US global economic leadership faces structural pressure
βThe US is a big economyβit's the largest on the planetβso, you know, it's still gonna play a very central role, but increasingly less of one as we move forward. We have benefited enormously from the globalization process and the fact that The US is central and the US dollar is central to everything that goes on in the world. And that is now gonna be under pressure; it was under pressure before all this, and it will be under even more pressure going forward.β
βFor nearly a week, slow moving convoys of tractors and trucks have blocked major highways and roads across the country, including some of the busiest streets in Ireland's capital, Dublin. Protestors are demanding more support from the government as fuel prices continue to rise because of The US and Israel's war against Iran. The Irish government has been meeting with farmers and truckers over the weekend and say more support is coming.β
Oil prices have established a permanently higher floor
βI think prices are permanently higher. I mean, when I say permanent, nothing's permanent, but at least in the foreseeable future, this year, next year, the year after. You know, we're not there's no going back to the $60, $65 bucks a barrel we were paying before all this mess. You're still left with a fee that's not inconsequential, and then, of course, insurance companies are gonna demand a higher insurance premium for insuring the traffic that moves through this strait because, you know, who knows what will happen in the future.β
Regional bank failures sparked global financial instability
β2023 also saw the roots of a global banking crisis arise out of four American regional banks, the two largest being Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank. 2021's inflation surge moderated in 2023, while the Federal Reserve continued to raise its interest rates in the first half of the year.β
Deglobalization acts as a corrosive force on growth
βI view this as a part of a broader, a very corrosive trend, and that that's the deglobalization of the economy that The US is pulling away from the rest of the world very quickly. I mean, you know, tariffs, immigration policy, what we're doing geopolitically. And then, of course, now the rest of the world is pulling away from us very quickly. If we are deglobalizing and this is just one more thing that will cause that process to continue and potentially even accelerate, it has all kinds of corrosive effects.β
βHigh level talks are set to begin in Pakistan this weekend as US and Iranian officials meet to discuss a ceasefire plan. Security is tight in Islamabad where authorities are locking down parts of the capital ahead of the meetings.β
Oil giants executed massive strategic energy mergers
βAdditionally, the latter half of the year saw many large mergers and acquisitions, some of the largest announcements being in oil and gas with ExxonMobil's purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources for nearly $60 billion and Chevron's acquisition of Hess Corporation for $50 billion, both in October and pending regulatory approval prior to closure.β
βUsing satellite photos, researchers looked at Earth from 2014 to 2022 and found that nighttime lighting, artificial light like street lamps, is increasing globally by about 2% per year. The shift is not uniform, the study finds. China and India became increasingly bright during the time period while light pollution from other developed countries decreased.β
βFebruary non-farm payrolls came in at negative $92,000, an outright decline, completely upending the labor market stabilization theme and better growth sentiment from the ISM prints that we saw earlier this week. Prior months, in fact, were revised down another $69,000. With that, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% and the participation rate dropped half a point to 62%.β
Synthetic chemicals increase toxicity of US drug supply
βOnce a month or once every other month, we're encountering something that we we've never seen before, and we haven't seen indications of it being seen in The United States before either.β
βPresident Trump said today in a post on social media that the US Navy will begin to blockade any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait Of Hormuz. He also said any ship that paid a fee to Iran to pass through the waterway will not have safe passage through the Strait. Trump said the US Navy will begin destroying all mines that Iran has put in the Strait, and he called the mining of the Strait extortion.β
βIt has, revealed this new source of leverage that, the rest of the world didn't realize. It's, essential, for the Trump administration to make sure that however this ends, it doesn't end with Iran, in control of of the strait.β
Renewable energy milestones reached - Federal reports indicate that wind and solar energy production hit record highs this quarter, outpacing traditional fossil fuel growth.
