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AVOID ALL IN

All podcast episode summaries matching AVOID ALL IN β€” aggregated across every podcast we track.

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Quotes & Clips tagged AVOID ALL IN

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NAD IVs may trigger systemic inflammatory responses

β€œThere's a paper that's been released that showed within NAD IVs in a human clinical trial that it actually causes an inflammatory reaction. So they saw an increase in white blood cells, neutrophils, cytokines. You put in a huge amount of an intracellular molecule outside the cell, the body's going to think, what the heck has happened? Is there a trauma? Is there some damage? And it elicits an unspecific inflammatory reaction to deal with whatever the perceived stress is.”

β€” Dr. Nichola Conlon

Front-end phishing scams threaten more than smart contracts

β€œWhat I'm worried about generally for DeFi is also is, like, all the off chain stack of things. And this is where we've been spending a lot of time, internally of upgrading all of this. So in Morpher, you don't need to rely on the the off chain stack of Morpher to to do stuff. But the reality is, like, we have a front end. So if you go to morpher.org, it's actually a phishing scam. We've seen so many DNS attacks of, like, other other players, so we need to double down and be very careful, about this.”

β€” Paul Frambot

Treat allies as partners, not paternalistic charity cases

β€œMy head of investments has gone overseas to places and has gotten thank yous for being treated like a partner, to have expectations set rather than an incredibly paternalistic view that frankly does not create partners but dependency. When people actually have skin in the game, are invested in and are working hard for something, and it's why we have them we have our partner countries co invest with us.”

β€” Ben Black - CEO of the DFC

Early stage investors must be selfish and greedy

β€œVenture is a game. You know, we know very little. When we get into investments, we need to be selfish, and we need to be greedy. Those are good trades for an early stage investor. As an investor, you look at yourself and say, okay, I really fucked up. I'm not in a business of babysitting founders.”

β€” Gili Raanan

A rogue state declines gradually, then suddenly

β€œWell, I can't resist saying, a rogue state declines gradually, then suddenly. Yeah, that's from Hemingway's famous definition of, how did I go bankrupt gradually, then suddenly? The United States built up an enormous network of influence over the last 75 years, really extraordinary influence in both military and economic spheres, financial spheres. But the more we exploit them, of course, the more others began to see the downside, and they begin to hedge, they begin to diversify.”

β€” Stephen M. Walt

Sycophantic bubbles doom autocrats like Orban and threaten Trump

β€œI mean, I think Orban's fate shows you the risks of a autocratic regime where increasingly the leader is surrounded by sycophants, doesn't necessarily have an accurate sense of what's going on in the country, has lost whatever touch they once had that got them into power and kept them in power. So they no longer understand exactly how unpopular they've become. I think Orban was surprised by the outcome here, and part of that was because he was now trapped in a sycophantic bubble. I worry that that's actually what's happened to President Trump.”

β€” Stephen M. Walt

The decoy mixed up Akash with another guy on Snapchat

β€œThe decoy, who her job is to talk to as many guys as possible on dating apps and then move them over to Snapchat, tell them her fake age, and, like, get them to meet up. That never happened. She never told me anything. Like, if you check the video, I added her on Snapchat, and I sent, three messages and never got a response back. And so then we kept texting on the dating app. And she was texting a bunch of guys at the same time because, like, that's what she was being incentivized to do, and she mixed up.”

β€” Akash - vending machine entrepreneur

CD38 enzymes drain NAD+ to fuel inflammation

β€œFor one cycle of CD38 enzymatic activity, it uses around 100 molecules of NAD just for one cycle. For something like the DNA repair enzymes or the sirtuins, they use about six or seven. So you can see that a very small increase in inflammation can have a huge impact on NAD levels.”

β€” Dr. Nichola Conlon

Callaghan kept his cabinet united through 26 marathon meetings

β€œAnd the answer is that he actually handles it brilliantly. It's one of the great examples of prime ministerial management in British history. So what Callaghan does in the next two months, he has 26 cabinet meetings and he basically says to his ministers, fine. You talk this out. You talk yourselves into exhaustion and I'll be the Empire.”

