AVOID TREASURIES

“Our world and data put out a chart. Data is 2015, but it shows world population of seven and a half billion. And then it shows world population supported without synthetic fertilizer. World population in 2015 with fertilizers, seven and a half billion. World population without synthetic nitrogen fertilizers in 2015, 3,900,000,000. That's the dynamic we're talking about.”

“I would just point you to the blatant front running in the oil markets, which I'm sure you saw. Right? Somebody, you know, on the March 24, somebody front ran on $500,000,000 in notional, shorting oil ahead of Trump's tweet. And then last week, somebody front ran the ceasefire, $950,000,000 in notional. That's those are big boy positions. Who's getting the heads up?”

“I think it's as simple as the people in finance who are not physical crude oil market traders just don't understand the logistics lag effect. And trust me, the among professional physical market crude oil traders, there's no complacency crisis there. They're scared shitless. And I think what people don't understand is the last tanker to transit successfully on February 28 before all of this stuff started, that Hormuz oil will arrive at its destination next week.”

“If they don't let inflation print the real number or they cap yields or whatever they do, then real inflation's gonna show up politically no matter what. It's a good environment to, you know, own cash and own gold and go to the beach and have a drink because it's gonna be it's gonna be a tough environment.”

“HSBC's CEO, you know, quoted and and noted that, the highest delivered barrel of an of a barrel of oil he's seen so far that has soothed this crisis was $286 a barrel for a cargo that was delivered to Sri Lanka, which, like, clearly, there are massive physical dislocations in this market. Now that can only last for so long in a market that is freely traded. Those immense acute local pain points can get arbitraged away through trade. But that takes time.”

“I had thought that number was 4.6% to 4.8% on The US ten year treasury yield. Last three weeks, four weeks have shown me at least that Bessent and Trump seem to think that number is 4.4% because every time it breaks 4.4%, like, the war goes away for a couple days and some sort of positive announcement. Or the last week, week and a half ago, Bessent did the single biggest treasury buyback in a single day in history at $15,000,000,000.”

“And when it started, my worst case scenario was that this could end up being a US SUEZ nineteen fifty six moment. And now seven weeks in, Hormuz is still closed. Supply chain issues are just now really starting to to stack up. So I think the base case now for me is that this is a US Suez 1956 moment where until Hormuz reopens, I think supply chains are gonna keep getting worse exponentially from here.”

“The former commander in chief of the Iranian, the IRGC came out, like, a week, week and a half in and said, listen, our plan is simple. They were planning on a very short stay. We can see that from their logistics. All we're gonna do is we're gonna hang in here and we are going to create a financial crisis. Like, Hormuz stays closed, the world economy is gonna collapse. We can debate how long it'll take Hormuz to stay closed for it to collapse. But if it stays closed long enough, the world economy will absolutely 100% collapse.”

“Foreign central banks who once upon a time were the one of, if not the biggest holder, they haven't bought any new treasuries since 2014 on net. Fed did a white paper in October '25 that pointed out that 37% of the net issuance of US treasury notes and bonds, 37% of net net issuance over the last four years has been the Cayman Islands, which is heavily US hedge funds. We've gone from financing with very patient foreign insurers and and pensions and central banks to highly levered hedge funds who who sell treasuries when risk goes off.”

“Closing the Red Sea and the Strait Of Hormuz at the same time sounds to me like lights out for the global economy. That's a really big deal, and a little bit of research I did suggest, well, hey, the Houthis have already successfully closed the Strait Of Bab El Mandeb a couple of times previously, there's really no reason they couldn't do it again. So is that a serious threat?”