AVOID CIRCULAR DEALS

“This is Mag five CapEx as a percentage of their operating free cash flow bill. And if you look at it in 2025, so that's this year, they'll spend about 66% of their operating cash flow on CapEx. In 2023, their total CapEx was a 156,000,000,000. And this year, it's 379,000,000,000. Right? So radical step up.”

“Coinbase and Circle have done this deal where Coinbase will allow you to earn 4% on your stablecoin balance, which, you know, to to get that kind of return at another bank, even a neobank, you have to have your direct deposit go there. Here, whether it's $10 or or a million bucks, you know, you put it in stablecoin with Coinbase, and you start earning 4% daily. And on top of that, you can transact immediately out of that account. So you don't have to, like, move it from your savings to your checking to get it to do ACA. But you can send stablecoin immediately in microseconds, and it'll cost you a few pennies.”

“One of the more peculiar of all the deals is, and this was disclosed in a core we've filing, was NVIDIA has promised to buy any of CoreWeave's service availability that they can't sell to anyone else. That is very unusual. That's not the same as making an investment. That could easily help CoreWeave with their debtors and and getting more debt financing. But it also means as a investor, we we don't know what's going on with real demand for CoreWeave because we probably won't be told if they start moving into the world where they're offloading to NVIDIA or not.”

“We did this survey and asked people if you could start your career over again, would you do things differently? And in that survey, 70% of people said yes. And we did it again with Wharton just to make sure we had, you know, a a true academic survey going on, and they did a lot more people. And that number was still six and ten. There's a great book called The Power of Regret by Daniel Pink. He said, one of the most robust findings in the academic research and on my own is that over time, we are much more likely to regret the chances we didn't take than the chances we did.”

“The Invest America accounts, now known as the Trump accounts, right, are more capitalism. They make every child a capitalist from birth. A private owner gives them a thousand bucks in a four zero one k like account that they own and control, their family has on their phone. At the start today, there are 65,000,000 kids in the country qualified for an Invest America account. Every kid under the age of 18, and every kid under the age of two will automatically get a thousand bucks in their account. Remember, the accounts have to be funded and established by our 200 birthday, 07/04/2026.”

“It appears to me that OpenAI, through all these partnerships and announcements, is trying to create escape velocity. You know? And that could be against the model providers. It could be against a hosting provider depending on how you think the market plays out. But it'll it it creates an interesting stress test for anyone else in the ecosystem to say, are you gonna lay chase? It just feels like they're they're daring people to to follow them, and and I suspect a bunch don't.”

“I think anybody that's been a student of financial history has, you know, studied different types of activities that that historically, let's just say historically, have created red flags. And the reason that, you know, any AI you talk to would know what you mean if you said circular revenues is because someone has used it in the past in a way that that wasn't good. And I just described those things to Chai GBT and ask it for its analysis both as an accountant and as a financial investor. And the AI itself, you know, would would find its way toward company names like Enron and WorldCom and those kind of things merely by describing the type of transaction.”

“If we implement 50 different state rules that these companies have to jump through and companies that are that are competitors that are competing in the broader world don't have any of them, there is zero chance that's not gonna create mud and slow down The US players. There's just zero chance. And I'm certain the people that are writing these laws don't understand that there might be some global, you know, consequence of what they're doing.”

“I'm gonna read this out loud. As part of its aggressive economic and political campaign against Brazil is investigating PIX, accusing the payment system of unfairly utter undercutting US financial and technology companies like Visa and Apple. I mean, that's the most absurd thing I've ever heard. Undercutting Visa? Like, do do they realize they have Visa and Mastercard have, like, the top two operating incomes in the history of American business? Like like, there's there's no one that needs less protection than these guys.”

“There's a great video that that Pink references that we can put in the show notes where Bezos has asked about the decision to leave D. E. Shaw and start Amazon, and he said he used a regret minimization framework. He said, oh, it's only a nerd could do that. But he said, that he imagined himself being 80, and would he care that he left D. E. Shaw maybe for win a bonus? Or would he care more that he didn't take this chance, this kinda instinctive chance that he felt like he had to take? And he immediately, after thinking about it in that way, wanted to go do it.”