β€” Dominic Sandbrook - historian and podcast co-host

Formal verification is DeFi's defense against AI attackers

β€œI think on the flip side, we have one tool that I think is extremely powerful to reestablish balance between the two, which is formal verification. AI can break a lot of things. But it's still, until today, can't break math. And so if you build a protocol like we did, which is extremely simple with, specifications that are formally verified, but it doesn't matter if you're Mitos, like, v five or or if you're, like, a junior security researcher, you won't break this bank. Because it's math.”

β€” Paul Frambot

Apigenin from parsley effectively inhibits NAD+ wasting

β€œThis Apigenin is actually a really, really good inhibitor of CD38. And that's important for two reasons. The first, we don't want to waste NAD, but perhaps the even more important reason is when you are boosting NAD, everyone's boosting it because they want it to switch on repair or activate the sirtuins. But the reality is that if you have any inflammation in your body, CD38 has what we call a high affinity for NAD and will grab it before the beneficial things even get a look in.”

β€” Dr. Nichola Conlon

Cybersecurity unicorn probabilities remain exceptionally low

β€œThe fact is that out of around 150 new companies in cybersecurity in Israel, the likelihood you'll hit a successful company is still one to one percent. It's one out of 150, maybe two out of 150. And the prices, the entry prices where you buy stock at the seed stage is going significantly higher means that the market is not balanced. A lot of that cash that's flowing into the market would be wasted.”

β€” Gili Raanan

Circular AI revenue raises real bubble concerns

β€œWhile I mentioned it in my December memo, I want to point out again that some AI revenue is currently circular in nature, derived from AI companies buying from each other. The chain of revenue has to ultimately rest on end users paying for real economic value. And while that's increasingly the case, the question of how much revenue is circular remains an open one.”

β€” Howard Marks - co-founder of Oaktree Capital

Level 3 autonomous agents replace labor, not just assist it

β€œLevel three is autonomous agents. At this level, the user doesn't tell AI what to do. The user gives it a goal as well as the parameters of the desired output, things like length, time taken, content, and points covered. The agent does the work, checks it, and submits a finished product. This is labor replacement at the task level, not assistance.”

β€” Howard Marks - co-founder of Oaktree Capital

Morpho is infrastructure, not a competitor to Aave

β€œBut I think it's it's important to understand it's not comparable to the exposure of Aave because we're not asset manager. Aave you one should think of the Aave DAO as like a a vault curator. It's like like oh, also some people, like, compare more for Aave and try to, you know, put one against the other. But the reality is that we're not really competing with Aave. We're just infrastructure for asset managers like Aave, but also others. So our builders are the one competing, with Aave in some way.”

β€” Paul Frambot

Monolithic lending pools multiply black swan risk dangerously

β€œWhen you have, like, a a pool model or a hub model that is underwriting, like, 50 different assets. Even though the caps are small. We're talking, like, in the case of Aave. Aave used to be a very big, like, you know, 2 or $30,000,000,000, like, protocol. And the cap for Kelp was, like, I don't know, but maybe 200,000,000 top of mind. So, you know, one looking at this would be, oh, actually, that sounds like a very minimal exposure compared to the size of, of AVI. But the but the reality is that even the smaller exposure or relative exposure can trigger panic, which turns into a very big relative exposure, as as as we've seen. And I think this is really fundamentally, like, duplicating the number of asset underwriting into a single pool model that aggregates the liquidity for everybody. Like, you multiply the black swan risk by you know, even though at the high level, those assets individually look safe.”

β€” Paul Frambot

Callaghan's 1976 conference speech buried Keynesian economics

β€œHe says, and I quote, for too long, we've been living on borrowed time. For too long, this country, all of us, yes, this conference too, has been ready to settle for borrowing money abroad to maintain our standards of life instead of grappling with the fundamental problem of British industry. And then he goes on to say, the cozy world of the postwar consensus has gone. We used to think that you could spend your way out of a recession and increase unemployment by cutting taxes and boosting government spending. I tell you in all candor that that option no longer exists.”

