All things AI w @altcap @sama & @satyanadella. A Halloween Special. 🎃🔥BG2 w/ Brad Gerstner

“It's not what we thought. And as I said to somebody, it's not like when we first invested our billion dollars that, oh, this is going to be the 100 bagger that I'm gonna be talking about to VCs about, but here we are. But we are very thrilled to be, an investor and an early backer, and and it's a great and it's really a testament to what Sam and team have done, quite frankly.”

“We're doing well more revenue than that. Second of all, Brad, if you wanna sell your shares, I'll find you a buyer if you don't feel I I just enough. Like, you know, people are I think there's a lot of people who would love to buy OpenAI shares. People who talk, with a lot of, like, breathless concern about our compute stuff or whatever, that would be thrilled to buy shares. So I think we we could sell, you know, your shares or anybody else's to some of the people who are making the most noise on Twitter, whatever, about this very quickly.”

“Well, I mean, I think the the cycles of demand and supply in this particular case, you can't really predict. The secular trend is what Sam said, which is at the end of the day because quite frankly, the biggest issue we are now having is not a compute glut, but it's a power, and it's sort of the ability to get the bills done fast enough close to power. So if you can't do that, you may actually have a bunch of chips sitting in inventory that I can't plug in. In fact, that is my problem today. It's not a supply issue of chips. It's actually, the fact that I don't have warm shells to plug into.”

“There there will come a glut for sure. And whether that's, like, in two to three years or five to six, Satya and I can't tell you, but, like, it's gonna happen at some point, probably several points along the way. So, you know, if a very cheap form of energy comes online soon at mass scale and a lot of people are gonna be extremely burned with existing contracts they've signed, it if if we can continue this unbelievable reduction in cost per unit of intelligence, let's say it's been averaging, like, 40 x for a given level per year. You know, that's like a very scary exponent from an infrastructure build out standpoint.”

“I don't know how we're supposed to comply with that California sorry, Colorado law. I would love them to tell us, and, you know, we'd like to be able to do it, but that's just from what I've read of that, that's like a I literally don't know what we're supposed to do. I'm very worried about a 50 state patchwork. I think it's a big mistake.”

“I I hope for very small scientific discoveries in 2026, but if we can get those very small ones, we'll get bigger ones in future years. That's a really crazy thing to say is that, like, AI is gonna make a novel scientific discovery in 2026, even a very small one. This is, like, this is a wildly important thing to be talking about. So I'm excited for that. But, yeah, my personal bias is if we can really get AI to do science here, that is I mean, that is super intelligence in some sense.”

“The other side of the value capture for us is going to be incorporating all this IP. Not only we have the exclusivity of the model in, Azure, but we have access to the IP. I mean, having a royalty free, let's even forgetting all the the know how and the knowledge side of it, but having royalty free access all the way till seven more years gives us a lot of flexibility business model wise. It's kinda like having a frontier model for free, in some sense. If you're an MSFT shareholder, that's kinda where you should start from is to think about it.”

“And that's where I thought we did the right thing to give them flexibility to go procure that from others while maintaining, again, a significant book of business from OpenAI, but more importantly, giving ourselves the flexibility with other customers, our own one p. Right? Because sometimes, you know, Sam may say, hey. Give me build me a dedicated, you know, big, you know, whatever, multi gigawatt data center in one location for training. Makes sense from an OpenAI perspective. Doesn't make sense from a long term infrastructure build out for Azure.”

“I mean, it's sort of one of those interesting things, which is everything is a commodity. Right? Compute, storage. I remember everybody saying, wow. How can they give a margin? Except at scale, nothing is a commodity. And so, therefore, yes. So we have to have a cost structure, our supply chain efficiency, our software efficiencies, all have to kinda continue to compound in order to make sure that there's margins, but scale.”

“So it's not like, for example, the per seat versus consumption. The reality is agents are the new seats. And so you can think of it as, the enterprise monetization is much clearer. The consumer monetization, I think, is a little more murky.”

“There is this person who leads our network operations. And the amount of fiber there, the AI ran, and what have you. It's just crazy. There are, I think, 400 different fiber operators we are dealing with worldwide. But the person who leads it, she basically said to me, you know what? I there's no way I'll ever get the headcount to go do all this. Not forget, even if I even approve the budget, I can't hire all these folks. So she she did the next best thing. She just built herself a whole bunch of agents to automate the DevOps pipeline of how to deal with the maintenance.”