Thumbtack CEO Marco Zappacosta on why trades are AI-proof, the trillion-dollar home services market, and why software stopped being a capital asset

“The trades and things that interface with the real world, in particular, in ways that are hard to automate, are very durable. OpenAI put out a paper, I think, with ChatGPT-4 that came out about sort of the jobs most at risk and least at risk. And the least at risk was, like, filled with home service jobs. It was, like, oil and gas jobs and, thumbtack jobs, like, things that you gotta be there.”

“Well, I think the magic is that the AI can do the digital interface for these folks in a in a much better way than they've ever done for themselves. Have your website and your social media presences up to date, respond to people quickly, answer questions, submit follow ups, submit estimates. Basically, the, like, admin work that's involved, which is rarely why these people got into the business.”

“What it highlights though is that this purchase is mediated by something else. It's not simply about convenience or ease of use. It's much more about certainty and peace of mind. A, because the dollars are much higher here. Two, it's the opposite of a commodity. Right? You're getting the floors done in your house. Like, you walk on them every day. You care about that.”

“We actually, by being broad, could invest in liquidity building mechanisms that no narrow vertical ever could. And so because of that, that sort of aggregate sort of leverage, we could bring in more pros, engage more pros, support those pros, retain those pros more effectively than any of the verticalized players. Even though the experience on the front end may have been less customized, the fulfillment capabilities and the marketplace experience was vastly better.”

“Sometimes you'll hear me say a trillion. I just wanna use the t. You know? And from what I understand, like, still less than 10% of it is booked online. It's the same homeowner, it's the same set of thumbs that uses Uber and DoorDash and Airbnb and Amazon. So the laziness and the desire to do things easily and quickly is there, but the purchase is mediated by certainty.”