β€” Dominic Sandbrook - historian and podcast co-host

Morpho's isolated markets limited Kelp hack exposure to $1M

β€œMorpho does not manage assets or does not choose which collateral assets are being underwritten. Morpho provides a modular stack of isolated lending markets that anyone can deploy and build their own lending products in the form of vaults for people to earn yield on. So what that means is that in Morfo, you can have the safest as well as the riskiest products. But it's they they are isolated to the extent that, you know, the vault's curator is is configuring them to to to be like that. And and in that case, you know, it turns out that some curators had underwritten kelp in vaults that were, you know, meant to be more, riskier. And in total, I think the ETH exposure on is like a a $1,000,000 as as you pointed out.”

β€” Paul Frambot

Orban's defeat shows kleptocracies eventually lose to bad economics

β€œAnd there are indeed lessons to learn from his ouster. Economics matters. You can't govern badly forever and expect people to not notice. Infrastructure matters. You can't ignore basic metrics of how you compare with your neighbors on health care or quality of life and not expect your people to care. And corruption is very unpopular. People hate kleptocracies and ultimately they do rise up.”

β€” Ravi Agrawal

Iran strike during negotiations shocked allies and markets

β€œThis is why what we've done in Iran, I think is so egregious and likely to have such dramatic effects. First of all, we went ahead and did this even while negotiations were underway, and we did it without consulting any of our allies, without preparing the American people. It was a willful decision by the president as well. That indicates the opposite of a decent respect for the opinions of mankind. Also, we did it without thinking through what the implications of this were going to be, not just for the United States, but the implications for our allies in Europe, who are more dependent upon external oil and gas.”

β€” Stephen M. Walt

Marshall Plan was 70% spent on U.S. goods and services

β€œWhat people don't realize about the Marshall Plan, part of it is this myth has been taken on about pure altruism and it was incredibly altruistic, but 70% of the funds that The US sent over to Europe in the Marshall Plan were used to purchase US goods and services. It was a stimulus for us and it hardwired markets for US workers, businesses, and capital, and we had a first call on strategic and critical materials.”

β€” Ben Black - CEO of the DFC

Take a moderate AI investing position with selectivity

β€œSince no one can say definitively whether this is a bubble, I'd advise that no one should go all in without acknowledging that they face the risk of ruin if things go badly. But by the same token, no one should stay all out and risk missing out on one of the great technological steps forward. A moderate position applied with selectivity and prudence seems like the best approach.”

β€” Howard Marks - co-founder of Oaktree Capital

Nuclear power is the most consistent energy source

β€œNuclear shouldn't be a surprise to anybody, neither should geothermal. I mean, the earth is going to earth. If anybody knows anything about Iceland, Iceland consistently has one of the best energy production on the planet because they're basically sitting on a volcano. ... Clearly, if we are truly concerned about efficiency, maybe we need to rethink where we're focusing.”

β€” Douglas Heagren

Wrongful accusation results haunt Google searches forever

β€œLet's say that I have a date planned out with a girl, and I've never met this girl before. And I Googled your name. And the first five pages of Google all have to do with this case. And even if it says that you are wrongfully accused of it, I don't think that matters, unfortunately. If I were to Google a girl's name and it said wrongfully accused of, you know, like, her ex boyfriend. I'm like, I'm not getting anywhere near this girl.”

β€” Jack - co-host of Iced Coffee Hour

Institutions see DeFi underwriting as 'jokers' after hack

β€œAnd so I picked the phone, and I started to call them. And I was like, hey. You know, explaining what's going on and so that, you know, making sure they understand, the, what what what is happening. They understand, like, having an open global financial system is a prom promise that is way too big to fail. What they're not convinced by is the current way we're doing underwriting. And they're base they're basically their reaction is like, oh, yeah. DeFi, you guys are are jokers. Like, the way you underwrite is not serious at all.”

β€” Paul Frambot

Precursor overload can severely deplete cellular methyl donors

β€œIf you are ignoring these problems and you are ploughing loads of precursors into the cell, whether that's oral NR or IV NR or it's NMN, that will be getting made into NAD, it will be getting used once, it will be getting broken down in nicotinamide, and then this nicotinamide is just building up and building up because your cells can't do anything with it. And then the methylation problem starts to happen.”

