Bitcoin is decoupling from software stocks after months of correlation
βBitcoin screamed up to 78,000 on the seventeenth, so last Friday. And it's it's held up pretty well throughout all this. you had Bitcoin on the one month chart really diverging from the software stocks index from from Vanguard, I think. There was some sharp divergence. Bitcoin up 6%. Software stocks down about a percent, and they've been trading in tandem since the middle of last year.β
Sierra Verde deal shows aggressive US industrial policy on rare earths
βThe thing that really first just, like, tipped tipped me off to it was last summer with the MP Materials deal for, you know, an equities massive equity stake in MP Materials and other rarest brews here in The US with offtake agreements as well and price floors, which is very industrial policy, very, you know, World War two preparation style, unfortunately, kind of central planning flavor in a policy. Well, you're seeing that here, as well with this deal. And so a major financing package for the deal from the Development Finance Corporation, which is, government Pentagon aligned, as well as a a long term fifteen year, 100% off take agreement with with price floors largely, it looks like, subsidized by and guaranteed by the government.β
Headlines whipsaw markets daily and reward ignoring them
βLook. It you know, your instinct is right. I think everyone should be off the screens, frankly, as much as they can. It's increasingly low low return on time and increasingly a a a dos attack on, your attention to really follow the headlines closely. So, it's it's Michael Scott, snap, snap, snap, snap basically every day of the week. And so I think this is just a great illustration of how little the average market participant knows or can really rely on anything that they're seeing come across their their Bloomberg or or CNBC on any given day.β
Fade leaders obsessed with short-term price reactions
βIn, you know, public company investing and Bitcoin's not public company, but public company investing, one of the key hallmarks of a CEO and a management team you wanna avoid is when they're overly focused on short term gyrations in stock price. Like, they just gotta get stock price up, and they're really freaked out when the stock price goes down one quarter, when the market misunderstands a quarter and sells sells the stock on earnings or something. And I see a lot of that in the conversation about Quantum, both from the institutional side, but also from some technical people as well. I would just encourage people to fade that type of thinking because that is a great way to optimize for decisions that will not help and will not drive value and will not drive stability and sustainability in the long term for any system.β
Stretch-driven DeFi yield farming is stacking risk on insecure protocols
βOne of the few things I've been following over the weekend because it's just so fascinating and validates something that we've been worrying or warning about in the space for for many years is the the draining of multiple DeFi protocols by hackers because the virtual machines that they're running on aren't as secure as as many people were led to believe and are not as decentralized as many people were led to believe either. So that, like, if you have a bunch of DeFi actors going aping in the stretch and they're doing it on insecure protocols or using insecure smart contracts, could could get interesting there as well.β
Trump has more market leeway than the taco trade assumes
βIf if your view is Trump has the chicken out, this is he's he's sensitive about stock market. He's sensitive about treasury yields, all these different things. Well, maybe. That may be true. But if that's the case and that's his primary Achilles' heel and primary constraint, even after he sent 10 destroyers, 12 destroyers, whatever, into into the Persian Gulf to turn away dozens of ships and kinda imperially take control thus far of of that area and stocks are all time highs. So if your entire bed, if your entire philosophy, if your entire worldview is it's, you know, it's just a matter of time before The US has to pull back because Trump's so worried about the the stock market, well, you know, he's he's got a lot of leeway right now.β
US is shifting from declining republic to rising empire
βYou know, I think it's it's worth asking, you know, if we map ourselves to to Rome as many people often do, are we entering the decline of the republic stage or the decline of the empire stage? Because those are very different phases of the history of that great power and have a lot of great powers that follow similar cycles. And, you know, a lot of people are ready to to stick a fork in in The US, but they maybe should be sticking a fork in The US Republic, not The US Empire.β
Mark Carney was strategically placed to lead Canada
βMark Carney's comments, I guess, in in reaction to to Trump's posturing towards Canada specifically. And if you're thinking, like, deep state actors placing Mark Carney in the prime minister role of Canada seems to be very strategic for for the incumbent power structure. If you know the history of Mark Carney at the Bank of England and HSBC and his involvement in the the cartel the cartel money laundering case with the HSBC where they're putting, duffel or, excuse me, briefcases full of cash through teller windows. They designed the teller window. He's he's had his fingers in everything. Many would consider him a a Davos class economic actor.β
De-dollarization can be delayed and Bitcoin still wins
βJust ask yourself, like, does de dollarization need need to happen? Does the Petro yuan need to happen? Do do we need to enter into thousand percent hyperinflation or, you know, massive, unprecedented big print? All of which is possible. But do we need that for Bitcoin to be an attractive investment, for Bitcoin to be an attractive technology to use for for payments at the sovereign level, the institutional level? And I, you know, I think I think the answer is definitively no.β
Institutions invoking NIST authority on quantum echoes 2016 block size war
βThis sort of this is leaning on the authority of NIST or the perceived authority of NIST. Everybody is pointing at NIST and saying, well, NIST is saying that, and NIST is doing this, and we need to do what NIST is saying. I think it's, again, tone deaf and naive because Bitcoin Satoshi picked LibSec p two two fifty six k one, that cryptographic library, because he looked at a lot of the NIST approved and recommended cryptographic signature schemes and found that a lot of them had embedded constants, which ultimately led to backdoors.β