βThe resilience of the American consumer continues to surprise analysts, even as borrowing costs remain at decade highs.β
FAA approves anti-drone lasers for border security
βThe FAA says antidrone lasers can now be used along The US Southern border. Earlier this year, the agency had shut down airspace in some parts of Texas after the Pentagon deployed the lasers. Now the FAA and Pentagon have signed an agreement that outlines the safety precautions that will be employed.β
βOn-chain analytics firm Glassnode highlighted the growing divergence between institutional demand and the price action. Investment vehicles, notably the US-bought Bitcoin ETFs, were seeing inflows despite the weakening on-chain signals, such as volume. The sustainability of institutional flows and renewed buyer conviction will determine whether this contraction stabilizes.β
βIsrael's military says this weekend, it struck more than 200 Hezbollah targets, and Hezbollah said it continued rocket, drone, and artillery attacks on Israel and Israeli troops inside Lebanon. Lebanon says the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors to Washington will hold their first direct meeting Tuesday at the state department to discuss a ceasefire and a date for starting negotiations.β
Far-right factions severely limited Kevin McCarthy's speakership power
βThe dominant political story of the year has been the 270-day-long speakership of Representative Kevin McCarthy, whose slim majority in the House of Representatives has enabled a far-right rebellion to exert more weight over the lower chamber. The battle between the rebellious Freedom Caucus and McCarthy has been at the heart of an averted debt ceiling crisis and the annual budget debate nearly devolving into a government shutdown.β
Gas prices projected to exceed five dollars per gallon
βIt's not impossible that while we, have seen a slight dip over the last week that we certainly could see gas prices reaccelerating, and it's not impossible that new records, with prices eventually rising above $5 a gallon remain possible.β
Surging oil prices trigger bank earnings volatility concerns
βGoldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and other big banks will report results from the last three months, giving investors a window into the economic fallout from the war in Iran and the resulting energy crisis. Surging oil prices have pushed up costs for both companies and consumers, and banks like JPMorgan do business with both.β
Hertz faces high risk from significant structural debt
βTicker HTZ is Hertz Global... It emerged from bankruptcy in June of 2021 and it's still carrying some pretty hefty leverage, $15.8 billion in long-term debt, negative free cashflow that is projected to be positive next year. In spite of that, it's still projected to lose money. It has not made money since December of 2023. Bottom line is they are executing a genuine operating turnaround, but at the same time, there are still some structural weaknesses in this company that could lead you to say, okay, high risk, high reward. It's certainly not for the faint of heart.β
State courts remain divided over constitutional abortion protections
βJanuary 5, The South Carolina Supreme Court strikes down the state's six-week abortion ban, ruling it violates the state's Constitution. The Idaho Supreme Court upholds the state's ban on abortion in a 3 to 2 ruling. The debate over abortion has further continued, with numerous laws being passed by state legislatures and court decisions issued at all levels.β
Energy price spikes drive inflation to 3.3 percent
βConsumer prices in March were up 3.3% from a year ago. That's the biggest annual increase in almost two years. Prices jumped nine tenths of a percent between February and March with a spike in gasoline prices accounting for nearly three quarters of that increase. Gas prices have jumped by more than a dollar a gallon since The US and Israel launched their war on Iran.β
Israel and Lebanon scheduled for direct peace talks
βIsraeli and Lebanese diplomats are now preparing to hold their first direct meeting between government officials in decades on Tuesday. Israel and Lebanon's ambassadors to The US are set to meet in Washington to discuss a ceasefire. But at a Hezbollah rally in downtown Beirut, Saturday, supporters filled the streets for blocks, waving flags and chanting against negotiations.β
βNASDAQ's David Bailey's KindlyMD kicks off their Bitcoin treasury with a massive $679 million buy. If you're not familiar with David Bailey, he's the CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, and he is Trump's Bitcoin advisor. Remember last week we discussed he was going to be launching his treasury firm with a billion dollar purchase? Well, he got the ball rolling with $679 million.β
βThe spike in gasoline prices following The US attack on Iran caused a major jump in inflation in March. Inflation had been undergoing a slow decline before the war began, but consumer prices were up 3.3% over March 2025. That's the biggest jump in almost two years.β
βMcIlroy was on fire on the back nine. He had back to back birdies on the twelfth and thirteenth holes, then ended with a flourish. Four straight birdies to wrap up the round, including a remarkable 90 foot chip shot from off the green that rolled in. McIlroy's six stroke lead is the largest after two rounds in Masters history.β