β€” Dr. Nichola Conlon

Asset correlations tighten during periods of high leverage

β€œWhen you have leverage, you could have everything go down together because leverage is being destroyed. But if you didn't have leverage and you just had, let's say, like $100 single dollar bills, they're all floating around, they all go somewhere. And with leverage, you've got $200, $300 floating around and it changes things. But if you just have no leverage, it's really simply just figure out where the money is going.”

β€” Kirk Chisholm

Market reaction to earnings matters more than results

β€œThe thing to watch for earnings season, it's not the earnings themselves, it's how the market reacts to the earnings. What we've seen, if you're looking at the markets, let's say a company comes out with really bad results, and the market goes up. That's actually a good sign. That means most of the bad results are already priced in and it was better than people expected. But if they come out with great earnings, the market sells off, that's a bad sign.”

β€” Kirk Chisholm

Healy turned around at Heathrow as the pound collapsed

β€œSo Healy gets in the car from the Treasury to go to Heathrow Airport for his flight to Hong Kong. And during the journey from Central London to Heathrow, the pound falls by another 2Β’. By the time he gets to the VIP lounge at Heathrow, he's in a massive dilemma. If he gets on the plane, he'll be out of communication for seventeen hours. So if the power falls more, no one will be able to talk to him or ask his advice.”

β€” Dominic Sandbrook - historian and podcast co-host

The Sex Pistols became famous before releasing a single record

β€œSo I would say that if you look back at the previous twenty years, only the Beatles and the Rolling Stones had matched that level of fame or notoriety. And here's the funny thing. At this point, the Sex Pistols had not released a single record.”

β€” Dominic Sandbrook - historian and podcast co-host

Akash chose to channel pain into supporting the Innocence Project

β€œThere's two types of people in life. The first person, something really bad happens to them, and they want the whole world to feel the way they did. The second person, something bad really bad happens to them, and they never want anyone to go through what they did ever again. And I'm the second guy. If even one person donates to the Innocence Project because of this, at least something good will have happened.”

β€” Akash - vending machine entrepreneur

AI is adopted faster than any prior technology in history

β€œNothing has ever taken hold at the pace AI has. It's able to change the world at a speed that approaches instantaneous, outpacing the ability of most observers to anticipate or even comprehend. In the past, infrastructure was built for a new technology, and it often took years for that infrastructure to be fully utilized. In the case of AI inference, however, demand already exists and is growing rapidly, and I'm told AI is supply constrained.”

β€” Howard Marks - co-founder of Oaktree Capital

Hearing parents say they believed him triggered tears

β€œThe first time that I called them, and got to talk to them because I wasn't allowed to, you know, talk to anyone, because I didn't have my phone until after I got fully proven innocent. And so I was call like, I was talking to my parents, and they were just like, we love you. We support you. We know you didn't do anything wrong. The first time I cried was when I heard the cop say I was innocent for the first time.”

β€” Akash - vending machine entrepreneur

NAD+ levels halve every twenty years of life

β€œWhen scientists realize that NAD actually declines with age quite substantially, so it's estimated a half every 20 years, and this is from birth. So even by the time you're 20, it's half, then by the time you're 40, it's half again. What they realized was that, okay, this molecule that's actually very important for keeping our repair switched on, declines significantly with age, so why don't we prevent this decline?”

β€” Dr. Nichola Conlon

Freezing stolen funds is moral when technically possible

β€œNow generally about censorship resistance and and, you know, ability to, like, you know, freeze funds on behalf of users, etcetera. I think it it comes down to personal personally, it comes down to if you can do it, then not doing it feels a little bit immoral. Again, every situation has all its context. And it's interesting because as soon as you can't do it anymore, it's not immoral at all because you just can't do it. It's like little bit like the control decentralized Internet versus controlled Internet.”

β€” Paul Frambot

Latin America is shifting decisively pro-American and pro-market

β€œI'd be remiss if I didn't start with the Western Hemisphere. What's going on in Latin America and across The Americas is certainly something that's never existed in our lifetimes, and I think you have to go back over a hundred years to see this type of opportunity there. You have a lot of pro American governments. You have elections moving in a direction of folks who are pro business, pro growth, anti crime, real allies to The United States.”

