AVOID QUANTUM

“Just ask yourself, like, does de dollarization need need to happen? Does the Petro yuan need to happen? Do do we need to enter into thousand percent hyperinflation or, you know, massive, unprecedented big print? All of which is possible. But do we need that for Bitcoin to be an attractive investment, for Bitcoin to be an attractive technology to use for for payments at the sovereign level, the institutional level? And I, you know, I think I think the answer is definitively no.”

“The thing that really first just, like, tipped tipped me off to it was last summer with the MP Materials deal for, you know, an equities massive equity stake in MP Materials and other rarest brews here in The US with offtake agreements as well and price floors, which is very industrial policy, very, you know, World War two preparation style, unfortunately, kind of central planning flavor in a policy. Well, you're seeing that here, as well with this deal. And so a major financing package for the deal from the Development Finance Corporation, which is, government Pentagon aligned, as well as a a long term fifteen year, 100% off take agreement with with price floors largely, it looks like, subsidized by and guaranteed by the government.”

“Bitcoin developers making Taproot not quantum-resistant is the craziest thing that's ever happened. I went back and I looked at the discussion. They knew. Luke Dash raised this objection at the time and said, hey guys, by the way, Taproot addresses are vulnerable to quantum. This is 2021. At that point, we did know that quantum would happen eventually. So what the hell were they thinking?”

“This sort of this is leaning on the authority of NIST or the perceived authority of NIST. Everybody is pointing at NIST and saying, well, NIST is saying that, and NIST is doing this, and we need to do what NIST is saying. I think it's, again, tone deaf and naive because Bitcoin Satoshi picked LibSec p two two fifty six k one, that cryptographic library, because he looked at a lot of the NIST approved and recommended cryptographic signature schemes and found that a lot of them had embedded constants, which ultimately led to backdoors.”

“In, you know, public company investing and Bitcoin's not public company, but public company investing, one of the key hallmarks of a CEO and a management team you wanna avoid is when they're overly focused on short term gyrations in stock price. Like, they just gotta get stock price up, and they're really freaked out when the stock price goes down one quarter, when the market misunderstands a quarter and sells sells the stock on earnings or something. And I see a lot of that in the conversation about Quantum, both from the institutional side, but also from some technical people as well. I would just encourage people to fade that type of thinking because that is a great way to optimize for decisions that will not help and will not drive value and will not drive stability and sustainability in the long term for any system.”

“So it's been funny to see, the portfolio of things that Sam invested in fraudulently, has now continued to grow. So Anthropic is worth a trillion dollars. I think he didn't de seed investment in Cursor. They put $200,000 into a $400,000 pre seed round there, and that Cursor announced this week that what they have given, Elon Musk the option to buy that company at $60,000,000,000 post SpaceX IPO. So it is a tragedy in a sense, though, that Sam really was a generational investor.”

“So when you work backwards from Q-Day, it was like Y2K with a bottom. We work backwards from Q-Day. Okay. Q-Day, let's say it's 2033. Okay. We'll be conservative, right? How long will it have taken for Bitcoin to migrate? I don't know, five years? Okay. How long will it have taken for us as a community to agree on the path forward? Three years? How long will it have taken for us to test the code? A year? That takes us back to now in the past. Yeah. But we're in the present. So the numbers are not adding up anymore, right?”

“Bitcoin is actually the only thing that can't upgrade, along with some like really old school, antiquated, like physical devices where the cryptography is flashed into the memory and can't ever be upgraded because it's physical, right? So Bitcoin is in a very unique class of things that can't upgrade easily. When I was doing it in banks and whatever, they'll upgrade the database, the government's told them.”

“By 2035? 70 to 80 percent. Maybe higher. By 2030, I would say 100 percent possible, 20 to 5 to 30 percent. There are many hundreds of millions of dollars that have been deployed with this belief in mind. So you don't really have to trust me. You have to trust, well, there's actually institutional investors out there that genuinely believe this, and we're able to convince their IC to put hundreds of millions of dollars into this concept.”

“So there are rules around you can't day trade in retirement accounts, like IRAs, Roth IRAs. So you're don't use that. Basically, what what happened is you traded unsettled shares, meaning you bought it, but they actually settle the next day, and you sold it before it actually settled. Now if you wanna day trade, that's what he said, open up a brokerage account. So yes, you should open a brokerage account, but also don't use Vanguard. We use Schwab and now Fidelity. Vanguard is not for trading. It doesn't have good technology, does not have good customer service.”

