruption. Now we know. China knew.”

“This is the ESG population. I I was dying when I saw this just because when we saw all these, you know, giant BlackRock cares about, you know, oh, the environment and social good. And they they convinced all the pension funds. You know what's interesting is it died right when inflation returned at the top of 2022. So so so the extrapolation is ESG was just a zero rate phenomenon. And as as soon as real life costed something, it went away.”

“Do you remember when the Ukraine war started? I mean, incredible tragedy in terms of human life, but people were talking about how the mass famines were coming. Yet that's not been happening. So, I mean, I'm not saying you can't, and I'm not saying we should be cavalier, but financially betting on doomerism is a really, really good way to lose piles of money.”

“We started we traded the year in the 60 to $75 range looking at Brent. And I think there there is an argument that once the dust settles and we're on the other side of this, we should expect prices to settle in at least $10 higher level, maybe even to $15 higher. So the floor has moved higher for for this. And that basically means if you're looking at Brent crude for December at $80, that's potentially where the the new floor should be.”

“Go back to the history of Micron's earnings. I will read them from 2020 to 2027. $5.14, $7.74, negative $5.34, 70¢, $7.59. So I think the question is not are earnings real today, but are they sustainably real moving forward, or are we just at a point in time where things are at the right position cyclically? The last peak in earnings for Micron was $8.35 in 2022. So analysis to earn over 10 times that next year. It's just not likely to be durable.”

“I think the yen is the clue to watch what happens because if the yen really breaks $1.60, the dollar wrecking ball kind of if it breaks with volume and power, I think the dollar wrecking ball merges and causes credit credit problems. Look back at every time the yen crashed down from 106 or, you know, or the dollar, weakened from 160 USD JPY, and the Nasdaq usually peaks right there or around it.”

“The problems of financial industry are a combination of the size of the problem and the transparency of the problem. So let me explain it. If you have a trillion dollars of bad debt in the financial industry and everyone knows where it is, it's not a problem. But if you have 10,000,000,000 of bad debt in the industry and no one knows where it is, we've got a big problem. The reason is this. If everyone knows where the bad debt is, everyone positions around it.”

“Reason we just come to know as well that, miners in South America then need sulfuric acids in order to break down the copper from the from their mines. And that basically means with 50% of that coming out of The Middle East, then we also suddenly face a potential shortage in in that area. We talked about we we helium has been mentioned prior to the chips industry.”

“Well, this is where the fifth industrial revolution meets the Islamic revolution. Right? A lot of the financing for AI has come from The Middle East, and you can imagine now if you're Saudi Arabia or you're The UAE and you have a fiduciary duty to protect your nation and your citizens and your economy, are you gonna be putting it into a hyper rounds of Sam Altman's, highly inflated valuations, or will you spend on defense energy rebuilding rebuilding your your civilian and and industrial infrastructure and potentially going to war to to fund an army?”

“The Southern Poverty Law Center in a massive sweeping indictment has been charged with allegations of fraud and using the banking system to perpetrate that fraud. I just want to talk about a couple of brief things here. The Southern Poverty Law Center themselves advertise to raise money to dismantle violent extremist groups for a period of at least a decade.”

“Our view is that The Straits are still very much closed. Oil Brent oil is close to a $110 per barrel. And if you look at the refined products of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, they're closer to $200 per barrel. And you're already seeing an economic slowdown across most Asian countries, and that our view is that the next leg will be in Europe. So so we're actually think the markets are being very complacent about the risk of an oil shock or a higher for longer oil environment.”

“The headline number is 122,000,000,000 raised on a 730,000,000,000 pre money valuation. When you get down to the actual segmentation of kind of what's going on, it's it it seems that it's only about $25,000,000,000 worth of cash. It's and it seems to be more of a vendor financing than an actual straight cash injection. You've got Amazon, Nvidia, and, SoftBank primarily putting the money in or the in kind in. Amazon's putting in 50,000,000,000, but that's contingent on OpenAI spending a 100,000,000,000, I think, over the next eight years on their compute”

“Like, the, you know, the the idea that so firstly, Nasdaq had to change all of their rules to allow this inclusion because normally a company needs to be you know, there's a list of rules as to how they weigh, you know, a low float company going into an index, how long it's been public, because the idea is it needs to be seasoned in the market and sort of find a valuation with real buyers and sellers. So normally, you would expect it to take about a year, at least, to even consider adding it. Fifteen days is unheard of, and then getting rid of the the caps for the the float on it. You know, Reuters reported that this is because Elon Musk negotiated with Nasdaq and said, you know, we we can list this thing on the NYSE, we can list it on the Nasdaq, we can list it wherever we want.”

“He has often talked about how he just doesn't think the Fed should be talking to the public so much. He has talked about getting rid of forward guidance. This may well be the last FOMC press conference we ever get the privilege of witnessing.”

“Well, I expect to be bombing because I think that's a better attitude to go in with. But we're ready to go. I mean, the military is raring to go. They are absolutely incredible. I built the military in my first term. I'm using it now.”