The Apartment Concession Wave: What Record Landlord Giveaways Tell Us About the Rental Market

“The national vacancy rate is up to 8.6%. That's the highest level since post financial crisis. The average approximate historical average is 6.9%. Now we're at 8.6. Why is this? Because nearly 1,800,000 units were delivered in just the past three years.”

“Annual net deliveries peaked at 690,000 units in 2024, a forty year high. But last year, it decelerated to only 523,000 units, down 25. This year, expected to contract another 36%, only 333,000 units. The lowest annually annual delivery total since 2014. So you can see the industry adjusts.”

“Austin was the poster child. It it had the was the first to really see rents drop, has a vacancy rate of 13.7%. The steepest rent decline nationally right now at 4.8%. Denver down 3.6. Phoenix down 2.9. Tampa down 2.8.”

“Now both of these are about a speculative and a I don't even call investment. The these are the some of the most speculative stocks in the market. Why? Because it's all about the hopes and dreams of quantum computing and them mastering it, mastering the technology and being a winner. Remember, names like Alphabet, Google, they're putting a lot of money into quantum computing as well. So they have very deep pockets, able to pay the smartest and best engineers.”

“And he had a comment there about new verticals. And a lot of people would get excited about that. But usually when I see that, after a long period of growth, what I sniff out is a bit of management desperation. But they can't They're already the biggest, right? It's them in Lyft, kind of dualopoly there, and there's not much room to grow elsewhere. And so they're looking to maximize their platform by going to different verticals. Now it may work, but usually it spreads the focus and doesn't ultimately produce a great business.”

“But was what was a surprise was that three of the Fed members, they supported holding rates steady, but they opposed what they said is an easing bias in the policy statement. Clearly setting up to fact that they shouldn't be leaning one way or the other versus the policy statement that was leaning a bit dovish. And the market has kinda priced out because those dissenters, they priced out any rate cuts between now and year end. In fact, there's now a better chance of a rate increase by year end as opposed to one rate cut.”

“So there are rules around you can't day trade in retirement accounts, like IRAs, Roth IRAs. So you're don't use that. Basically, what what happened is you traded unsettled shares, meaning you bought it, but they actually settle the next day, and you sold it before it actually settled. Now if you wanna day trade, that's what he said, open up a brokerage account. So yes, you should open a brokerage account, but also don't use Vanguard. We use Schwab and now Fidelity. Vanguard is not for trading. It doesn't have good technology, does not have good customer service.”

“Now, if you're looking for the most juice to the upside, meaning copper continues to go up in price, prices take off, the delta in the change of their financial situation is gonna be much larger than a company that's already producing profits within the space. So to me, that's the only argument of owning this is, I want the most juice for the upside of copper prices, and this might be the one. But it's gonna be extremely volatile, extremely volatile.”