Inflation surge keeps Federal Reserve interest rates high
βA sharp spike in gasoline prices during the war triggered a surge of inflation last month. Consumer prices in March were up 3.3% from a year ago. That's the biggest annual increase in twenty two months. Stripping out volatile energy and food prices, core inflation was 2.6%, high enough to make the Federal Reserve cautious about additional cuts to interest rates.β
βNASA administrator Jared Isaacman, who went to space twice as a private astronaut, was on the ship with workers from the US Navy and NASA. It was the first time that the US Navy and NASA had teamed up for a spacecraft recovery since the end of the Apollo lunar program in 1972.β
βVice president JD Vance is in Islamabad today leading a US delegation for high level talks aimed at stabilizing a fragile ceasefire between The US and Iran. The agreement reached this week is already being tested with tensions lingering between the two sides. Officials say the next two weeks will be critical in determining whether the ceasefire can hold.β
βThe Manhattan District Attorney's Office says it has opened a sexual assault investigation against California congressman and Democratic candidate for governor Eric Sawell. He is facing allegations of sexual abuse, one involving a reported incident in September 2024 at a New York City hotel involving a former staff member. Other women have come forward to accuse Sawell of sexual misconduct.β
βBlackRock quietly accumulated 3% of the entire Bitcoin supply, over 700,000 Bitcoin. I don't know the exact number, but safe to say they are the largest hodler of Bitcoin outside of Satoshi himself, and potentially Max Keiser. At today's prices, that's 72 billion in Bitcoin exposure, a staggering figure clearly by any measure.β
βThe refuge has been taking in elephants for two years now. It's designed as a retirement community of sorts for those that have been working in zoos and circuses or privately owned, says Buckley. They're recovering from the trauma that they experienced living in captivity. And for them to open up and trust you while you are there with them, helping them work through it, it's indescribable.β
βPresident Trump said Bitcoin takes a lot of pressure off the dollar. It is much more important than anything we have invested in. I got to agree with that, but Max reiterates it obliterates the dollar, but it's important that you don't understand this yet.β
Labor strikes reshaped the 2023 economic and industrial landscape
βThe rise of artificial intelligence and large language models dominated not only the economy but has also been at the root of a Hollywood double strike conducted by Writers Guild of America and a SAG APTRA strike. These were part of a larger phenomenon of labor strikes across the country, in which such large diverse groups, such as Teamsters and Auto Workers won new contracts.β
Trump proposes massive 250th anniversary Washington arch
βThe Trump administration has released plans for a massive arch to be built in Washington DC. The project is meant to mark the nation's two hundred fiftieth anniversary in July, though details on funding and approval remain unclear. Critics say the proposal would mark a significant departure from how sitting presidents typically approach public memorials.β
Markets now factor in presidential geopolitical posturing
βFeels pretty close to script, more or less. You know, the president has gone down this path in other ways. And when push comes to shove, when markets start to react, when stock prices are down, when interest rates are up, and in this case, when oil prices are up, he figures out a way to pivot, to stand down, and to declare victory and hopefully move on.β
Oil production cuts threaten extreme global energy volatility
βThe oil story intensified dramatically. Crude oil surged over 12%, its best session since 2020 and closed above $90 a barrel, up 36% on the week. Cutter warned that all Gulf producers may have to shut down production within days, a scenario that could drive oil to $150. Kuwait has reportedly already started cutting production.β
Carol G makes history headlining Coachella music festival
βThe Southern California Music Festival, which has been running for more than twenty five years, is one of the hottest tickets of the festival season. And the Colombian star, Carol G, will make history on Sunday night as the first Latina to ever headline the festival.β
βIf they're gonna try to play us, then they're gonna find that the negotiating team is not that receptive. So we're gonna try to have a positive negotiation. The president has gave us some pretty clear guidelines, and, we're gonna see.β
βLufthansa flights are facing a major disruption today after cabin crew staged another one day strike. Operations at Frankfurt and Munich airports have been hit especially hard with tens of thousands of passengers affected by delays and cancellations.β
Falling vaccination rates fuel South Carolina measles
βHealth officials say infants lack protection against the disease and are more likely to suffer severe complications or die. They rely entirely on herd immunity, which requires nearly everyone to be vaccinated. But following vaccination rates are weakening that protection in South Carolina and in other states across the country.β
