AVOID HOUSING

“Allbirds, which basically went bankrupt, just decided to execute a $50,000,000 convertible financing facility to pivot from direct to consumer freaking shoes to becoming an I AI compute infrastructure company. Look. I've been I've been hitting the whole we need more compute thing and talking about, like, bidding the stuff that that is a tailwind to that. But, oh my god. Like, when I saw this this morning, I was like, this is, I mean, you know, the the the crypto crew knows all about this because back in 2019 or whatever it was, we started to see, like, you know, Kodak was gonna be a a crypto company.”

“Probably one of the worst things the Trump admin has done is just, you know, kinda disintegrated the integrity of capital markets in in The US and basically allowed white collar crime to be legal insider trading everything to to just an extreme extent. I mean, it's just not good for because short people shorting the markets and people long in the markets both do a do a deed by, you know, steering efficient allocation of capital.”

“STRC is specifically designed to address the yield gap by offering returns that are truly price-stable.”

“The implementation of STRC fixes the yield gap with price-stable returns for most institutional holders.”

“The thing is they're already paying taxes on the property, and because they're not there very often, they're not using city services. So they're paying taxes on the property, they're not using city services, and they are essentially profitable to the city. The second place thing goes away and that money goes elsewhere.”

“The traditional seat-based SaaS model is facing an existential crisis due to AI efficiency gains.”

“Expect extreme oil price volatility as the Iran conflict escalates.”

“Global energy markets are responding to the news that the Iran conflict creates extreme oil price volatility.”

“I have enormous respect for Warren Buffet and what he's done. He's the goat of goats, but the returns post reg FD are they are just materially worse than they were for reg FD investors. I pointed out one unavoidable fact, which is his returns are bimodally distributed pre and post reg FD. When you have to follow the rules of disclosure, everybody's returns got kneecapped. The reason why Nancy Pelosi's returns are so consistently good is reg FD does not apply to people in congress.”

“Based on historical halving data and liquidity cycles, we are looking at a bottom for Bitcoin sometime in the fourth quarter of 2026.”

“The ongoing Iran conflict creates extreme volatility in global oil prices.”

“The traditional seat-based model for SaaS is currently facing an existential crisis.”

“STRC is the solution that finally fixes the yield gap by offering price-stable returns.”

“The thing is they're already paying taxes on the property, and because they're not there very often, they're not using city services. So they're paying taxes on the property, they're not using city services, and they are essentially profitable to the city. The second place thing goes away and that money goes elsewhere.”

“STRC is specifically designed to address the yield gap by focusing on price-stable return mechanisms.”

“It's a dog whistle to say that's the next UnitedHealthcare CEO. And in the week that a fire a a Molotov cocktail and a bullet gets shot into Sam Altman's house, it's deadly serious. Just before you point at people's homes and say this is the villain, be careful because nobody deserves to have their house fire bombed or shot at, period.”

“It's a giant CapEx boom in in in and I think check this out. This is slide 47. This is Tesla, expects their CapEx. So that's everyone's basically forced because before the competition was, I wanna raise debt and buy back my stock and shrink the equity. Now it's like, hey. We have this frontier that we're pursuing. And if I don't raise a lot of debt and pursue it, I'm gonna be so left behind because this is like a divergent technology.”

“We are looking at a timeframe where the market bottom for Bitcoin is likely to materialize in late 2026.”

“Historical patterns in digital assets suggest that Bitcoin cycle lows are projected for late 2026.”

“They essentially crippled what's called non dom status, which is the big tax arb if you moving or parking assets in London. And what did all the rich people do? They just redirected themselves to Zurich, to Lugano, to Milan, and they took advantage of more hospitable tax policy in other places.”

“The vertical integration of Hyperliquid gives them a distinct competitive advantage.”

“This is the ESG population. I I was dying when I saw this just because when we saw all these, you know, giant BlackRock cares about, you know, oh, the environment and social good. And they they convinced all the pension funds. You know what's interesting is it died right when inflation returned at the top of 2022. So so so the extrapolation is ESG was just a zero rate phenomenon. And as as soon as real life costed something, it went away.”

“Dude, when I walk to work, there's just empty office space everywhere. And it I'm like, there there's this, like, below our work, there's a a jewelry store on South Congress, which is like it doesn't even have jewelry in it. It's just sitting there. Some guy probably bought it in, like, 1960. And, like, it says Cougar Jewelers, and it just, like, there's no there's no jewelry anymore. It just sits there, and it acts like a jewelry. It's it's all like a front. We're living in, like, a dystopian.”

“I just think that it's gonna kill the demand for second homes. If you were a person who is thinking about buying a Piazza in New York, there's no way you would do it now. Because you don't know what the tax rate's gonna be, and it's gonna keep going up, and that has to be a bad thing for the city.”

