Dylan Patel - The Infinite Demand for Tokens, Claude Mythos, and Supply Constraints - [Invest Like the Best, EP.468]

“This year, the spend has just skyrocketed, and it really started in late December with Opus. ... We signed an enterprise contract with Anthropic, and it's gone to the point where now I think when I last talked to you, it was 5,000,000 spend rate. It's actually 7,000,000 spend rate now. ... We're north of 25% of spend on cloud code as a percentage of salary. And if this trajectory continues, then, you know, we'll spend more than a 100% by the end of the year, which is a bit terrifying.”

“Methos is potentially the biggest step up in model capabilities in two years. I think that's really, really an important detail that it's so good that they're, like, don't wanna release it even though they already announced the price to their people that they did a selective release for cyber for, and it's 5 or 10 x the token cost. They just don't wanna release it because they're worried about the impact on the world. And they're releasing a worse version, Opus four seven, to us, and they explicitly said on the card, hey. We actually Preferably. Made it worse at cyber.”

“There's people who have argued GPU's full lives are less than five years. Complete nonsense. There are clusters now resigning. Three or four year old Hopper clusters resigning for three or four more years. There's a 100 clusters that are resigning for another couple years. So the useful life is clearly not five years. It's maybe even seven or eight years, arguably. We don't know yet. We'll see when Hopper gets there, but it's clearly not five years. So useful life is extending, and the prices are going up on that renewal.”

“None of that incremental capacity really gets here until the second that they've decided to do in addition to the typical 20 to 30%. They can stretch a little bit, but, really, the true incremental supply doesn't come till '28, which is a very unique thing. Even if they wanted to build as fast as possible, it doesn't come till '28, late twenty seven at best. So the result is memory prices have gone through the roof. And guess what? They're gonna double and triple again, at least on DRAM, especially.”

“What used to matter a lot was execution was very, very fucking difficult, and ideas were cheap. Now ideas are cheap and plentiful, but execution is very easy. So, really, only the good ideas are the ones that can justify the spend on super cheap implementation. ... If implementation costs continue to tank, which they are, we don't even have Meetos yet. ... What now comes to the world, it's a complete reordering of how economies work.”

“I think there will be a large scale protest against Anthropic and end up at AI. People hate AI. AI is less popular than ICE, less popular than politicians. With Anthropic adding so much revenue, that's gonna start causing business changes downstream. People are gonna get more and more scared of AI. They'll start blaming more and more of their own problems and things that are global, have been deep seated problems for a long time. Those will bubble up and be blamed on AI.”