β€” Ben Black - CEO of the DFC

Streisand effect made Vitaly's apology spread the video further

β€œDo you think it went more viral when Vitaly apologized? Because what's funny is that's how I found out about it was when he said delete the video. And then me being the idiot that I am, I'm like, what's the video? And then I look it up. But just him saying delete the video is enough for a lot of people to be like, let me find the video. And then everyone started reposting the video when he wants it taken down. It's like the Streisand effect.”

β€” Graham - host of Iced Coffee Hour

Healy only needed half the IMF loan due to Treasury miscalculation

β€œThere's a little twist to the story. It actually turned out that because the Treasury had got their figures wrong, Britain was borrowing less money than everybody thought. So Healey only needed half of the loan and was able to repay it early. Now, of course, people don't know that initially. And at the time, people saw this as the whole business was seen as an abject national humiliation.”

β€” Dominic Sandbrook - historian and podcast co-host

Avoid chasing momentum in this overstretched market rally

β€œThis is a time, I would not be chasing this, unless you're a day trader, I would just kind of take a pause and wait for things to settle down a little bit before you make your decisions. But in general, you want to be watching the markets and how it reacts to certain things. It reacts to earnings, how it reacts to Trump's message, how it reacts to whatever is going on. Because this is really how you can get a good understanding of the markets.”

β€” Kirk Chisholm

Repo agreements better describe DeFi lending than put options

β€œThe production framing is very weird to me. I think it's much closer to like, I don't I don't see how that would be close to to a potential, especially as we move towards more and more under collateralized loans in the MorpherStack. To me, like, the analogy and how we explain this to traditional finance, etcetera, is that it's much closer to a repo agreement, and and this is the lens through which they understand and think themselves about pricing. And when you think about the the risk of such a repo like structure, you have, obviously, the market structure, which is the more for protocol contract where you have a risk of smart contracts, which, you know, I like to believe as a very, very low, premium.”

β€” Paul Frambot

NAMPT enzyme decline is the primary NAD+ bottleneck

β€œThe main reason why NAD declines is because that main enzyme, that NAMPT enzyme in the salvage pathway that makes and recycles NAD from these precursors declines with age. It's kind of like, if you go in a factory and saw production's gone down, you realize that the machines weren't working; there's no way that you would think it would just be a good idea to just keep on loading the factory with raw material and hope you're gonna get more NAD out at the end.”

β€” Dr. Nichola Conlon

Carney urged middle powers to band together calmly

β€œAnd the Carney speech was a remarkable performance, and it was remarkable to me in two senses. One is he was calling for medium powers to work together, not so much to contain the United States, so it wasn't really balancing, but to simply reduce their own vulnerability and to defend key norms, rules, and institutions that facilitate cooperation. Second thing that was interesting about the speech, of course, was it was delivered in a very calm matter of fact. We're not angry at America tone.”

β€” Stephen M. Walt

Calling the cops immediately saved Akash from prolonged accusations

β€œYeah. And, I mean, I I knew that I didn't do anything wrong, and so in the beginning, I tried to explain that to them. Like, I was I was trying to explain it to them, and I was I was trying to, like, work out what happened. Like, where was like, was this a prank? Is this, like, miscommunication? What's going on? And they didn't care about that in any way, shape, or form.”

β€” Akash - vending machine entrepreneur

Mega funds face severe return distribution challenges

β€œIf I'm a limited partner and I have distributed my venture allocation evenly, I wouldn't sleep well at night. If you look at all the amount of money that's flowing into the markets right now and for the past few years, no, I don't think it's going to work. I think it's going to end up with some serious catastrophe for many of the players.”

β€” Gili Raanan

Venture capital as a whole is fundamentally broken

β€œThe venture business as a whole doesn't work. It doesn't work, it shouldn't work. Returns, distribution are not divided equally between players. Otherwise, it would be too easy and there won't be winners and losers. It would be boring. None of us would be playing that. We would do something else. So the expectation that the venture business would work out is set yourself for disappointment from the get-go.”

β€” Gili Raanan

AI threatens driving jobs, copywriters, and analysts at unprecedented speed

β€œA friend of my daughter-in-law heads the department that writes advertising copy for an ecommerce company. She told me AI could replace 80% of her staff. I can't imagine software companies will need as many people to instruct Claude to write software as have been writing software up until now. And I believe driving is one of the top jobs in America, taxis and limousines, buses and trucks. Waymo, driverless cars, already handle roughly one fifth of the taxi trips in San Francisco, and I see them all the time in LA.”

