WATCH DEFLATION

“What's happening though is that's not what we're seeing in actual price because we live also in a credit world, where credit inflation and credit creation is a big driver of our growth model. Technology as a whole is deflationary, but these compounding things like unprecedented levels of debt make the equation harder to reason about unless you anchor to the certain truths of demographics and labor.”

“It is a myth that the Federal Reserve prints money; in reality, commercial banks create the vast majority of our money supply through lending. When these banks lose the appetite for risk and stop expanding their balance sheets, the money supply effectively shrinks, creating a drag on growth that no amount of bank reserves can fix.”

“In 1960, health care was only about 5% of US GDP, but we now know today it's over 20% of US GDP. That number alone kind of tells you people are living longer and health care is getting more expensive, which means that consumption actually has to be fulfilled. This will probably come from some kind of asset disposition that the older generation has acquired throughout their working years.”

“What people misunderstand is that we are in a period of massive credit contraction where the destruction of debt and credit is far outpacing the ability of central banks to inject liquidity. When the eurodollar system stalls, the global economy faces a liquidity trap that is inherently deflationary regardless of what the headline numbers suggest.”

“Wealth concentration now exceeds even the Gilded Age, and when you bring in the lens of AI, the fog of war is so thick that it prevents us from being able to see into the future. I was inspired to seek truth by trying to anchor what you at least know for sure, because it gives me great peace when I can underwrite the things I know with certainty and reorient my entire investing mindset.”

“As the legacy credit-based system continues to struggle under the weight of massive debt and demographic decline, Bitcoin stands out as a neutral, global reserve. It is the only asset that allows for the preservation of value without being someone else's liability, making it essential for the transition to a more stable financial order.”

“Demographics are destiny in economics, and the aging populations in the West, Japan, and China are a massive deflationary force. You simply cannot have high inflation and high growth when the working-age population is shrinking and the velocity of money is trending toward zero as people move into retirement.”

“The consumer price index is a lagging indicator that fails to capture the true health of the economy because it only looks at a narrow, manipulated basket of goods. Everyone is looking at the CPI and screaming inflation, but they are missing the underlying breakdown in the credit markets that signals the exact opposite trend is taking hold.”

“Central banks are not the all-powerful actors they are portrayed to be; they are essentially following the bond market and reacting to data that is already months old. By the time the Fed realizes they need to pivot or lower interest rates, the credit markets have usually already broken, making their response too little and too late.”

“A third of the world by countries that represent about a third of the world's population, they are all in declining mode. That's a fact. And if you look at the top ten first wave economies, they account for about 30% of the global population and about 70% of the world economy GDP; they are all declining. This is a slow moving train wreck that we have to be cognizant for.”

“The value of labor is reaching zero because I think technology as a whole is deflationary. I think that's the punchline. If technology works the way that is allowing for productivity growth that resets the jump to universality in ways that is unimaginable, it's really deflationary. And so you should expect a lot of things to maybe go down in price.”