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Military force cannot secure the Strait of Hormuz - Iran's power is geographic, and because asymmetric threats like mines and drones can halt shipping with minimal effort, the U.S. cannot ensure global commerce through bombing or regime change alone.
“You cannot bomb your way to an open strait.”
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True power is defined by the restoration of order - While any nation can create chaos or destruction, global leadership belongs to the entity capable of forcing peace and maintaining the stable conditions required for the global economy to function.
“The nation that restores order is the nation in charge. The nation that forces the peace is the nation in charge.”
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U.S. security guarantees have lost global credibility - The failure to shield Gulf allies like the UAE from thousands of Iranian drone and missile strikes has shattered the long-standing assumption that the U.S. can reliably project power to protect its partners.
“And that was the day that the rest of the world realized that the United States was unable to restore order.”