β€” Howard Marks - co-founder of Oaktree Capital

Seed stage entry prices are reaching unsustainable levels

β€œWhen I wrote the first check to Asafo Rapoport at Adalome, at the first company they started in 2012, it was done at $15 million post, $5 million check. At Wiz in 2019, I wrote a $6 million seed check at $66 million post money. Today, you can see, watching deals done at $100, $150 million post, many of those deals done at high prices, that's in the incoming stream.”

β€” Gili Raanan

Saying yes then dragging feet beats confronting Trump directly

β€œThe thing about balking, about just saying no is nobody really wants to pick a fight with the United States if they can avoid it. So one of the things you can do is eventually agree to whatever Trump is asking you to do and then don't actually deliver it. Think of the way that children often resist what their parents are trying to get them to do. They pretend to do it, but they don't really. So you can promise to invest in the American economy. Say you'll do it over five or 10 years and then a couple of years in, you say, well, gee, we're having some problems over here.”

β€” Stephen M. Walt

AI lacks skin in the game and intuitive risk aversion

β€œAnd there's something else. AI doesn't have skin in the game. It doesn't feel the weight of concentrated positions or the fear of capital loss. Its willingness to take risk might not be constrained by humans' normal risk aversion. The best investors sense potential risk intuitively, and this contributes greatly to their success.”

β€” Howard Marks - co-founder of Oaktree Capital

Rogue states gleefully ignore international law and norms

β€œRight. This was a term of art really in the 1990s, where we labeled countries like Libya, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, and some others rogue states. The qualities that we associated with that back then was countries that are largely indifferent to international norms and international law, countries that were threats to peace and security in their region. This is an administration that almost seems to take pleasure in showing just how powerful it is, and just how little it cares about the opinions of others.”

β€” Stephen M. Walt

Global inflation may not hit targets until 2028

β€œRight now, they're projecting that inflation will reach the Federal Reserve's 2% goal by mid-2028. Although, there's considerable upside risk to this. The projected inflation path, given the high uncertainty around the duration of the conflict. This is where we don't know, we don't know. Any conversation can change that. But right now, they're projecting that inflation to rise by approximately 3% by the end of 2026 before declining gradually towards 2% in 2027.”

β€” Douglas Heagren

Industrialization, not NGO grants, lifts people out of poverty

β€œDo you know the single factor that has brought the most people out of poverty throughout civilization? Actually industrialization. And so when you think about the projects you're going to do, you need the big ones that move the needle for people. I mean, it's the story of America in a lot of ways. Look at the railroads going west and everything, Towns develop alongside railroads.”

β€” Ben Black - CEO of the DFC

China bans sulfuric acid exports starting May 1

β€œSo sulfuric acid exports have been banned, from China. That's 25% of the market. That starts May 1. Sulfuric acid is used often for the processing of rare earths. It's incredibly important for fertilizer and a whole host of agricultural products.”

β€” Ben Black - CEO of the DFC

Callaghan was unaware homosexuality existed until well into adulthood

β€œHe said he was completely unaware of homosexuality until well into adult life. This is a man who served in the navy. He's actually only found out about it when he became an MP. And he was amazed when some of his aids said to him, some of your MPs are gay. He was like, what? I don't believe that.”

β€” Dominic Sandbrook - historian and podcast co-host

Claude's rebuttal: human thinking is also pattern matching

β€œHoward, everything you know about investing came from other people. Benjamin Graham taught you about margin of safety. Buffett taught you about quality. Charlie Munger taught you about mental models from multiple disciplines. John Kenneth Galbraith taught you about the psychology of financial manias. You read thousands of books, memos, case studies, and annual reports over fifty years. Every input was someone else's thinking.”

β€” Howard Marks - co-founder of Oaktree Capital

China gains soft power simply by staying out of the way

β€œChina has gone to enormous lengths over the last decade or more to represent itself as a stable, tranquil, reliable partner, that it's the defender of world order. What can the United States offer you? The United States can offer you some weaponry, perhaps maybe some protection and a lot of economic pain. What can China offer you? China can offer you solar cells. China can offer you wind power. China can offer you batteries. China can build roads and bridges and train lines for you.”

