IMPORTANT War Updates... The Impact of Oil

“When you think of investing, you have to think of the world in terms of frameworks. We as human beings are not good at all at predicting the future. We all do it. Our brains operate like a prediction engine. We all try to predict the future, and we're terrible at it. All of us are terrible at it. Because if you're good at it, you'd be a bazillionaire.”

“There's another game that Wall Street plays to do, which is hide the earnings. So typically what they do, they'll give an estimate of what they expect next quarter's earnings to be. Well, the expectation was always a dollar 25. They just told you it was a dollar 10, so they could walk over that bar a lot easier than if it was higher. So they lower the bar, and then they walk over. They're like, look at us. We won. It's like a professional athlete playing against somebody's little league.”

“So if you look back twenty years, there's a inverse relationship between stocks and bonds of negative point five, which is pretty good, stocks and bonds, which means when stocks go up, bonds go down. Problem is starting in 2022 when interest rates went up, stocks went down, prices of everything went down. And since then, now we're at a positive point five, which means when stocks go up, bond prices go up. When stocks go down, bond prices go down. So what's the point of diversification? It doesn't work. If you have a sixtyforty, it's not working for you.”

“If you're investing in tech, especially the the Mag seven, here's something you should keep in mind. Now this is we call it CapEx. So this is the amount of money they're spending. If I own a company and they make a $100 and my earnings as an investor is $30, but then they take 29 of those dollars and go spend it on a data center that earns them no money, I'm not gonna be happy. I'm gonna sell that stock and go find another one that they treat me better.”

“How do you invest right now? Patience and caution. Don't jump on the market just because it's going higher. Be patient. Maybe take a small position in something. Start. If your full position is 5%, maybe put 1% in. Start there. See if you're right. If you think it's going higher, okay. At least you have something and you can keep adding to it. But if it goes lower, well, you don't have that much exposure. You're not gonna get hurt that much.”

“When you put it together, you don't really get a simple growth story. You get a mixed picture. Businesses are borrowing more. Consumers are active, but uneven. Housing is weakening. Banks are adjusting how they find themselves. That is not broad expansion. It is selective and shifting activity inside the system. This is late cycle behavior. And that data doesn't show that a booming economy, it doesn't show a collapsing one does show sign for caution.”

“We work with families right now, looking at schools with $50.60, dollars 70,000 cost of attendance. But this is a real world example of a family that we worked at with a 42,000 executive scholarship, plus an $8,000 music scholarship. And by the way, affluent families aren't filing FAFSA. They got a $2,000 scholarship just for filing FAFSA. So it pays to file FAFSA and they got another $2,000 referral credit. That was 54,000 right off the top of that $72,000 cost to tenants, and that didn't even touch local or department level scholarships, yet.”

“We had a surprise on Thursday night, Wednesday night going into Thursday, where the markets dropped really quickly as there was some news out that there was some missiles being fired back and forth. And then the reports came back and said, no. No. No. That was just they were just doing training missions. Like, oh, so in the middle of a war with the ceasefire, you're doing training missions where there's a bunch of firing going on. That's a good idea. That's a really, really smart idea. Glad they thought of that.”