βThe GDX hit the lowest level today since early January. So even with this large pullback, it's actually still up on the year. And it's approaching levels where you saw the peak back in October. Mid-80s is where you wanna pick up GDX or the subsequent miners within it, if you feel you need to up your position in precious metals.β
Fertilizer supply faces geopolitical and price risks
βA lot of people are focusing on oil, but the components that are making up fertilizer, a lot of that comes from the Middle East and passes through the Strait of Hormuz. I have heard stories, been talking to people, farmers who are already worried about the cost of fertilizer. It's not just a cost thing. At a certain point, it becomes less about how much you have to pay and if you'll be able to pay at all.β
βThe better course of action for the vast majority of people is to roll that old 403B or 401K into a traditional IRA. No tax consequences, opens you up to as many investment options pretty much as you want, and then at a future date, then you could roll it over into a Roth IRA. Typically, that is the time between retiring and taking Social Security.β
Preferred stocks carry high interest rate sensitivity
βMost preferreds are going to be rate sensitive. When interest rates rise, prices can fall pretty sharply, even if the issuer is financially healthy. There's also the call risk, reinvestment risk. Many issues are callable, meaning companies can redeem them if rates fall, forcing investors to reinvest at lower yields. They work best as more of a supplemental income tool, not really a core holding.β
βI've looked at charts for 25 plus years now, and when it hits a certain level and then just sells off considerably, that is a sign of momentum ending or waning. In the last six months, I said, the bear market is likely to go until 2027. It will find likely a bottom in 2027. Where that is, I do not know. We shall see. Very well could go below 50,000 this year.β