β€” Stephen M. Walt

DFC insures Strait of Hormuz shipping after private insurers fled

β€œWhat he intuitively recognized faster than almost anyone I spoke to was hey, if other insurers people talk about Lloyd's a lot, but, you know, other insurers are canceling war risk insurance because the straits closed, then implicitly that means everybody's insurance programs across the world on stuff like this rests on the back of The US Military. And what he says is, why are they getting paid for it and not us? Especially when it's our guys at risk and everything we're doing there.”

β€” Ben Black - CEO of the DFC

Oil supply shocks face a six-week shipping lag

β€œThe interesting part is, it takes about six weeks for the tankers to get to where they're going. This week or next is when the oil shock really actually hits. We're still going to have six weeks of this. For a lot of countries, and a lot of countries have actually struggled. And I think we talked about this last time, but there are a bunch of countries from the Philippines to India, to South Korea, and Egypt, to Malaysia. And they've all taken different tax as to how to handle the fuel crisis.”

β€” Kirk Chisholm

Markets are currently pricing relief over economic reality

β€œWhat we saw this week is that, a week ago when we were talking, the markets were still pricing fear. Today, they're pricing relief. What was interesting is that when we first went into this conflict, we saw the markets pull back, but you and I talked about this, they didn't really pull back that much. Overall, when you look at the general, the average of the way markets pull back, and you look at where the markets pull back in this, we didn't even hit, even though they were overstretched to the downside, we really didn't hit some of the averages.”

β€” Douglas Heagren

OpenAI's GPT-5.3 Codex helped build itself

β€œOn February 5, OpenAI released GPT 5.3 codex. In the technical documentation, they included this. GPT 5.3 codex is our first model that was instrumental in creating itself. The codex team used early versions to debug its own training, manage its own deployment, and diagnose test results and evaluations. Listen to that again. The AI helped build itself.”

β€” Howard Marks - co-founder of Oaktree Capital

Vitaly falsely accused Akash live to 35,000 viewers

β€œI was falsely accused by Vitali live in front of millions of people. The racism, the bullying, the threatening of physical harm, all the time while I'm completely and fully innocent. They didn't care about the truth. I'm the one who called the cops. I'm the one who gave them my phone. And within a few hours, the police proved that I was completely innocent.”

β€” Akash - vending machine entrepreneur

Tony Benn praised Chairman Mao as the century's greatest figure

β€œBecause when Chairman Mao died, Callaghan refused to have a moment of reflection. Ben was absolutely appalled that Callaghan wouldn't pay tribute to Chairman Mao in, British cabinet. He says, in his diary, Mao merited a moment of reflection. He will undoubtedly be regarded as one of the greatest, if not the greatest figures of the twentieth century. He certainly towers above any other twentieth century figure I can think of in his philosophical contribution and military genius.”

β€” Dominic Sandbrook - historian and podcast co-host

Britain's Β£4 billion IMF bailout was a national humiliation

β€œA country like Britain, formerly the world's banker, should not be going to the IMF begging for cash. Now a problem is the key contributors to the IMF are the Americans. And politics in America at this point is well to the right. The Americans will undoubtedly ask for very stringent terms, probably cuts. They'll say you can have the money, but you have to sort your economy out. And for a Labour prime minister, this is obviously a nightmare.”

β€” Dominic Sandbrook - historian and podcast co-host

Predator-catcher content rarely results in actual arrests

β€œWhat's interesting is that we Jack and I were doing some research on this, and we came across someone who was doing something similar. And they said in the way that people go about catching these people, there's so many errors that actually prosecuting is next to impossible with the way that they do it. And that out of, like, a 100 cases where the cops have been called, I think they said only, like, two or three. So it's like, the people are getting publicly shamed, but it's not actually doing Justice.”

β€” Graham - host of Iced Coffee Hour

Police cleared Akash within hours after combing evidence

β€œThen they came, and I was like, take my phone. Look through everything. Go through everything. I waived my like, any normal person, if you've watched any type of lawyer TV show. We worked together, in conjunction to comb through all the evidence from both sides, and I wasn't able to comb through some of the evidence from the other side. But they did it, and they found me fully innocent and completely clear of doing all wrongdoing to the point where these officers, inside the interrogation room were profusely apologizing.”

