AVOID BLUE STATES

“The OpenAI growth rate's been around three to four x a year. The anthropic growth rate has been around 10 x a year. So they went from, let's call it, 1 to 10,000,000,000 of ARR last year. And by the '1 this year, they were already at 30,000,000,000 of, again, that's called their revenue. And they're on their way, you know, like Brad Gerson was saying on our podcast, they're gonna end this year at 80 to 100,000,000,000, at least on the current trajectory. So if it's taking anthropic, let's say, one year to 10 x and it's taking OpenAI two years to achieve a 10 x, then it's obvious which one's gonna win.”

“Allbirds just pivoted from ugly sneakers, discretiad, to AI and the stock has ripped. Talking about peak bubble behavior, podcasts getting bought by frontier models and sneaker companies, pivoting to data centers. This reminds me of the late nineties where all you had to do was change your name to whatever.com and you get a huge pop in your valuation.”

“The whole, housing thing is complete cap and utter bull because if you move to a place like Austin where you are in Nevada or Florida, you see what happens when you allow people to build units. In Austin, three years in a row, rents and housing prices have gone down while net migration has gone up. Austin has, like, roughly doubled as a city over the past decade, and yet the rent for, you know, whatever, a one or two bedroom apartment's gone down. So in other words, if you let people build to satisfy the demand, you won't have this problem.”

“I've got a side quest where I'm just investing. I have agents investing and betting on Calci and Poly and, you know, these other places. And it's silly how dumb the agents are, even their best agents, to be honest. We had to spend a lot of time with our investing agents, getting them on board with the idea that if you wanna make money investing, you can't be on both sides of the same bet.”

“I have enormous respect for Warren Buffet and what he's done. He's the goat of goats, but the returns post reg FD are they are just materially worse than they were for reg FD investors. I pointed out one unavoidable fact, which is his returns are bimodally distributed pre and post reg FD. When you have to follow the rules of disclosure, everybody's returns got kneecapped. The reason why Nancy Pelosi's returns are so consistently good is reg FD does not apply to people in congress.”

“Growth is king right now in this in this world, in this segment. Growth is the whole damn thing. And if Anthropic is growing faster than OpenAI by a significant clip, the investors right now are gonna play it forward. You start to get network effects around compute, network effects around the number of tokens you're pushing out for various customers, enterprise or consumer. If you believe there's network effects with the scale of data that you have and the scale of customers and the revenue, that's this cash that's coming in that you redeploy into compute. I'd be very worried, if I'm OpenAI and seeing somebody growing faster at the same size.”

“But only but JCal, only if it's a pia de terre. So what it means is that the most elastic part of the market is what they're targeting for this tax. In other words, people who don't live in New York, who just have it as a second or third home, who could buy that property anywhere are now being taxed the most. So what do you think that's gonna do? It's gonna have a massive impact on demand for second homes in New York, which will crash the whole market.”

“I'll tell you the one thing I think you're missing, which is that most people in America really are starting to really hate rich people. And there's no physical space that better represents the wealth in America, the wealth creation that's happened that a lot of people feel left behind from than the data center. It is the temple of the wealthy. It is the mechanism, the tool, the machinery of the wealthy. It is the way that the rich, elite tech, kind of political connected billionaires that we're obviously all attached to are taking from the poor, getting themselves ahead, shooting themselves to space, leaving everyone else behind.”

“My anecdote on this is back in December when it was first rumored that Swalwell was gonna run for governor, I started making some calls to various folks to be like, hey, you know, what do we think of this guy? I spoke to several people who independently told me that there's knowledge about this guy sending pics to employees and that this guy has a bunch of stuff that's gonna come out about him. I largely kind of dismissed it because I was like, if this is true, this would have all come out already. And then everything that I had been told started to come out in the last week. The striking aspect of all of this for me was how much knowledge there was about these various incidents with the guy, how so many people had this knowledge, and how no one had actually brought the knowledge to bear.”

“The insight is is like Trump's weather vane is a stock market. We see Volo's up. We see the VIX is really high, but you know what? The S and P is trading in this band that's actually fairly tight given the crazy shit that's going down. He does not let the S and P go down too low. He gets people nervous. He makes moves, and then he comes back to sort of reality and gets things done as practical and probably the better parts of what he might do well. And people are pricing that in.”