βIran is believed to have placed mines in the strait, and a US official who's not authorized to speak publicly told NPR's Tom Bowman that minesweepers will also be used as part of the blockade. There are a lot of unknowns. You know, will any ships try to break a US blockade? And and if so, how will the US military respond? And what will Iran do?β
βIran's deputy foreign minister, Saif Khatibzadeh, told Al Jazeera English that Iran will permit some ships to pass through the Strait Of Hormuz, but only in coordination with Iranian forces. Permanent control of the Strait is among Iran's key demands in its negotiations with The US.β
βRussian president Vladimir Putin announced the cease fire from 4PM Saturday through end of Easter Sunday, a proposal to which Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky agreed. Yet the Russian side accused Ukraine of launching overnight drone attacks on several border regions injuring civilians, and Ukraine blamed Russia for waves of drones and shelling that killed several people and injured scores more.β
βThe Daily chart, as you can see, big ass red corrective candle on the day, not looking so good, and it's huge, at least compared to yesterday. But the silver lining, there's a bull flag formation outline here; we also have the Barney the Purple bull flag indicator right there at 146.4.β
βWholesale prices rose sharply in the latest report, pointing to persistent inflation that could complicate Federal Reserve policy decisions. This unexpected uptick in producer prices suggests that inflation, well, the fight is far from over, despite the earlier optimism about cooling pricing pressures. The bond market is trying to balance safe-haven demand against persistent inflation concerns from energy price spikes.β
Astronauts return from historic lunar orbit mission
βIntegrity and her crew, four astronauts flew 700,237 miles. We hit our flight path angle target within point 4%. We flew an entry range of 1,957 miles, and we landed within less than a mile of our target. What a tremendous day.β
US and Iran hold historic face-to-face peace talks
βThe Americans are led by vice president, JD Vance, and the Iranians by the parliament speaker, Mohammad Baher Ghalibaf. The negotiations are based on a 10 Iranian plan that includes an end to attacks and sanctions on the country. Analysts warn negotiations will take time, and it's unlikely one meeting will resolve this conflict.β
Wildlife trade significantly increases human disease risk
βIt found forty one percent of traded mammals shared at least one pathogen with humans, while just 6% of non traded ones did. And the longer humans have been trading animals, the more viruses they share. For every decade in the wildlife trade, an additional new pathogen jumps to humans.β
Refuges prioritize elephant trauma recovery over public display
βThey're recovering from the trauma that they experienced living in captivity. And for them to open up and trust you while you are there with them, helping them work through it, it's indescribable. They feel all the vibration and energy that comes into their area, which is one of the reasons we're not open to the public, because I can't control people's energy.β
βConsumer prices in March were up 3.3% from a year ago. That's the biggest annual increase in almost two years. Prices jumped nine tenths of a percent between February and March with a spike in gasoline prices accounting for nearly three quarters of that increase.β
Artificial intelligence triggered massive Hollywood labor strikes
βThe rise of artificial intelligence and large language models dominated not only the economy but has also been at the root of a Hollywood double strike conducted by Writers Guild of America and a SAG APTRA strike, these were part of a larger phenomenon of labor strikes across the country, in which such large diverse groups, such as Teamsters and Auto Workers won new contracts.β
βThe head of Iran's forensic medical agency says the country's death toll in the war over the past six weeks has surpassed three thousand. Additionally, 857 schools, 32 universities, and 338 hospitals were damaged or destroyed by air strikes, according to the Iranian Red Crescent.β
βThe US Central Command says it will begin a blockade of all Iranian ports and coastal areas starting in six hours. President Trump ordered the blockade after peace talks collapsed this weekend in Pakistan.β
Ball Corporation benefits from pure play aluminum focus
βBall Corporation is the world's largest aluminum beverage can manufacturer. It also produces aluminum containers for personal care and household products. It is more than anything a pure play aluminum packaging name after a history of also being in the aerospace defense industry. But that sold off in February of 2024. What you're seeing is, well, big volume catalysts, sporting events, historically drive meaningful can volume.β
Forest Service shutters dozens of research labs nationwide
β57 of 77 forest service labs nationwide are on a list to shutter. Scientists at these labs study everything from pollinators to wildfires. The agency said this week the closures don't mean an end to research. It's just relocating small teams to other spaces.β