β€” Akash - vending machine entrepreneur

China's Belt and Road builds roads but breeds resentment

β€œSo I went on part of my honeymoon with my wife to Rwanda and remember driving, when we did a gorilla trek and, you know, an amazing country, especially what they went through, with their genocide and civil war and how the country has been rebuilt. But you know, the driver on the way to the Guerrilla Tracts Plaza, guys are Americans, we love Americans. This road, everything here was built by the Chinese. We hate the Chinese. And I go, but they built you the road, why would they? And I go, yeah, they built our road. They won't pay and they won't use Rwandan workers. They don't eat at the same restaurants or anything like that.”

β€” Ben Black - CEO of the DFC

Punk emerged from 1976 youth unemployment and national despair

β€œThe Sex Pistols seem perfectly cast to capture the mood in 1976. So Tony Parsons in the NME in early October says they're the quintessential product of The United Kingdom in the nineteen seventies. The music they play reflects their times, no more, no less. And then they get their first appearance a week later in the national newspapers in The Sun.”

β€” Dominic Sandbrook - historian and podcast co-host

AI training teaches thinking, not just loading information

β€œThe training phase must not be thought of as loading the model with information, which I had done until now. It goes far beyond that. It consists of teaching the model how to think. By absorbing text, the model learns how to understand reasoning patterns and form them, how arguments are structured, how to generate new combinations of ideas, and how to apply learned reasoning patterns to novel situations.”

β€” Howard Marks - co-founder of Oaktree Capital

Biological age can reverse via systemic NAD+ repair

β€œWe saw a reversal of biological age. This was measured using the glycan age test of 1.26 years in 28 days as well. So we know that this is improving all around cellular health. In this study, we didn't measure any sort of clinical outcomes in terms of disease status, but we saw significant reduction in levels of GSP in just 28 days.”

β€” Dr. Nichola Conlon

Trump abandoned wrapping the mailed fist in velvet glove

β€œI think the biggest difference, the thing that's really striking and that I didn't expect when Trump came back in, was that the United States has sort of abandoned all efforts to wrap the mailed fist in the velvet glove. The United States has been a very powerful country for a long time and we've sometimes played hardball, certainly with our adversaries and sometimes with our allies. But especially with our allies, we tended to do that reluctantly. We listened, we tried to accommodate their concerns whenever possible.”

β€” Stephen M. Walt

Foreign aid lost discipline after winning the Cold War

β€œI think in some ways, we were slightly victims of our own success. You know, you go to this period of time after we win the Cold War, and everyone's into Fukuyama's end of history. And if you build it, it'll just people will automatically convert to our system. We let China into the WTO. We lost all discipline.”

β€” Ben Black - CEO of the DFC

Predatory hegemons treat allies as zero-sum targets

β€œWell, the predatory part is that the United States has, under Trump, in his second term, essentially adopted a zero-sum approach to all of its relations, not just relations towards adversaries, where all great powers tend to act in a fairly assertive and predatory fashion. But Trump is also acting that way towards some of our closest allies. You see this in the tariff policy, trying to extract concessions on economic terms by threatening other countries with tariffs, including some of our closest allies. Their guiding credo is, what's mine is mine and what yours is negotiable.”

β€” Stephen M. Walt

Conservative institutions delayed by years, not months

β€œSo I think if we can fairly say that we've lost three to six months of institutional adoption, for, I'd say, an average. Some people I've seen are not slowing down at all. They get the difference between, like, a morphe and an Ave, for example. And did they understand that things can be isolated and etcetera. But for the most conservative ones, you know, it's probably delaying them even in years.”

β€” Paul Frambot

Rutin and Alpha Lipoic Acid activate recycling pathways

β€œRutin actually is a direct activator of NAMPT, so it directly switches on its expression. And then the other one that we use is alpha lipoic acid. And alpha lipoic acid is an indirect activator. The way that this works is it actually switches on something in our cells called AMPK, which is an energy sensor that tells ourselves to produce more NAMPT.”

β€” Dr. Nichola Conlon

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