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“The view I've had and the view I'm sticking with is, Hormuz is all that matters, and every day that it stays closed, it brings us closer to a non-linear break in supply chains. And my view has been that that's not going to be good for markets, if slash when that happens. That's why I highlighted that Japanese Toilet Maker today, down 7% on the day. If they had gone up 7% or up 10% on announcing that they couldn't make anything anymore because of supply chains, I probably would have to say, all right, well, maybe I'm just not getting this.”

“When it started, my worst case scenario was that this could end up being a US Suez 1956 moment. And now, seven weeks in, Hormuz is still closed. Supply chain issues are just now really starting to stack up. I think where this is all headed is forcing the US into a choice. I think it means we're forced to pull back or we're forced to print money into an oil spike to contain the bond market, or we let rates rise in a recession and an oil spike and let the economy take the hit.”

“I think what people don't understand is the last tanker to transit successfully on February 28th before all of this stuff started, that Hormuz oil will arrive at its destination next week. That's how long it takes for oil that's flowing through the Strait of Hormuz to get to where it's going. So there hasn't been any supply disruption yet. And the actual disruption of supply hasn't even started yet. You don't just call up the captains of those VLCCs and say, hey, engage your warp drive and get to Asia in a week instead of a month and a half.”

“I've been doing this 30 years in investment research and I've only seen two other times like this that I can recall and the first is in 4Q07, where I was seeing the US economy and financial system collapse in real time. Yet, the equity markets hit an all-time record on the S&P in the fourth quarter of 07. It also reminds me of 1Q20 when obviously with COVID, markets were just sort of blissfully complacent. And then Tom Hanks said he had COVID, and then they shut things down, and the markets absolutely had a fit.”

“People in finance are just sort of, well, hey, just hit control P and we'll print oil, or the oil will be where it needs to be, and the fertilizer will be where it needs to be. Because, oh, by the way, on fertilizer, as I'm sure you know, Erik, we're on the clock for a growing season. Like, you're not gonna be throwing fertilizer down in June or July. It's too late at that point. If that happens, like hundreds of millions of people could starve to death.”

“Bitcoin whales are accumulating at record numbers. 270,000 Bitcoin alone in the last 30 days. This is the highest rate since 2013. What do they know? They must know something that we don't know, right? They have to be trading on insider information. There's no way it's just a bunch of guys buying Bitcoin randomly.”

“Goldman has proposed a income Bitcoin ETF. This is obviously a new kind of financial product in line with what BlackRock has proposed, where effectively they're going to sell options against the underlying position in the ETFs where you can earn a yield, and I guess your upside is a bit more capped than just buying Bitcoin. But I mean, Goldman Sachs, man, I haven't heard their name in the conversation before this.”

“Morgan Stanley is special. It's a sell-side bank. It's not buy-side. And it is a wire house. And it's the biggest wire house. And these are traditionally the most conservative, all the advisors. You know, there's some RIAs in Missouri who are much more progressive than the wire houses. Wire houses are like the most conservative. Like, even to get on their platform, it takes like years.”

“I told all the coiners that the boomers were going to be stronger hands than they thought. And I was told by even other serious analysts that these boomers were going to look at the ETFs as orange poker chips. And they were going to be gone like the wind as soon as there was any volatility. And the exact opposite happened. I think the most was $8Bn in outflows during the worst stretch.”

“iBit has 2.1 billion in year-to-day flows. That is astonishing given it's down, what's it down year-to-date? Like, I don't know, 12, 15%, something like that. Anyway, and it's down, what, it went on a, at one point, I think it was 50%. It's just done such Herculean things in the past two years. It's easy to say, oh, only two billion, or it's only ranked 50th in flows, but this is astonishing given the downturn.”

“The market is just a giant derivatives trade. It's what happens when everything gets so centralized and everyone's asset management looks the same. If you have this beta neutral book, that's generally a lot of hedge funds, that's the guys moving the books around. And it's a lot of like, they do things in unison as much as they think they're original thinkers.”