βThe dominant political story of the year has been the 270-day-long speakership of Representative Kevin McCarthy, whose slim majority in the House of Representatives has enabled a far-right rebellion to exert more weight over the lower chamber. The battle between the rebellious Freedom Caucus and McCarthy has been at the heart of an averted debt ceiling crisis and the annual budget debate nearly devolving into a government shutdown.β
βThe cash strapped US Postal Service is seeking approval to raise the price of first class mail beginning in July. The agency received temporary approval to raise prices for priority mail deliveries later this month by 8% to offset the cost of fuel.β
βLebanese president Joseph Aoun says the Lebanese ambassador in Washington had a phone call Friday with the Israeli ambassador there. It's the first official contact between the two countries since 1983. Aoun says there will be face to face talks Tuesday at the state department focusing on a ceasefire.β
βReturning from space is risky. The spacecraft will reach speeds up to 25,000 miles per hour and could experience temperatures of up to 5,000 degrees Fahrenheit once it hits the atmosphere. It will take thirteen minutes for the capsule to splash down under a canopy of parachutes.β
Viktor Orban ousted in historic Hungarian election defeat
βMagdia's victory was hard won in an electoral system that over the past sixteen years, Orban had stacked in his favor from gerrymandering to controlling the media. As Brussels now looks forward to working with a more pro European Hungarian leader, Moscow and the current White House administration have lost in Orban, a key ally in Europe.β
Withheld foreign aid halts global contraception access
βIt's a really, challenging period, but as as I'm talking of, I will say that now we are not paid, but these are our neighbors, the people we share, the churches. She says she's now counseling neighbors through unintended pregnancies.β
Israel creates buffer zone inside Southern Lebanon territory
βIsraeli air strikes hit the Mediterranean resort city of Tyre and border villages Israel says it's seizing from Lebanon to create what it calls a buffer zone where Hezbollah can't fire rockets. The Lebanese Red Cross says one of its ambulance teams was directly targeted by an Israeli drone, killing one paramedic and wounding another.β
Swalwell suspends campaign amid sexual assault allegations
βCongressman Eric Swalwell says he is suspending his campaign for California governor as he faces allegations of sexual assault, which he says are false. He had already decided not to run for reelection to the house. President Trump says The US will blockade the Strait Of Hormuz.β
βA wartime spike in energy prices triggered a big jump in the cost of living last month. Consumer prices in March were up 3.3% from a year ago. That's the largest annual increase in twenty two months. Prices jumped almost 1% during the month after The US launched its war with Iran.β
Artemis II crew returns after moon-orbiting mission
βThe four Artemis two astronauts are now heading in get to medical evaluations, this after a ten day journey to the far side of the moon. The spacecraft had a near perfect return to Earth Friday evening, landing in the Pacific Ocean just off the coast of San Diego, and then the astronauts were imported into a ship.β
Major oil mergers signaled consolidation in the energy sector
βAdditionally, the latter half of the year saw many large mergers and acquisitions, some of the largest announcements being in oil and gas with ExxonMobil's purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources for nearly $60 billion and Chevron's acquisition of Hess Corporation for $50 billion. Both were in October and pending regulatory approval prior to closure.β
βA sharp spike in gasoline prices during the war triggered a surge of inflation last month. Consumer prices in March were up 3.3% from a year ago. That's the biggest annual increase in twenty two months. Stripping out volatile energy and food prices, core inflation was 2.6%, high enough to make the Federal Reserve cautious about additional cuts to interest rates.β
Strait of Hormuz traffic collapses amid energy crisis
βIran effectively closed down the Strait Of Hormuz, this, 21 mile wide waterway, and very few ships have been going in or out of the Gulf in recent weeks. It was more than a 100 ships a day before the war. Now it's just a handful.β
Global diplomatic pressure mounts - International leaders are intensifying calls for a ceasefire in the latest regional conflict to prevent a broader humanitarian crisis.
βThe resilience of the American consumer continues to surprise analysts, even as borrowing costs remain at decade highs.β
βAs the sale of US made electric vehicles continue to slump, China EV sales are having a banner year. China's Association of Automobile Manufacturers says experts have plug in hybrids and EVs in March rose more than 140 over the same time last year.β
βIran is charging $2,000,000 for every ship that passes through the Strait Of Hormuz. And they have said in the agreement that they have full sovereignty over the Strait, and now they're gonna charge people for moving goods through it. So I guess the question is, one, do you think that that holds? And two, how significant is it from an inflation perspective? Because it seems like that is, yes, ships can pass through, but now there's a toll.β