βOne of the things that we've been pointing to, which was very much a contrarian view back January 1, was that yield curves would basically begin to flatten by the middle of the year. That was a very different view than the consensus, which was basically wedded to the idea that yield curves would steepen, and probably steepen significantly because of inflation problems at the long end.β
Financial markets today act as debt refinancing mechanisms
βAnd we've made the case for some time that financial markets today are debt refinancing mechanisms and you need balance sheet capacity to roll over debt. And that balance sheet capacity you can measure with global liquidity. Real economy liquidity is something different. And that is much more measuring the transactions in the real economy.β
Apyx launches stablecoin backed by MicroStrategy preferred stock
βEssentially what we did was we created stable coin backed by this instrument, put some cash in there as well, a little bit of SATA. But we think a whole bunch of other DATs are going to be issuing very similar variable rate non-convertible preferreds as well. And so this basically ports that yield from the NASDAQ into the on-chain world.β
βAnd it unlocks tax efficient borrowing. And one reason borrowers may prefer this approach, borrowing against your crypto may provide liquidity without creating a tax event by selling your collateral. Note, this is not tax advice. Consult a tax professional for your specific situation.β
βWith Bitcoin down 50% from all time high, a lot of holders are exploring ways to put their crypto to work. One option worth knowing about, crypto lending platforms. Now this chart right here perfectly illustrates my point. What you're looking at here is crypto lending.β
Bitcoin is performing as a hedge against global instability
βIt starts to feel like there's spot accumulation. It's tentative. This is not the frothy risk asset narrative that we're accustomed to seeing in Bitcoin, and it could have to do with the hedge against crazy from those that actually take time to understand Bitcoin. For those that do so tend to buy the hedge against crazy narrative, I count myself in that particular bucket, which is why it tends to outperform when things are crazy.β
Crypto lending platforms show uninterrupted growth
βWhat you're looking at here is crypto lending. You deposit your crypto, and for eligible assets, interest can accrue on your balance. And what I noticed on this chart is a major shift recently. If you see, there are several quarters in a row we've just seen uninterrupted growth.β
Accelerating real economy sucks liquidity from financial markets
βThe reason for that is not because central banks are tightening and withdrawing liquidity, it's because the real economy is actually accelerating or increasing its appetite to be more correct. It's working capital demands and that is sucking liquidity out of markets. Now, whether that is because of higher oil and energy costs, or whether it's because there's more inventory build, more capex spend, more economic activity going on, is kind of a moot point.β
Bond market yields signal tension despite equity optimism
βGenerally the bond market has the reputation of being the intelligent market. And so it's where the macro traders tend to focus. And that has been signaling squeeze coming up. I mean, yields for the 10-year are up at 4.23%, 4.3%. That's high when you consider that the Fed actually started the cutting cycle quite a while ago now. And it's also high considering yesterday we had the hearings on Capitol Hill.β
DeFi security assumptions require a fundamental industry overhaul
βAs DeFi absorbs yet another devastating security failure, is the industry's core assumption β that incoming transactions should be treated as legitimate β finally due for an overhaul? Austin Campbell, Ram Ahluwalia, and Chris Perkins dig in with Parker White of Apyx and Michael Bentley of Euler.β
Derivatives data indicates the rally lacks speculative froth
βThe derivatives market for Bitcoin is weak. It is just sending a lot of really miserable signals. You've got bases down. I haven't seen lows like this in ages. You've got skews suggesting a very heavy weighting towards puts. You've got the funding rate was negative yesterday. Today, I think it's tempted to be positive. In other words, the derivatives markets are saying that, hey, we're not frothy.β
STRC represents a new digital credit financial primitive
βMicro strategies, STRC or stretch instrument as they call it is the most traded, most liquid and largest preferred stock ever in history. Preferred stocks are kind of a somewhat niche area of the market. But interestingly, and many people don't know this, stretch's IPO was actually the largest IPO of 2025, full stop.β
βTether, Nexo, and Galaxy are the top three lenders Galaxy Research tracks by outstanding loan values. As of September 30, Tether, 14,600,000,000 in open loans, Nexo, 2,040,000,000. Now Nexo is interesting because they've been around since 2018.β
Investors are rotating from altcoins back into Bitcoin safety
βThe Bitcoin dominance index is this morning reached its highest point since I think November of last year. So what we're seeing is in part new money coming into the market, and Bitcoin is the obvious on ramp, it's tentative still. But I think we're also seeing some rotation out of other crypto assets into the safety of Bitcoin.β
βIt's very similar to Athena, where we've got APXUSD is the non-staked version, and then APYUSD is the staked version. APYUSD is the only bucket that pays yield. Right now, we've got, let's just call it 50 percent of the balance sheet, or 50 percent of the issued assets are staked. So the whole collateral base is paying yield to just the 50 percent. So that's how you actually get some kind of yield leverage, if you will.β
Bitcoin surged past $78k following Trumpβs ceasefire extension
βBitcoin is back above $78,000, as investors go risk on across the board, leading many to wonder if this is yet another bull trap, or if we're actually going to see a major breakout and a move into the 80s. Bitcoin jumps over $78,000, hits 11-week high amid Trump's Seek Fire extension. I mean, I don't even know how to talk about the war anymore because I get accused of having TDS and I feel like I'm losing my mind.β
Flexible yield provides daily interest without lockups
βNow flexible daily compound interest with no lockups. So you generate the compound interest, like I said, with daily payouts after twenty four hours, retain complete access to your USDT, and experience the compounding effect as each payout fuels the next.β
βDeFi TVL fell from $99.5 to $86.3 billion in 48 hours after the $290 million Kelp DAO exploit β the latest nine-figure attack attributed to North Korea's Lazarus Group, this time via a compromised Layer Zero bridge.β
Investors should transition to defensive risk-off positioning now
βEffectively, what these things are, they're moving counter cyclically. When you get a strong economy, that's absorbing liquidity and financial markets tend to lose out because financial liquidity is depressed. Our view has been basically to pay back risk during this period. I mean, not get out of markets entirely, but we're basically moving more risk off, that's for sure.β
Global liquidity is inflecting lower toward turbulence phase
βThe liquidity cycle, which dominates market movements, is basically inflicting lower. And we're in the season that we currently call speculation, which is a late one, take that as the autumn, precedes what we call turbulence. And turbulence is probably, as the name suggests, a very difficult time for risk assets.β