“South Pars, this is the largest gas field in Iran. It's accounting for about 70% of their gas production. It's actually the same gas field as what we call the North Field in Qatar, because this is the same infrastructure. And in fact, this is the largest gas field in the world. But gas is very important for Iran's economy. This is about, actually, 70% of their primary energy consumption. And almost 90% of their electricity is coming from gas. So you can understand that if you are attacking South Pars, you are really attacking the Iranian energy system and its economy.”
“My worst case scenario on the supply side is that we go again for an over attack on Cargaylon or South Pars and then as a retaliation, there is more damage being done on the LNG facilities in Qatar, which is impacting not only the existing ones, but also the ones which are under construction, which basically means the LNG oversupply story, that's gone forever. But I do hope that a full destruction is not going to happen, because otherwise people are going to start calling me Cassandra, which I don't want to happen.”
“When you are looking at the shareholding of the LNG liquefaction plans, you can see that besides Qatar Energy, there is a name which is popping up again and again. This is Exxon. And when there was an attack on Karagaylon, I think the Iranians were pretty clear that the retaliation should the oil facilities be attacked would be on energy infrastructure with the US shareholding. So for me on the gas side, the first in line was Ras Laffan. The second thing is that impacting the global LNG market is impacting a lot of different countries in Asia and in Europe. And by doing so, I think maybe the Iranians are thinking, we want to do a little bit of divide and rule game.”
“We may be very soon in a situation where the incremental LNG supply in 2026 is actually going to be zero. The worst-case scenario would be, in my opinion, if LNG liquefaction plants in Qatar are not restarting at all during 2026, which would mean that we would be roughly back to where we were in 2021 in terms of global LNG supply. So, that would be a very substantial shock to the global LNG market.”
Ras Laffan strike could knock out Qatar LNG for 3-5 years
“An attack on Ras Laffan, this has always been my nightmare, my Armageddon scenario. I mean, I give that as a case study to my student at Sciences Po. So just to say how much I am worried about that. And apparently, well, I was wide to be worried. We can estimate that there has been one megatrans and one of the smaller LNG facilities. It's certain that the damage has been relatively extensive because I don't think the CEO would have said something like it's going to take three to five years.”
“The first one is bringing back Russian gas through Ukraine. Not an easy one, because I can imagine the discussion with President Zelensky. So by the way, we need to bring Russian gas back. You can imagine how well that would go. The second one would be to bring back Russian gas through Belarus and then landing in Poland. Given that Poland was the first country cut by Russia in April 2022, it's not going to be easy. And the third option would be to restart the only part of the Nord Stream pipeline, which has apparently not been impacted.”
“One of the main risks attached to US LNG is the price risk because most of US LNG is actually priced on Henry Hub. I know what my friends in the US LNG industry are going to tell me. No problem, Anne-Sophie, don't worry. There is plenty of gas available at $3 or $4 per MBtu. Maybe they're right, but I think this is still a very significant risk that a lot of buyers are thinking about. And the second thing that buyers are thinking about is diversity. And given that I teach energy security, the very first thing that I teach my student is diversity, diversity, diversity, diversity.”
Asia may skip LNG and leap to renewables plus coal
“In many Southeast Asian countries for which, I mean, gas be above $10 per MBTU is already pretty expensive. So at 20, of course, this is outrageously expensive. So we might see a lot of other countries thinking a little bit like Pakistan and turning pleasingly towards renewable while keeping coal at the same time. So basically skipping the LNG stage, which is exactly what I think a lot of LNG exporters, including in the US, this is exactly what we're thinking will not happen.”