“The dollar seems to be structurally flawed in the sense that even a bigger oil moved this year than 2022, but a much smaller dollar move. And so that when you look at correlations over the last week or two, it's very clear a lot of this has come on the back of the dollar getting pushed lower.”

“Retail's chasing the strength hard, buying on their platform is unusually aggressive for an up day. They're in the 90th percentile in call buying now. So now, retail is chasing to the upside calls, which is like, that's where you just got to step back and be like, okay, this got really wild.”

“Inflation is going to continue. The Fed's not going to get in front of it. So who's left holding the bag here? And it's regular people. And then he looked at the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, all time lows in consumer sentiment. Where does that track? Tracks into the midterms.”

“The policy is pump stock market. That's what it is. I feel like there's room here for them to do something. Obviously, the cost that we just talked about is inflation. But who cares about inflation if the stock market is going up, right?”

“Bitcoin just smashed through $72K after a surprise ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran triggered a massive short squeeze.”

“Bitcoin just smashed through $72K after a surprise ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran triggered a massive short squeeze.”

“ETF inflows are accelerating, institutions are stepping in aggressively.”

“whales are selling into the move, creating a rare and powerful market dynamic.”

“Wall Street is going all-in on crypto with new products, expanding access, and pushing toward a tokenized financial future.”

“BlackRock quietly accumulated 3% of the entire Bitcoin supply, over 700,000 Bitcoin. I don't know the exact number, but safe to say they are the largest hodler of Bitcoin outside of Satoshi himself, and potentially Max Keiser. At today's prices, that's 72 billion in Bitcoin exposure, a staggering figure clearly by any measure.”

“NASDAQ's David Bailey's KindlyMD kicks off their Bitcoin treasury with a massive $679 million buy. If you're not familiar with David Bailey, he's the CEO of Bitcoin Magazine, and he is Trump's Bitcoin advisor. Remember last week we discussed he was going to be launching his treasury firm with a billion dollar purchase? Well, he got the ball rolling with $679 million.”

“President Trump said Bitcoin takes a lot of pressure off the dollar. It is much more important than anything we have invested in. I got to agree with that, but Max reiterates it obliterates the dollar, but it's important that you don't understand this yet.”

“On-chain analytics firm Glassnode highlighted the growing divergence between institutional demand and the price action. Investment vehicles, notably the US-bought Bitcoin ETFs, were seeing inflows despite the weakening on-chain signals, such as volume. The sustainability of institutional flows and renewed buyer conviction will determine whether this contraction stabilizes.”

“The Daily chart, as you can see, big ass red corrective candle on the day, not looking so good, and it's huge, at least compared to yesterday. But the silver lining, there's a bull flag formation outline here; we also have the Barney the Purple bull flag indicator right there at 146.4.”

“When a scary macro event hits, crypto usually doesn't behave like digital gold in the first reaction. It behaves like a high-beta, high-leverage risk asset, especially in the first wave, because it trades 24-7, it's liquid, and it's packed with leverage that can be forced out. That's why you saw Bitcoin lurch lower on the headline flow, and you saw the usual second-order effect where altcoins, which are basically beta on beta, got hit even harder.”

“A lot of that pressure has been coming from the most important marginal flow source of the last cycle, US-spot Bitcoin ETFs. Sustained outflows have been tracked for weeks, framed as institutional de-risking while Bitcoin trades in a pressured band. And when ETF flow is negative, it's not just sentiment, it's mechanical. It is literally reduced marginal demand.”

“When traditional venues were closed or thin, on-chain oil-linked futures on hyperliquid surged about 5% after the strikes, with oil USDH perps jumping toward $71 alongside millions in trading volume and open interest. This matters because it shows what crypto has become: not just coins, but a parallel financial system that reprices macro risk in real time. Traditional oil markets don't trade like that on a weekend. Crypto does.”