“If Satoshi has just quietly been sitting there not saying shit for fifteen years, and all of a sudden, it's like, well, actually, I want the optionality of selling my coins. I don't wanna get locked forever. And this is the problem. If they do, in eight years' time, of this process, there will be a day where the coins will be locked forever. And at that point, if Bitcoin's a million dollars or something, it becomes, like, hundreds of billions of dollars of Bitcoin that's now just off the market. You have to imagine on that day, there's gonna be a God candle the likes of which we have not seen before.”

“I spent a lot of time reading about whether people that recovered coins from ancient shipwrecks were able to claim the coins. There was a famous one in Florida in the 70s, 80s. He spent 16 years looking for this. His wife and his son died in the course of this. So it was a really like Faustian thing, like he really suffered to get, and then he got his time on the shipwreck, and he dug up all the coins, $500 million worth of Spanish gold. From the 1600s, and Spain sued him over it, and he won, but it cost him everything.”

“You might have seen there was audio of a tanker captain released of the camp captain effectively begging the IRGC boats to not fire on his ship. And he kinda said, well, they'd paid the toll. Why are you shooting at me? It's looking like the ship may have fallen victim to a crypto scam. Someone fraudulently represented themselves as the RGC toll authorities. They pay the toll. They expect they'll go through unmolested. They get fired upon by the Iranians that never received a payment and that this whole mess takes place.”

“Bitcoin screamed up to 78,000 on the seventeenth, so last Friday. And it's it's held up pretty well throughout all this. you had Bitcoin on the one month chart really diverging from the software stocks index from from Vanguard, I think. There was some sharp divergence. Bitcoin up 6%. Software stocks down about a percent, and they've been trading in tandem since the middle of last year.”

“And if you ever read Fin Brunton's book, I think it's called Digital Cash. He explicitly makes that connection, like, well, part of the reason they cyberbunks wanted this kind of electronic money was because they planned on coming back to life in the distant future, and they wanted an asset that they could return to.”

“One of the few things I've been following over the weekend because it's just so fascinating and validates something that we've been worrying or warning about in the space for for many years is the the draining of multiple DeFi protocols by hackers because the virtual machines that they're running on aren't as secure as as many people were led to believe and are not as decentralized as many people were led to believe either. So that, like, if you have a bunch of DeFi actors going aping in the stretch and they're doing it on insecure protocols or using insecure smart contracts, could could get interesting there as well.”

“What we need is more diligence from the DeFi protocols themselves over what assets they list and support. Because if you're listing 30 different assets and each of them has a 5% chance of being hacked in a given year, altogether, now you have a very high probability of something going wrong. And so you're exposed to the security practices of not just you, but every other organization in your pool. So it's a really bad security model.”

“And he had a comment there about new verticals. And a lot of people would get excited about that. But usually when I see that, after a long period of growth, what I sniff out is a bit of management desperation. But they can't They're already the biggest, right? It's them in Lyft, kind of dualopoly there, and there's not much room to grow elsewhere. And so they're looking to maximize their platform by going to different verticals. Now it may work, but usually it spreads the focus and doesn't ultimately produce a great business.”

“Mark Carney's comments, I guess, in in reaction to to Trump's posturing towards Canada specifically. And if you're thinking, like, deep state actors placing Mark Carney in the prime minister role of Canada seems to be very strategic for for the incumbent power structure. If you know the history of Mark Carney at the Bank of England and HSBC and his involvement in the the cartel the cartel money laundering case with the HSBC where they're putting, duffel or, excuse me, briefcases full of cash through teller windows. They designed the teller window. He's he's had his fingers in everything. Many would consider him a a Davos class economic actor.”

“One out of 100. So you fail at 50 percent, right? Anything below that is an F. They mostly don't think it's real or they won't acknowledge that it's real. I read all the discussions on the mailing list about it. There's one named BIP that has to do with quantum, which is by an outsider. It's a very nice guy, Hunter Beast. He's not like part of the inner club, right?”

“Satoshi's coins are in an insecure format, and it's weird that Satoshi left them like that, because Satoshi was aware of this risk. But if Satoshi had really cared about the risk, Satoshi would have not left a million to two million coins laying about. It's nuts. Like in 2010, Satoshi couldn't have known that 15 years later, as it turns out, it's impossible to upgrade Bitcoin.”