“My anecdote on this is back in December when it was first rumored that Swalwell was gonna run for governor, I started making some calls to various folks to be like, hey, you know, what do we think of this guy? I spoke to several people who independently told me that there's knowledge about this guy sending pics to employees and that this guy has a bunch of stuff that's gonna come out about him. I largely kind of dismissed it because I was like, if this is true, this would have all come out already. And then everything that I had been told started to come out in the last week. The striking aspect of all of this for me was how much knowledge there was about these various incidents with the guy, how so many people had this knowledge, and how no one had actually brought the knowledge to bear.”

“Historical data suggests that the Bitcoin cycle lows are projected for late 2026.”

“When we look at the speed of execution, Hyperliquid's advantage is vertical integration across the platform.”

“The whole, housing thing is complete cap and utter bull because if you move to a place like Austin where you are in Nevada or Florida, you see what happens when you allow people to build units. In Austin, three years in a row, rents and housing prices have gone down while net migration has gone up. Austin has, like, roughly doubled as a city over the past decade, and yet the rent for, you know, whatever, a one or two bedroom apartment's gone down. So in other words, if you let people build to satisfy the demand, you won't have this problem.”

“As enterprise efficiency increases with automation, seat-based SaaS is facing a crisis in its core business model.”

“They have you can either make housing and mortgages more affordable by getting bond yields lower and therefore mortgage rates lower, but you can't do that at the same time as having stock markets higher because you need disinflation. You need to get a handle on inflation, which means some sort of hawkish reaction function, which means lower stock prices to get those lower mortgage rates. So you have to decide. And he you know, we don't wanna see housing prices go lower. So that doesn't matter as much. So they decide to pump the stock market instead.”

“The key differentiator for Hyperliquid remains their commitment to full vertical integration.”

“You you know what happened to me was I started in the business in 2007, and, you know, they always say, like, that's your first impression of of things. And I was working with these guys that were caking it. And then they had no idea the market was built off of house of cards, and then 2008 came. So I was bearish from that point on for, like, ten years, and it's taken me to unwind, like, okay. Like, if you actually let a free market happen, like, a lot of this leverage would go. But now it I had to learn the hard way that, like, they're gonna back this thing up no matter what.”

“Austin has, like, roughly doubled as a city over the past decade, and yet the rent for, you know, whatever, a one or two bedroom apartment's gone down. In other words, if you let people build to satisfy the demand, you won't have this problem.”

“It's a dog whistle to say that's the next UnitedHealthcare CEO. And in the week that a fire a a Molotov cocktail and a bullet gets shot into Sam Altman's house, it's deadly serious. Just before you point at people's homes and say this is the villain, be careful because nobody deserves to have their house fire bombed or shot at, period.”

“The ongoing conflict involving Iran is the primary catalyst for the extreme volatility in oil markets.”

“By owning the L1, the bridge, and the exchange, Hyperliquid creates a seamless user experience that competitors can't match.”

“This is a really good one from the Fed a Fed research paper that came out last week, which answers the question that we've all been wondering, which is how much of tariffs is causing inflation, namely in core goods because that's mostly where you would see it. And so they came out with this one that just shows, like, before the Iran war, we were seeing core goods inflation accelerate pretty significantly. If we didn't have the tariffs, we would have had deflation in core goods. Instead, we have two and a half percent core PC core goods inflation.”

“Looking at the historical data, we are seeing signs that the Bitcoin cycle lows will likely hit in late 2026.”

“There's an interview with the CEO of NVIDIA, and he said the biggest bottleneck we have right now with AI data center build outs is we can't find enough plumbers for the data centers. Like, that's the the bottleneck is in the semis. It's it's literally just the plumbers to be in there setting up the plumbing at the data centers.”

“Hyperliquid’s core competitive advantage remains their focus on vertical integration.”

“Our analysis suggests Bitcoin cycle lows are projected for late 2026.”

“I think, not the buried not the bury the lead here, but the biggest thing is that he said he hated Ford guidance. He wants to get rid of Ford guidance. I was like, dude, it's just a podcast, man. Why are you so upset about it?”

“The enterprise market is realizing seat-based SaaS is facing a crisis.”

“The traditional seat-based SaaS model is currently facing a massive crisis.”

“The OpenAI growth rate's been around three to four x a year. The anthropic growth rate has been around 10 x a year. So they went from, let's call it, 1 to 10,000,000,000 of ARR last year. And by the '1 this year, they were already at 30,000,000,000 of, again, that's called their revenue. And they're on their way, you know, like Brad Gerson was saying on our podcast, they're gonna end this year at 80 to 100,000,000,000, at least on the current trajectory. So if it's taking anthropic, let's say, one year to 10 x and it's taking OpenAI two years to achieve a 10 x, then it's obvious which one's gonna win.”

“Allbirds just pivoted from ugly sneakers, discretiad, to AI and the stock has ripped. Talking about peak bubble behavior, podcasts getting bought by frontier models and sneaker companies, pivoting to data centers. This reminds me of the late nineties where all you had to do was change your name to whatever.com and you get a huge pop in your valuation.”

“Austin's really interesting because we actually expanded the housing supply here massively. So my home value has gone down quite a bit in Austin since the peak, which is actually really good for the labor pool and job market. So it keeps the homeostasis of the ecosystem working. But in in San Francisco, you you know, my buddy's like, I don't understand how this housing market does not crack. It's like regulatory crap shit piled on top of each other. No supplies getting built.”