“On-chain data supports that emotional strain. Santiment highlighted XRP's largest realized loss spike since 2022, roughly $1.93 billion in weekly realized losses. That's the kind of stat that tends to show up near capitulation moments, when holders finally sell at a loss after weeks of pain. Now, a capitulation signal is not a guaranteed bottom. It's simply evidence that fear has reached a point where weak hands are giving up.”

“None of this is random. We knew the set up was there. Not because anyone can predict a strike or a headline, but because the market structure was already fragile. When flows are negative, when liquidity is thinner, when sentiment is jumpy, and when key technical levels are sitting right below price like trap doors, you don't need a lot of force to push the market down the stairs. And that's exactly what happened.”

“I found the actual statistical analysis to be incredibly weak because the way you'd really do it is you'd have the corpus of all the Satoshi candidates and then all of Satoshi's work, and then you would just compare it systematically. You wouldn't say, well, let's assume it's this guy, and let's find the things that match.”

“The most compelling piece, I think, is that one of the citations in the white paper is this, paper that was it was the result of a conference that was held in Belgium or Luxembourg. And the conference proceedings, the written version was only made available in a couple universities in the region. And and, of course, Len, he studied in Belgium.”

“I'm actually I'm warming up to that because I what I did this morning was I had Claude and chat review all the evidence again, and chat actually ran for two hours. I went through the evidence for the kind of, you know, 10 most commonly named candidates. It doesn't fit any of them, and I am actually starting to believe that for that reason, that it it might have been more than one person.”

“As this quantum thing gets closer, you're gonna wanna probably, you know, do something to preserve your coins so it don't get stolen by a quantum attacker. If you are alive, you definitely have an obligation and, this urgency to weigh in either recovery of coins or at a very minimum, just make your feelings known.”

“There is, another investigation coming out soon that I've been made aware of. Finding Satoshi. Coinbase is involved. Jameson Lopf, I think, said it was actually a reasonable attempt, which in my book, Jameson is the barometer of whether a Satoshi discovery is legitimate or not.”

“It means literally every American and every American institution will have exposure to the largest crypto exchange. That's a meaningful thing. I'm at a TradFi conference today, and I trialed this as a talking point. It mattered to people. It seemed to suggest to people that this industry has grown up.”

“Coinbase in the S&P means everybody's going to be exposed to Bitcoin, whether they like it or not. That's a big, big, big deal. And so passive investors associated with ETFs and the like, the vanguards of the world and others are going to have some small connection to Bitcoin based on the fact that Coinbase is going to be in the S&P 500.”

“I've always thought the risk. People have tried to pin risk on micro strategy. They're very sophisticated about their sort of debt to their Bitcoin holdings. The risk has always been somebody trying to outdo micro strategy. And I do worry that we're moving up that escalator of people who want to stick their neck out above Michael Saylor.”

“If Bitcoin, which it will, goes down 30, 40%, whatever, and some of these guys start to panic and do want to make people whole or want to have a company that exists, they're going to sell the Bitcoin and that's how you get the liquidation cascading, you know, sell, panic, sell, panic, sell, panic, sell.”

“But for now, it's absolutely true that companies are buying more than 100% of the supply of Bitcoin, right? And that is a good thing for price. That's one of the reasons we're up so much. And I suspect that that's going to continue, right? We think companies will buy 300 to 500,000 Bitcoin this year.”

“Niantic isn't just a gaming company; it's a 3D mapping company using the world's players as its data collection army.”

“Niantic isn't just a gaming company; it's a 3D mapping company using the world's players as its data collection army.”

“Physical AI is the new operating system for modern computing, and it represents a 50 trillion dollar market opportunity.”

“Physical AI is the new operating system for modern computing, and it represents a 50 trillion dollar market opportunity.”

“Capital is a coward, and right now it is fleeing to wherever it feels most protected from the escalating conflict in the Middle East.”

“Capital is a coward, and right now it is fleeing to wherever it feels most protected from the escalating conflict in the Middle East.”