“Austin was the poster child. It it had the was the first to really see rents drop, has a vacancy rate of 13.7%. The steepest rent decline nationally right now at 4.8%. Denver down 3.6. Phoenix down 2.9. Tampa down 2.8.”

“And then Jameson, I wake up and I look at my feet and Jameson's like, so I have a bit to propose that we freeze the coins. And I'm just like, I'm so excited for this timeline. Because it is the antithesis of Bitcoin, not even, like, just the hard line Bitcoiners. Like, if you're in Bitcoin, you are against freezing. The word freezing, blocking is like blasting. And it's not, again, it's not just a hard line Bitcoiners. Like, this is a this is a core tenant of Bitcoin.”

“Now, if you're looking for the most juice to the upside, meaning copper continues to go up in price, prices take off, the delta in the change of their financial situation is gonna be much larger than a company that's already producing profits within the space. So to me, that's the only argument of owning this is, I want the most juice for the upside of copper prices, and this might be the one. But it's gonna be extremely volatile, extremely volatile.”

“There was one of the more amusing ones I've ever seen was this Paris temperature market. So there wasn't a ton of volume on this because why would anyone bet on the temperature in Paris on a given day? It was an Oracle attack, so they were using a single sensor near the Charles De Gaulle Airport. The guy bought the 22 degree, that's in Celsius, 22 degree option which was trading at basically zero, took a hairdryer, heated it up, the sensor triggers, the market closes, he wins and then gets arrested.”

“Annual net deliveries peaked at 690,000 units in 2024, a forty year high. But last year, it decelerated to only 523,000 units, down 25. This year, expected to contract another 36%, only 333,000 units. The lowest annually annual delivery total since 2014. So you can see the industry adjusts.”

“Calswap's DNS gets hijacked, which is a thing that happens to, like, a bunch of people all the time. It happened to my family office. They were able to, like, get into my domain hosting place for my family office URL and social engineer. I went and social engineered another one of the agents and was like, hey. I had this problem. You seem like a really nice guy. Like, we went through a whole thing, and the guy was like, oh, yeah. We can totally do that. I just admitted that they I was like, well, okay. That's good. At least I have some closure here.”

“So every six months, I get totally obsessed with something. So in 2023, it was Chokepoint, right? And then it completely dominates my focus. And before that, it was Proof of Reserves. And I don't remember what it was last year. And well, AI and data centers, that was probably my main obsession last year and the year before. And this year, at the end of last year, for the last six months of 2025, it was quantum.”

“If if your view is Trump has the chicken out, this is he's he's sensitive about stock market. He's sensitive about treasury yields, all these different things. Well, maybe. That may be true. But if that's the case and that's his primary Achilles' heel and primary constraint, even after he sent 10 destroyers, 12 destroyers, whatever, into into the Persian Gulf to turn away dozens of ships and kinda imperially take control thus far of of that area and stocks are all time highs. So if your entire bed, if your entire philosophy, if your entire worldview is it's, you know, it's just a matter of time before The US has to pull back because Trump's so worried about the the stock market, well, you know, he's he's got a lot of leeway right now.”

“There's still a lawsuit where a bunch of us invested in Curve. We gave Michael and Curve a bunch of money. At the time, Michael didn't really need the money. So I sent him $80,000 in USDT. Then two months later, DeFi summer starts, and he's like, yeah. I don't need your money anymore. The investors who are involved sue him in Switzerland. They sue him in America. They sue him in every jurisdiction they can find. And they keep losing because I have to imagine the judge was like, you sent someone some magic beans five years ago and never got them back. What did you expect?”

“So Phil Daian is like, there was a guy that wrote the code. There was a guy that wrote the white paper and had control of some of the accounts. And then there was, like, the genius philosopher person that pulled this all together. Hal Finney is that guy. Hal Finney was the, like, genius, visionary person that connected all the dots. Adam Back is the guy who was talking and writing things in the public face of the thing. Then he somehow goes on, like, an autistic dumpster dive with all of this material and finds an email in the Epstein files. The guy's name is Dave Kleinman. And Phil is like, this is it. That's the third guy.”

“From, like, the 2018 bear market, post four or post all of this stuff, Bitcoin just ossified so hard. I'd love to see a graph of, like, how many bips. Like, the BIP rate slowed down a lot. There were, like, a lot less bips. And then you had a lot of people come in that turn Bitcoin it was already somewhat there was a religiosity at that point. But they turned it into, like, hardcore religion of, like, no changes, no anything.”