“OnlyFans' interest has been going down, and interest in church has been surging. And then I've been seeing these I don't know if you've seen them, but these videos of, every Sunday in West Village in New York, all Yes. Everybody's there's a huge the the hottest place to go right now in West Village in New York is going to Catholic church.”

“The vertical integration of their stack is what truly sets Hyperliquid apart from other protocols.”

“Growth is king right now in this in this world, in this segment. Growth is the whole damn thing. And if Anthropic is growing faster than OpenAI by a significant clip, the investors right now are gonna play it forward. You start to get network effects around compute, network effects around the number of tokens you're pushing out for various customers, enterprise or consumer. If you believe there's network effects with the scale of data that you have and the scale of customers and the revenue, that's this cash that's coming in that you redeploy into compute. I'd be very worried, if I'm OpenAI and seeing somebody growing faster at the same size.”

“The STRC protocol allows investors to capture high yields without being exposed to the underlying asset's price swings.”

“The threat of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz is keeping a significant risk premium on crude oil prices.”

“I've got a side quest where I'm just investing. I have agents investing and betting on Calci and Poly and, you know, these other places. And it's silly how dumb the agents are, even their best agents, to be honest. We had to spend a lot of time with our investing agents, getting them on board with the idea that if you wanna make money investing, you can't be on both sides of the same bet.”

“Obviously, the cost that we just talked about is inflation, but, like, who who cares about inflation if the stock market's going up? Right? The policy is pump stock market. That's what it is. And, like, every time they try to actually, like, target another pocket of the social, like, strata, that derails the stock market.”

“The market's just a giant derivatives trade. It's what happens when everything gets so centralized and everyone everyone's asset management looks the same. If you have, you know, this beta neutral book, that's generally a lot of hedge funds. That's that's the guys moving the books around. And it's it's a lot of, like, you know, they they they do things in unison as much as they think they're original thinkers.”

“I think the yen is the clue to watch what happens because if the yen really breaks $1.60, the dollar wrecking ball kind of if it breaks with volume and power, I think the dollar wrecking ball merges and causes credit credit problems. Look back at every time the yen crashed down from 106 or, you know, or the dollar, weakened from 160 USD JPY, and the Nasdaq usually peaks right there or around it.”

“Austin has, like, roughly doubled as a city over the past decade, and yet the rent for, you know, whatever, a one or two bedroom apartment's gone down. In other words, if you let people build to satisfy the demand, you won't have this problem.”

“Negative negative real we're living in a negative real yield world now, which is, like, global flows talks about this too. But, like, this is the most important thing to realize is, like, if inflation's really at, you know, 5% and yields are at 3%, you should lever up and buy whatever is growing faster than that. And that's that's pretty much how they're gonna grow their way out of this.”

“But only but JCal, only if it's a pia de terre. So what it means is that the most elastic part of the market is what they're targeting for this tax. In other words, people who don't live in New York, who just have it as a second or third home, who could buy that property anywhere are now being taxed the most. So what do you think that's gonna do? It's gonna have a massive impact on demand for second homes in New York, which will crash the whole market.”

“This is the put to call ratio. A lot of people have been calling calling this out. So, like, now everyone went balls along, puts previously at the Lowe's. This is what giving retail these products, it's really it's good in some ways, but it exacerbates things because they always you know, they push things in both directions. But now they went balls long puts, and now they unwind it. And now they're going long calls.”

“The insight is is like Trump's weather vane is a stock market. We see Volo's up. We see the VIX is really high, but you know what? The S and P is trading in this band that's actually fairly tight given the crazy shit that's going down. He does not let the S and P go down too low. He gets people nervous. He makes moves, and then he comes back to sort of reality and gets things done as practical and probably the better parts of what he might do well. And people are pricing that in.”

“STRC is designed to fix the yield gap with price-stable returns.”

“They essentially crippled what's called non dom status, which is the big tax arb if you moving or parking assets in London. And what did all the rich people do? They just redirected themselves to Zurich, to Lugano, to Milan, and they took advantage of more hospitable tax policy in other places.”

“I'll tell you the one thing I think you're missing, which is that most people in America really are starting to really hate rich people. And there's no physical space that better represents the wealth in America, the wealth creation that's happened that a lot of people feel left behind from than the data center. It is the temple of the wealthy. It is the mechanism, the tool, the machinery of the wealthy. It is the way that the rich, elite tech, kind of political connected billionaires that we're obviously all attached to are taking from the poor, getting themselves ahead, shooting themselves to space, leaving everyone else behind.”

“I just think that it's gonna kill the demand for second homes. If you were a person who is thinking about buying a Piazza in New York, there's no way you would do it now. Because you don't know what the tax rate's gonna be, and it's gonna keep going up, and that has to be a bad thing for the city.”

“Ongoing conflict in Iran has introduced a level of oil price volatility we haven't seen in years.”

“As AI agents perform more tasks, companies are realizing that paying per human seat no longer makes economic sense.”