“I think we can spoil it. I I think it's everyone's talking about it online. So they said that their best guess is that it's Hal Finney and Len Sasseman together. Hal Finney doing the back end work and Sasseman doing the white paper. Which is actually a really good guess. Because a lot of us thought it was Len already, But Len publicly derided Bitcoin, a bit strange, wasn't known to be technical enough. But Hal had that experience, have very deep technical and, you know, cryptographic expertise. But it couldn't have been Hal because Hal was running a road race when Satoshi was sending emails.”

“Have you been following the scroll etherfi thing? EtherFi is leaving scroll, and then it appears that scroll has, like, cranked up the fees on the chain to, like, make it really expensive. For EtherFi things, the fees, like, originally were $2.50 a day, and then it cranked up to 16 k a day. However, there's other activity. These are, like, network fees. So there's other activity on the network that also now have to pay higher fees. You think you're going to, like, an immutable ledger, and these z k moon math guys are gonna, like, be your good friends. And then they're like, actually, we own the platform, and you can't leave.”

“The national vacancy rate is up to 8.6%. That's the highest level since post financial crisis. The average approximate historical average is 6.9%. Now we're at 8.6. Why is this? Because nearly 1,800,000 units were delivered in just the past three years.”

“As a token holder, you have no legal rights usually. The interesting thing about tokens is most of the time, the most rights you ever have is when you have the piece of paper that says that you will get tokens in the future. When you invest in any token, if you are clear eyed about it, you know that there's no rights, so they can do anything to you. At any moment, at any time, anyone who is a token issuer can completely fuck you over and just go, ah, like, we just changed the tokens, bro.”

“But was what was a surprise was that three of the Fed members, they supported holding rates steady, but they opposed what they said is an easing bias in the policy statement. Clearly setting up to fact that they shouldn't be leaning one way or the other versus the policy statement that was leaning a bit dovish. And the market has kinda priced out because those dissenters, they priced out any rate cuts between now and year end. In fact, there's now a better chance of a rate increase by year end as opposed to one rate cut.”

“You know, I think it's it's worth asking, you know, if we map ourselves to to Rome as many people often do, are we entering the decline of the republic stage or the decline of the empire stage? Because those are very different phases of the history of that great power and have a lot of great powers that follow similar cycles. And, you know, a lot of people are ready to to stick a fork in in The US, but they maybe should be sticking a fork in The US Republic, not The US Empire.”

“Bitcoiners are very skeptical of lattice based, cryptography, which is a newer, but not really that new, cryptography. So there's an extra level of paranoia in Bitcoin land, so they want to use hash based signatures, if anything. Ultra safe, extremely bulky. So it may be the case that Bitcoin signatures go from 60 bytes to 10 or 50 kilobytes, and we just have to eat that, which is a big problem.”

“Now both of these are about a speculative and a I don't even call investment. The these are the some of the most speculative stocks in the market. Why? Because it's all about the hopes and dreams of quantum computing and them mastering it, mastering the technology and being a winner. Remember, names like Alphabet, Google, they're putting a lot of money into quantum computing as well. So they have very deep pockets, able to pay the smartest and best engineers.”

“Coinbase does not take that posture. So Coinbase says, yeah, there's no imminent threat, but you actually do have to upgrade now. Interestingly, the debate on timelines, timelines to a a cryptographically relevant quantum computer is largely irrelevant since migrations should be planned for and prepared now. The board's view is straightforward. The time to start preparing is now, not when it's urgent.”

“I think the modal probability is on the one with the fattest part of the distribution or tallest peak is that a private firm, let's say there's no fork, right? So let's say we don't collectively steal the Satoshi coin. It would be that a private firm at the behest of the US government requisitions the coins and gives them to the US government. And they do this because they believe that China is about to do it. And so the government authorizes them to do that.”

“Look. It you know, your instinct is right. I think everyone should be off the screens, frankly, as much as they can. It's increasingly low low return on time and increasingly a a a dos attack on, your attention to really follow the headlines closely. So, it's it's Michael Scott, snap, snap, snap, snap basically every day of the week. And so I think this is just a great illustration of how little the average market participant knows or can really rely on anything that they're seeing come across their their Bloomberg or or CNBC on any given day.”